Uplands Ski Centre Snow Report

030 FXUS61 KBUF 160752 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 352 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today into tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday. 2.) Dry weather likely Monday night and Tuesday. 3.) Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast for the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today into tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday. A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to exit E`ward this morning. In the wake of the ridge, cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs impact Western and Central NY the rest of today through Monday. At the surface, a primary low should wobble ENE`ward across northern ON, James Bay, and northern QC today through early Monday evening. Accordingly, a warm front should drift NE`ward across our CWA this afternoon through evening and usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. A cold front should then sweep E`ward through our region tonight through about midday Monday. Behind the cold front, a lake-aggregate trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and vicinity, including our CWA, as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. Fair weather is now expected to persist through daybreak in our CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall are expected late this morning through tonight as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface warm and cold fronts, and as downshear gust fronts interact favorably with low-level vertical wind shear amidst primarily moderate deep-layer bulk shear. Cannot rule-out a severe storm or two capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts this afternoon and early evening, when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer amidst peeks of sunshine should yield appreciable boundary layer CAPE and DCAPE near 500-700 J/kg per latest trends in higher-res model soundings. Behind the cold front, isolated rain showers should occur tonight into Monday since subtle shortwave troughs and attendant surface trough axes will traverse Western and Central NY generally from west to east. Low-level convergence and moist ascent along the surface trough axes should release at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. A few thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and early evening, when the same lifting mechanisms may release weak boundary layer CAPE stemming from daytime warming. Showers and thunderstorms on Monday should end by sunset, following the onset of boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. High temperatures should reach the mid 70`s to mid 80`s this afternoon. The warmest highs are expected along the lake plains and the middle and northern portions of the Genesee Valley. Lows should reach mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak Monday. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70`s to lower 80`s on Monday, behind the weak cold front. Key Message 2...Dry weather likely Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft should build from the western Great Lakes and vicinity Monday night through Tuesday. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge is expected to promote dry weather. Considerable clearing and weak or calm surface winds accompanying the ridge should contribute to lows reaching the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Tuesday. Steam fog should form in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Patchy radiation fog should also form, especially inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst lingering low-level moisture from the expected rainfall. Fog will dissipate via the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer shortly after daybreak. Highs are forecast to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s late Tuesday afternoon. Key Message 3...Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast for the midweek period. The above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward Tuesday night and allows a warm front to sweep N`ward through Western and Central NY. Simultaneously, cyclonic W`erly flow aloft becomes established over our area and embedded shortwave disturbances traverse Western and Central NY. The cyclonic W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should continue to affect our area Wednesday through Wednesday night, and a cold front should sweep E`ward through Western and Central NY. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after midnight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, included elevated CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of shortwave trough axes; low-level convergence and moist ascent along the surface warm front, surface cold front, and surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 50`s to mid 60`s Tuesday night and be followed by daytime highs in the 70`s on Wednesday. Overnight lows should reach the upper 40`s to near 60F around daybreak Thursday as a cooler air mass overspreads our region behind the cold front. Latest trends in NWP model guidance suggest the cooler air mass behind the cold front will be too dry to support a period of lake-effect rain. Fair weather is expected region-wide by this Thursday as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the western Great Lakes and vicinity, and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. Highs should reach the 70`s in most of our CWA as a cooler air mass lingers. However, highs may reach only the upper 60`s along the higher hilltops of the Western Southern Tier and higher points of the Tug Hill Plateau. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will slide east into New England tonight, before sliding off the New England coast Sunday morning. This will maintain widespread VFR conditions through at least daybreak Sunday. A warm front will then slowly approach western NY Sunday morning, which will bring low VFR/MVFR conditions into the western Southern Tier (KJHW) during the morning hours, while VFR flight conditions persist across the remainder of western and north-central NY through at midday or so. A surface wave will develop along the warm front, as it ever so slowly progresses eastward into western NY Sunday afternoon. This will bring deteriorating flight conditions through the second half of Sunday, with low VFR to MVFR developing from south to north across the remainder of the area south Lake Ontario through the afternoon hours. Scattered showers and storms will also develop Sunday with localized MVFR/IFR with any stronger storm, especially during the afternoon. Warm front moves through the North Country early Sunday evening with MVFR conditions expected to finally develop there (KART), while IFR starts to impact the higher terrain areas (KJHW). Brief flight reductions in showers and storms will also continue across the area into Sunday evening in advance of an approaching cold front. Outlook... Sunday Night...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected. Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance for isolated rain showers. Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Overnight/early morning river valley fog possible supporting localized MVFR to LIFR conditions across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Wednesday...MVFR conditions possible with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected through this Thursday. A warm front should drift NE`ward across eastern Lake Erie late this morning through early afternoon and across Lake Ontario this evening. The warm front passage will cause SE`erly winds to veer to SW`erly. A cold front then sweeps eastward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight and causes SW`erly winds to veer to NW`erly. Behind the cold front, a trough lingers over the lakes on Monday before a high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity Monday night. Winds are expected to vary between W`erly and N`erly. Note: periodic showers and thunderstorms should impact Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon through Monday. Showers and especially storms may produce localized/brief strong winds and larger waves. On Tuesday, the ridge axis should move E`ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and cause winds to back to SW`erly. A cold front should sweep SE`ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Wednesday through Wednesday night and cause SW`erly winds to veer to NW`erly to N`erly. Behind the cold front, a ridge should build from the western Great Lakes through Thursday and be accompanied by mainly W`erly to N`erly winds. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...JM MARINE...Jaszka