Catamount Ski Area Snow Report

856 FXUS61 KALY 180652 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 252 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight risk ERO for Sunday has been largely removed from the NWS Albany forecast area. While we are still expecting widespread rain Sunday, flash flooding does not appear to be a concern for our forecast area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and cool weather returns today into tomorrow. 2) An area of low pressure will bring widespread rain to the region Sunday, followed by drier but cool weather for the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:50 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows the weak sfc low that brought showers yesterday departing well to our east. A trailing cold front is draped across the Mid Hudson Valley, with a second, stronger front approaching NY and the eastern Great Lakes from southern Canada. Ahead of this second front, abundant low-level moisture is leading to plenty of fog and low stratus. Dew points are also in the 60s, which is keeping temperatures quite warm for mid September. Overnight lows will range from 50s (high terrain) to mid 60s (valleys). Once the secondary cold front moves through this morning, the low clouds and fog should quickly mix out, with skies becoming partly to mostly clear. It will end up being a very pleasant day, with highs in the 60s (terrain) to mid 70s (valleys), lowering humidity, and breezy N/NW winds. Winds diminish tonight as a 1028+ mb sfc high builds into southern Canada. Temperatures will drop into the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). Despite the dry airmass, some patchy fog will be possible in the typical river valleys and near wetlands. With the ADKs being closest to the center of the sfc high, favorable radiational cooling conditions may allow for some patchy frost to develop in the sheltered areas, but coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant frost advisory issuance. Tomorrow, the sfc high slides overhead. There will be some mid and high clouds around, but it should be a very nice early-fall day with highs mainly in the 60s and continued low humidity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late Saturday night into Sunday, a sfc low will develop in response to an upper impulse and track along a stalled frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley towards/just south of our region. A strengthening LLJ will aid in transporting moisture northwards into our region. While the sfc warm front remains to our south, strong mid-level warm advection/isentropic lift/FGEN and the right entrance region of an upper jet streak to our north will provide plenty of forcing for ascent, so we are expecting widespread rain and showers late Saturday night and Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall across southern areas where the best mid-level forcing will be. Total rainfall amounts generally look to be 0.25 to 0.75" north of I-90, with 0.75 to 1.5" south, except near I-84 where some higher amounts up to around 2" will be possible. Given that 1-hr FFG values are generally >2", rain will be stratiform in nature, and little to no instability, we collaborated with neighboring WFOs and WPC to have the slight risk ERO trimmed back. However, even the northern extent of the marginal risk ERO still seems too bullish. While some nuisance ponding of water in the typical low-lying and poor drainage areas is possible, the bottom line is that the probability of any flash flooding in the ALY CWA is very, very low at this time. Due to widespread rain/wetbulbing, highs Sunday may not make it out of the 50s for many areas. Showers should come to an end Sunday night as a strengthening sfc high builds into southeastern Canada beneath confluent upper flow. This will help push the frontal boundary back south, so Monday looks relatively dry at this time. For Tuesday through the middle of next week, there is some uncertainty if the sfc high will continue to suppress this boundary to our south or if the sfc high will retreat enough that the boundary is able to lift north and bring some renewed shower chances to our southern areas. Given the strength of the sfc high, we are leaning towards the drier solution. With our area expected to be on the cool side of the frontal boundary, temps should remain below normal with highs in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (elsewhere) and lows in the upper 30s to 40s each day/night. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z Saturday...IFR to LIFR cigs and/or vsbys currently at GFL/POU/PSF due to abundant low-level moisture. ALB has had some brief IFR vsbys, but remained largely MVFR over the last couple of hours. Fog/mist/low stratus and IFR or lower conditions expected to persist through around 12z for POU/PSF/GFL, with periods of MVFR remaining possible at ALB. NW winds pick up behind a cold front this morning around 12z which, along with drier low-level air working into the region, should lead to quick improvement back to MVFR cigs/VFR vsbys and eventually VFR cigs as well be mid to late morning. From then onwards, just FEW to SCT clouds 4000-6000 ft expected through the rest of the day and into tonight with prevailing VFR conditions. High clouds also begin to increase after sunset. Winds remain light and variable through the rest of the night, increasing to 5-10 kt from the N/NW after 12z and closer to 10 kt by late morning through around sunset with gusts to around 20 kt. Gusts subside after sunset, but light northerly winds continue from around 00z through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35/33 AVIATION...35/07