Camelback Ski Area Snow Report

809 FXUS61 KPHI 130740 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 340 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated key message for storm system arriving Sunday afternoon and Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cold front sinks south Thursday and Friday, bringing gradually improving conditions with high pressure overhead Saturday and the first half of Sunday. 2. Unsettled weather returns Sunday afternoon into Monday. 3. Spotty minor tidal flooding possible during the Thursday evening high tide along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front sinks south Thursday and Friday, bringing gradually improving conditions with high pressure overhead Saturday and the first half of Sunday. The stationary front that has lingered across the region the last few days will slowly sink south as a cold front Thursday and Friday, allowing gradually improving conditions to filter in. Zonal flow aloft will keep Thursday largely dry, though cooler temperatures and lower humidity will not arrive until Friday and especially Saturday. A few showers will remain possible Friday night as the cold front finally shifts far south enough to allow surface high pressure to be overhead Saturday and into early Sunday. The forecast Saturday looks to be the driest, coolest, and least humid day through the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dew points only reaching the low to mid 60s. High pressure will not last, however, and shift offshore Sunday, bringing return flow back across the region, allowing temperatures to creep back up into the mid to upper 80s and the humidity to return. The morning will be largely dry with chances for rain returning by the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns Sunday afternoon into Monday. The next storm system arrives Sunday afternoon into Monday as a surface low moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eventually the Mid Atlantic, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Global guidance shows PWAT values surging back into the 2" range, increasing the potential for heavy downpours within any thunderstorms that develop. As a result, WPC does have much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic in a Marginal risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Furthermore, some modest instability may be in place to support a severe potential. That said, the overall synoptic level forcing is limited with the main driving force being a weak upper level trough. At this point, it remains too early to lock down any specifics for severe and flash flood, but we will need to monitor the potential over the next several days. KEY MESSAGE 3...Spotty minor tidal flooding possible during the Thursday evening high tide along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River. With the New Moon having occurred yesterday, astronomical tides for this evening`s high tide cycle will be near minor flooding thresholds for many places along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River, though tides are expected to begin trending downward as we move away from the New Moon. As of the latest forecast, only spotty minor flooding is possible with this evening`s high tide. Tidal flooding is not currently forecast for the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of tonight...Prevailing VFR. Periods of MVFR vis/cigs possible mainly north/west for ABE/RDG where some earlier precip occurred. Winds light and variable. Low confidence on restrictions for ABE/RDG. High confidence otherwise. Thursday...VFR. W-NW winds increasing to around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt in the afternoon. High confidence. Thursday night...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable. High confidence. Outlook... Friday and Friday night...Primarily VFR though restrictions possible (30-40%) with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving through late. Saturday through Sunday Morning...VFR. No significant weather. Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) at times with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms anticipated. && .MARINE... No prevailing marine hazards expected Thursday and Thursday night. Outlook... Friday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected. Sunday Night through Monday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as seas near 5 feet and southerly wind gusts near 25 kt. Rip Currents... For Thursday...A southwesterly wind around 5 to 10 mph. Breaking wave heights will remain around 2 feet or less with a southeasterly 1 foot swell around 6 to 8 seconds. Due to these conditions there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches. For Friday...Winds shift onshore but generally remain around 10 mph or less with breaking wave heights 2 feet or less with an east to southeasterly 1 foot swell around 8 to 10 seconds. So we will continue with a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJL AVIATION...MJL MARINE...MJL