Seven Springs Mountain Resort snow report

677 FXUS61 KPBZ 160602 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 202 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the latest forecast. Continuing to monitor the potential for severe weather late Wednesday into Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry today, with scattered showers tonight 2) Potential for severe storms late Wednesday into Thursday 3) Shower chances Friday, then dry Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather is expected again today as high pressure moves east across the region. Warmer temperatures are expected, though readings will still be around 5 degrees below average for this time of the year. A shortwave trough is then expected to advance eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight. Scattered showers are expected with the approach and passage of the trough, though overall moisture is limited. There could be a thunderstorm as well, though instability is also expected to be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong surface low is progged to track across Michigan into southern Ontario late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The low`s associated warm front is also expected to lift north across the Upper Ohio Valley region during that time. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase with the approach and passage of the warm front. A strong low-mid level jet is expected to overspread the region Wednesday night. Wind speeds at 850mb are progged at 55-65 kt, with 50-60kt at 700 mb. Shear from 0-6km is expected to range from 60-70kt, with MU CAPE 500-1000 j/kg Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. After the initial passage of the warm front, additional convection is likely overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning along the low level jet axis, and a possible pre cold frontal trough. Most available CAMS indicate thunderstorms continuing across the region as they move east overnight, but differ on specific details. Even if instability diminishes, the shear and strength of the jet should be enough to maintain some severe weather potential Wednesday night into early Thursday. Damaging wind and tornadoes are possible with speed/directional shear resulting in curved hodographs. Hail will also be possible. The low is expected to continue to track to the NE across eastern Ontario on Thursday, pulling a cold front south across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected along the front, though timing and speed of redevelopment is in question. Earlier convection will likely affect the potential redevelopment of storms on Thursday. At this time, ensemble model progs indicate the greatest instability should be from near PIT and areas south, though uncertainty exists due to the factors listed above. Shear remains high (0-6km 60-70kt)with strong flow aloft continuing. Again, damaging wind and tornadoes would be the main hazards. In addition to the severe weather potential, there is some potential for locally heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. Rapid storm motion with the strong flow aloft could be a limiting factor, though any training of storms could result in localized flooding. Current NBM probabilities of 1 inch of rain currently range from 20-40 percent. KEY MESSAGE 3... Another upper trough is expected to cross the region Friday, maintaining scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Building high pressure should return dry weather to the region for Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR is expected today as high pressure moves east across the region. Model soundings and the CU rule indicate a scattered diurnal cu field should develop with surface heating. Increasing high clouds are also expected ahead of the next approaching shortwave. This wave should bring scattered showers to the region tonight. Included a prob30 mention for the most likely times at ZZV, FKL, and PIT, with these airports being the first to see rain chances. Minimal instability could result in an isolated thunderstorm, but chances are too low for TAF inclusion. Outlook... Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday, with a potential for severe storms as well. Scattered showers and localized restrictions are possible Friday with a crossing shortwave trough. VFR returns Saturday under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM