Laurel Mountain Ski Resort snow report

231 FXUS61 KPBZ 050650 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 250 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Additional message created discussing dense fog potential through sunrise this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fog, locally dense, may develop through sunrise this morning while currently impacting travel along I-80. 2) Thunderstorms, favoring afternoon/evening periods, remain likely through Monday while posing a decreasing damaging wind threat but steady localized flooding risk. 3) Ensembles trending toward a fairly active week featuring limited "dry" periods but with low hazard probabilities. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Moist near-surface conditions combined with cloud clearing and light winds has resulted in the development of widespread dense fog along the I-80 corridor. With little in the way of wind or clouds to potentially disrupt fog processes in this area, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued through 9am when diurnal heating/mixing eases those conditions. Outside of the Advisory, fog development remains possible as well but may be more localized within river valleys or lower elevations that doesn`t reach Advisory criteria. Regardless, drivers may need to be alert to the potential for rapid changes in visibility where fog has/will form, with visibilities potentially less than half a mile. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper Ohio River Valley is expected to remain in the seasonably moist (PWATs around 90th-95th percentile) light southwest flow ahead of a sagging upper trough sitting to the west today into Monday. This pattern offers slightly improved jet support/lift, creating higher confidence in thunderstorm development favoring the afternoon/evening hours though weak surface lift (and potential reliance on prior convective outflow boundaries) lends to more variability in storm positioning and progression. For Today: Enough surface heating combined with moisture thermal profiles results in SBCAPE values rising between 1200-2000 J/kg while weak shear sits near 20-25kts, enough to rise the (low) potential for large hail. Less amounts of dry air aloft does lower the damaging wind threat but that remains a possibility especially in wet downbursts. These variables best align southeast of Pittsburgh where the Slight severe outlook is positioned, but any area that maximizes surface heating/destabilization could experience similar severe risks. Adding to this, warm thermal profiles and fairly weak steering flow provide fuel to a localized flash flooding threat that was already presented by the higher CAPE/high PWAT environment capable of high rainfall rates. Due to the lack of surface forcing and weak shear, it is very difficult to pinpoint any one area/region more likely to experience flash flooding and those instances may still be fairly isolated (versus widespread), thus no Flood Watch will be issued at this time. For Monday: Broadly speaking, there is little to add to the discussion beyond copying what was said for today as hi-res guidance trends maintain similar CAPE/shear/PWAT profiles. Potential differentiating factors...potential for extra cloud cover to limit heating and reducing buoyancy development (maintain the flood threat but further eroding wind/hail threats)...and/or subtle mid-level ridging working around the upper trough that offers enough subsidence to displace convective activity to the north/east. Like today, hi-res modeling favors areas southeast of Pittsburgh to maximize the environmental parameters to reach those severe/flood risks but confidence is low on this occuring. KEY MESSAGE 3... The sagging trough slowly shifts east the region through the latter portion of the week, acting to limit airmass changes to escape the daily potential for diurnally driven thunderstorms. Favored areas are more likely to be dictated by the subtle areas of jet-induced lift/sink around the trough as well as residual storm outflows because surface frontogenesis and wind is expected to remain fairly non-existent. There is variance in how quickly the upper trough becomes positioned to the east, meaning variance on when the "lull" period may occur. Quicker solutions offer lower PoPs by Wednesday afternoon and temperature climbing a few degrees above normal; slower solutions result in a continuation of "chance" or so PoPs for Wednesday as temperature sits near average. Of higher confidence is that a more progressive upper trough is favored to cross Thursday into Friday and continue the broken record of shower/thunderstorm chances. Though environments are subject to change within the summer season, initial outlooks and guidance suggests most of the periods offer limited severe/flood risks to monitor. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Difficult TAF period through 14z due to large variances caused by areas becoming and/or remaining cloud free (trend toward IFR/LIFR fog/stratus development) and any passing thick deck that disrupts the radiational cooling process. Most sites do have the potential for IFR or lower fog/stratus given the moist surface boundary layer and light wind but expect sudden changes/bouncing between restriction levels along with fairly large variabilities in conditions over short distances. VFR (save for a brief MVFR cu period after heating initiates) is likely after 14z before diurnally driven thunderstorms develop between 18z-00z. Weak surface forcing and limited upper support creates uncertainties in timing and coverage of convection, so expect afternoon amendments to adjust for the latest analysis/trends. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds and quickly drop visibilities to 2 miles or less. The moist environment with some clearing portends to potential stratus/fog development at the end/after the TAF period but similar potential for bouncy and areal variability in conditions. Outlook... Morning fog and stratus restrictions giving way to MVFR/VFR cu and diurnally driven thunderstorms can be expected through Monday, but potentially extend through Wednesday as the upper trough driving the weather slowly shifts east. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ008-009- 015-016. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...Frazier