Buena Vista Ski Area Snow Report

129 FXUS63 KFGF 140442 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a high chance for wetting rainfall Monday across the region which could impact outdoor activities. - Gusty winds are forecast Monday and Tuesday. This will bring minor wind impacts to parts of our area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure dominates the region this Sunday afternoon, offering ample sunshine, lights winds, and temperatures in the 60s. These conditions extend through tonight, with a slight increase in winds from the south. This will help temperatures from tanking into the 30s, with low temperatures forecast into the 40s. This should also help limit the chance for frost, however, there may be some localized spots in northwest MN near Lake of the Woods to Red Lakes area should winds stay calm with the help of denser tree cover. Still on track for widespread rainfall and gusty winds Monday morning, generally after 8 AM. A stronger upper shortwave trough turning closed low moves through the northern High Plains into south-central Canada on Monday. This will bring a plume of moisture and forcing as it approaches the region to the majority of the Dakotas and Minnesota. This will also bring gusty winds both ahead and behind the wave. Minor wind impacts are forecast in portions of northeast ND Monday night into Tuesday where a Wind Advisory is valid. Looking into mid to late next week, ensemble`s evolution of the upper pattern continues to show signs of upper ridging, indicating at temperature trend that may gradually increase. However, the lack of more robust upper ridging means we should not see a drastic increased trend in temperatures, likely keeping them closer to average to slightly above average. ...High chance for wetting rainfall... All guidance continues to agree in a leading plume of moisture and lift overspreading our entire region on Monday, bringing widespread rainfall for majority of the area. Within this plume will also likely be weak instability, offering convective elements to percolate within the widespread rainfall. While lightning is not expected to be widespread/numerous, there should still be low level of activity/isolated instances of lightning. This should bring at least a wetting rainfall to majority of the region generally between 0.2-0.7 inches of rainfall. Some guidance still offers a scenario that brings around 1 inch of rainfall. This will likely be more spotty/isolated due to convective elements needed, if it occurs in our area at all. ...Gusty winds Monday and Tuesday... As the system rapidly strengthens Monday, it will energize southerly winds aloft as early as Monday morning over eastern ND into west-central and northwest MN. With the help of topography and a tightening pressure gradient, south-southeast winds gusting 25-40 mph are forecast - highest within the southern Red River Valley. While not forecast at this time, there is a low chance scenario for isolated gusts 40-55 mph during this first wave of gusty winds within the Red River Valley. It also remains unclear how convective elements within rainfall may help transfer strong winds aloft toward the surface. As the day progresses and the system moves into south-central Canada, a cold front sweeps west to east across our area Monday evening. This will bring a second wave of gusty winds, this time out of the west/northwest, and likely to be a bit stronger. Gusts 30-50 mph are currently forecast, highest in Devils Lake basin of northeast ND. This is where a Wind Advisory is in effect Monday evening into Tuesday morning. There is a scenario where even higher gusts 50-60 mph become present as early as Monday afternoon with the help of deep mixing amid the dry slot of the strong low. This could then be followed by similar gusts behind the cold front. Should this occur, a High Wind Warning may be needed - although confidence in this scenario is low. Lowered confidence in this higher impact winds stem from uncertainties in timing of the dry slot as well as strength of cold air advection/mixing potential. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 A tricky TAF period as a combination of LLWS, MVFR to IFR ceilings, rain and winds all bring aviation impacts. The TAF period begins quiet through the overnight period. However, by Monday morning, rain will overspread TAF sites from west to east. Instability, while present, was too low to include any TSRA mention. With the rain will come gusty south/southeasterly winds and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Rain will clear late Monday afternoon. As it does, ceilings will slowly improve into Monday evening, eventually going SCT. Winds however will begin to shift to the west as a cold front arrives. This is particularly true at KDVL, where the front will be passing through by late evening. This front will keep winds elevated into the overnight period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006- 007-014-015-024-026-028-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Rafferty