Laurel Mountain Ski Resort snow report

352 FXUS61 KPBZ 140740 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 340 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Passing cold front this evening will increase the potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes along a squall line; SPC added a 2% tornado risk for portions of the region && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms expected this afternoon/evening with advancing cold front 2) Quiet weather expected Monday through early Wednesday; monitoring potential hazardous weather on Thursday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue developing to our west and move into the region early this morning. Warm, moist advection associated with southwesterly flow and precipitation will likely prime the environment enough for favorable strong to severe storms along a cold front this afternoon and evening, mainly between 2pm and 8pm. The primary threat today will be damaging wind gusts along and ahead of the cold front, supported by 40-50kts of effective shear. As a result, scattered tree damage and power outages are possible from late this afternoon into the early evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has also introduced a 2% tornado risk. A number of model soundings suggest sufficient low-level stretching of updrafts with lower cloud bases and shallow instability (3CAPE between 100J/kg to 150J/kg) for tornadic development. Small hail is possible, but the overall thermodynamic profile is not favorable for significant hail development. Forecast soundings indicate an elevated freezing level and a deep moist layer, both of which tend to limit hail growth. Climatologically, updrafts would likely need to exceed 30,000ft to support hail production of a quarter or bigger. Between 9pm and 11pm, the cold front is expected to exit southeast and the threat for thunderstorms rapidly decreases. A few isolated light showers may linger early Monday morning before dawn. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, expect dry and below-average temperatures Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Lingering clouds and cold advection from the northwest will likely keep high temperatures in the upper-60s/low-70s on Monday, 10 degrees below average. By Thursday, a warm frontal passage could bring rising 500mb heights and higher dewpoints back to the region. Along with this are indications of enhanced flow, with 45-50 knots at 700mb and 85-95 knots at 500mb on ensemble progs. This combination suggests an increasing risk of severe weather on this day, associated with a potential cold frontal passage from Great Lakes low pressure. Machine-learning guidance from NCAR and CSU agree with this assessment, with probabilities for severe weather increasing over the last 24 hours to 30% to 60%. SPC also has already highlighted Thursday for the risk as well. Given the instability/shear combination that could be realized, this is a potentially volatile situation that could present the risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather threat, multiple embedded shortwaves may promote repeated rounds of precipitation, raising concerns for training storms and localized flooding. At this time, the greatest flood risk appears more likely to focus over areas just west of the Upper Ohio Valley, WPC has introduced a "Slight" risk for flooding with this latest forecast update in central Ohio. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue for all terminals early this morning despite passing showers and isolated storms with an approaching disturbance. Cigs will lower after 12Z but will range between 4-5kft. Confidence remains high that showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front between 19Z to 23Z. At minimum, users can expect heavy rain with gusty winds between 20kts to locally 30-40kts in any storm along with dips to MVFR/IFR restrictions. Pending on the degree of heating prior to the line passage, which is dependent on the coverage of morning showers, storms could see an enhancement of both lightning and strong wind potential. Most likely timing from severe storms: ~21z for ZZV and FKL, ~22z for PIT and surrounding terminals, and ~23z for LBE and MGW. Outside of the convective line, moisture convergence ahead of the cold front may result in patchy MVFR to IFR cigs and vis. In the wake of the cold front, mostly after 02Z, lingering MVFR cigs are expected with cold advection and residual moisture within the boundary layer. Winds will likely prevail from the northwest. Outlook... VFR conditions expected to increase throughout the day on Monday. Quiet, dry, and VFR conditions are likely Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...Hefferan