Centennial Park Snow Report

625 FXUS61 KBUF 060652 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 252 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted NBM PoPs lower today, otherwise no major changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week, and into Saturday. Any thunderstorms that do form my be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. 2) Brief reprieve from the showers and thunderstorms Sunday, then unsettle weather returns Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. Any thunderstorms that do form my be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. A few showers will continue to work through the region overnight but most areas will see largely dry weather through the early morning hours. There will also be the potential for some fog, mainly across the S. Tier and in the river valleys. After sunrise...any fog that is around will quickly dissipate with another warm and humid day (dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to around 70F). Highs again will climb firmly into the 80s, with even some locations approaching 90F. Heat index values will again range from the upper 80s to low 90s in the warmest locations. Showers and thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly sparse across far western New York this afternoon. Even guidance suggests that PW values will fall off into the 1.2" to 1.4" range as drier air works into the mid-levels. The further east you go it will be a bit of a different story, largely from the Genesee Valley east across the Finger Lakes region and northeast into the North Country inland away from Lake Ontario. This is where deeper moisture (PW values +1.7) will be found, MLCAPE +2K, and somewhat better support aloft this afternoon and evening. Also...0-6km shear values of 25-35 knots may support a few storms to become strong enough to produce strong gusty winds. However...the main threat will `likely` be localized heavy rainfall. WPC continues to advertise all of the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall given the overall high PW values. The mid-level trough and cold front slowly inch east towards the region Friday, with a better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Moisture will again tick up with PW values of +1.7" across the region and MLCAPE values north of +2K inland from the lakes. Guidance suggest we might even see a convectively augmented shortwave move through the region just before or around peak heating. We will need to keep an eye on this feature as it may aid in the severe wx potential Friday. Friday night and Saturday...we will see addtional chances for showers and thunderstorms as cold front nears and then eventually crosses the region. Key Message 2...Brief reprieve from the showers and thunderstorms Sunday, then unsettle weather returns Monday and Tuesday. It looks like we will see drier, cooler, and less humid conditions Sunday behind the passage of the cold front. That said...it doesn`t last long as chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday. We will also see a warming trend with humidity returning which looks like it will be with us through atleast Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers have weaken and all but dissipated across the area. Light winds will `likely` support the development of valley fog across the S. Tier. The fog may expand across the KJHW airfield at times and then dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light winds will prevail this morning until lake breeze boundary conditions set up mid-day to early afternoon. A passing upper level shortwave will support showers and thunderstorms to develop along the lake breeze boundaries this afternoon, where storms will strengthen as the boundary moves east. While, VFR conditions will prevail, localized MVFR to LIFR conditions along with brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots will be possible with any storms that develop. Outlook... Thursday Night through Saturday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are expected, especially each afternoon through early evening. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chances of showers and Thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Light winds will support minimal wave action across the Lower Great Lakes the rest of the week. An approaching trough and then subsequent cold frontal passage may support modest chop on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Saturday through Sunday. There will also be chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week, especially Friday through Saturday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR/EAJ MARINE...AR