Bristol Mountain Ski Resort Snow Report

920 FXUS61 KBUF 090644 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 144 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool and unsettled with lake enhanced showers gradually diminishing today. 2) A few lake enhanced showers will continue Tuesday across the North Country, otherwise dry weather returns for the rest of the area. 3) Colder and unsettled weather returns late in the week, with some wet snow potential mainly across higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and unsettled with lake enhanced showers gradually diminishing today. A strong shortwave will dive southeast across the eastern Great Lakes early this morning, phasing with the closed low over the Canadian Maritimes by this afternoon. Forcing for ascent and deep moisture associated with the passing shortwave will continue to support a few synoptically forced showers this morning, along with embedded areas of lake enhanced showers. Boundary layer flow will veer to the northwest through the morning hours, carrying the lake enhanced showers from east of the lakes before daybreak to southeast of the lakes after sunrise. The best coverage of showers will be found across Central NY and the Tug Hill region this morning, and also across the Chautauqua Ridge from upslope enhancement. Deep moisture will quickly depart late morning through the afternoon, with a commensurate weakening of lake effect showers from west to east. Most areas should be dry by mid afternoon, with the exception of Central NY where a weak band of scattered showers may persist into this evening on WNW flow. A few spotty showers may continue this evening across Central NY, moving north across the Tug Hill region overnight as boundary layer flow backs to the west and eventually southwest. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail tonight for the rest of the area. It will stay quite breezy today, with northwest winds gusting in the 25 to 35 mph range. The strongest gusts will be along the lakeshores and the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes. KEY MESSAGE 2...A few lake enhanced showers will continue Tuesday across the North Country, otherwise dry weather returns for the rest of the area. Another fast moving mid level shortwave and associated surface low will race across Ontario and Quebec Tuesday in progressive WNW flow across southern Canada. Forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave and a modest increase in moisture will clip the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley. This will combine with lingering lake induced instability to support a few showers across the North Country Tuesday through Tuesday evening. The most persistent showers will be found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks with an added boost of upslope flow. Otherwise, the rest of the area will remain dry. Winds will increase again as a 30 to 40 knot low level jet crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support gusts of 20 to 30 mph areawide, and up to 35 mph across the Niagara Frontier. KEY MESSAGE 3...Colder and unsettled weather returns late in the week, with some wet snow potential mainly across higher terrain. Forecast uncertainty abounds for late this week into next weekend with a wide spread in deterministic and ensemble guidance with respect to the strength and track of the late week system. A strong ridge will build across the Rockies during the second half of the week, forcing downstream height falls over the eastern CONUS, with a deep trough and broad mid level closed low established by Friday. A southern stream and northern stream shortwave will phase over the Ohio Valley by Thursday, allowing for a surface low to deepen with time. Height falls and DPVA from the approaching trough combined with moisture transport and frontogenesis ahead of the deepening low over the Ohio Valley will support increasing chances of rain from southwest to northeast on Thursday. Precip type should stay all rain through Thursday with colder air still displaced well north of the US/Canadian border. The Ohio Valley low will give way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis along the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday night, with the resulting coastal low moving northeast along or offshore of the New England coast Friday through Saturday. This phase of the system is highly uncertain, with some recent deterministic models and ensemble clusters showing a weaker and farther southeast track. In general, expect precipitation chances to continue Friday through Saturday, either from the system itself or from cool north/northeast upslope flow and a lake response. The airmass is not particularly cold, so higher terrain will have the best chance of changing over to wet snow, with precip type staying rain for much of the time across lower elevations until the coldest air aloft arrives Friday night through Saturday. NBM and LREF Grand Ensembles suggest a 30 to 50 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow accumulation across the highest terrain Friday through Saturday, but the probabilities of more significant 6 inch or greater amounts remains very low at less than 10 percent. The turn towards colder weather will be temporary, with strong ensemble support for a warming trend and return to above average temperatures later next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cool, moist northwest flow will continue to support areas of lake enhanced rain showers this morning, with the best coverage across Central NY, the Tug Hill region, and the Chautauqua Ridge. Most of the showers will be light, although a few brief moderate showers will be found east and southeast of the lakes through early this morning with associated VSBY restrictions. MVFR CIGS will expand in coverage early this morning, then persist through early afternoon. It will remain quite breezy today, with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range, strongest along the lakeshores and across the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes. Winds will diminish this evening. Deep moisture will quickly depart this afternoon, with most of the lake enhanced rain showers tapering off and ending from west to east. A few scattered showers may linger tonight across Central NY, eventually moving north across the Tug Hill region late tonight as boundary layer flow backs to the west and eventually southwest. CIGS will improve to VFR from west to east from mid afternoon through this evening as deeper low level moisture exits. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR in most areas. MVFR across the North Country with a few showers likely. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and MVFR across the Tug Hill region. Thursday...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing. Friday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow across higher terrain. && .MARINE... Moderate to strong northwesterlies will continue to support solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes this morning. Winds will gradually diminish from west to east this afternoon through tonight, although Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue overnight along the nearshores east of Hamlin Beach. Winds will back to the southwest and quickly increase again Tuesday as low pressure passes by across Ontario and Quebec. This will bring another round of solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Winds will then diminish late Tuesday night through Wednesday as a surface ridge briefly builds across the lower Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock