North York Ski Centre (Earl Bales) Snow Report

797 FXUS61 KBUF 150802 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Mainly dry weather continues through tonight. 2.) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Sunday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this Monday. 3.) Dry weather is expected this Monday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Mainly dry weather continues through tonight. NW`erly flow aloft and stabilizing subsidence affect our region today as a surface high pressure ridge affects the eastern Great Lakes and vicinity, while the ridge aloft builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. As a result, dry weather is expected in all of Western and Central NY. Clear to partly cloudy sky and weak or calm surface winds will contribute to lows reaching the mid 40`s to near 60F in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s elsewhere in our CWA around daybreak this morning. The coolest lows are expected in Lewis County, especially the Black River Valley, where efficient radiational cooling should be complemented by cool air drainage from adjacent higher terrain. Sufficient nocturnal cooling and low-level moisture will result in patchy radiation fog and steam fog in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region through shortly after daybreak. High temperatures late this afternoon are expected to reach the 70`s in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and the mid 70`s to mid 80`s elsewhere. The ridge at the surface and aloft begins to exit E`ward tonight as a shortwave trough approaches from the central Great Lakes and a surface warm front approaches from the OH Valley and vicinity. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis and along the upper-reaches of the warm front should release weak, yet sufficient elevated CAPE to allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to impact the Western Southern Tier during the predawn hours of Sunday morning. Fair weather is expected to persist elsewhere in our CWA. Lows should reach the mid 40`s to lower 60`s in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and mainly the lower to mid 60`s elsewhere. Readings should begin to moderate toward daybreak, especially in Western NY and the Finger Lakes, as low-level WAA strengthens ahead of the warm front. Key Message 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Sunday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this Monday. Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs will impact Western and Central NY on Sunday through Monday. At the surface, a low should wobble SE`ward from the northern Great Lakes to near southern New England and Long Island. This low track should allow the surface warm front to drift NE`ward through our CWA Sunday morning through evening, which will usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf, and be followed by the E`ward passage of a surface cold front Sunday evening through Monday morning. Behind the cold front, a surface ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface warm and cold fronts as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE, amidst moderate to perhaps strong deep-layer bulk shear, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface warm and cold fronts, and as downshear gust fronts interact favorably with low-level vertical wind shear. Severe storms still appear possible Sunday afternoon into the evening, but their occurrence will be contingent on multiple factors, including the degree of diurnal destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer. Sufficient diurnal destabilization for severe storm occurrence remains questionable given the expectation of abundant cloud cover on Sunday. Behind the cold front, isolated rain showers should occur Sunday night into Monday since subtle shortwave troughs and attendant surface trough axes will traverse Western and Central NY generally from west to east. Low-level convergence and moist ascent along the surface trough axes should release at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. A few thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, before sunset, when the same lifting mechanisms may release weak boundary layer CAPE stemming from daytime warming. Compared to 24-hours ago, the potential for lake-effect rain showers over and generally southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight Sunday night into Monday appears to be marginal since low-level CAA may be slightly weaker than projected by previous cycles of NWP models. We will continue to monitor the potential for lake-effect rain. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s Sunday afternoon. Lows should reach mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak Monday. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70`s to lower 80`s on Monday, behind the weak cold front. Key Message 3...Dry weather is expected this Monday night through Tuesday. The above-mentioned high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft should build from the western Great Lakes and vicinity Monday night through Tuesday. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge is expected to promote dry weather. Considerable clearing and weak or calm surface winds accompanying the ridge should contribute to lows reaching the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Tuesday. Steam fog should form in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning and then dissipate via the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer shortly after daybreak. Highs are forecast to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s late Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some patchy fog will develop overnight through early Saturday morning with local IFR, mainly across the valleys of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through early Saturday morning with a few areas of mid/high clouds crossing the region. The fog will burn off by mid morning, with VFR prevailing areawide through the rest of Saturday with a few diurnal cumulus and areas of cirrus. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...Mainly VFR Sunday morning with a chance of showers, then areas of MVFR/local IFR with showers and scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few spotty showers. Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Late night/early morning river valley fog with local IFR across the Southern Tier. Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm late. && .MARINE... Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected through the middle of the upcoming week. A high pressure ridge over eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today begins to exit E`ward tonight. Primarily NE`erly to E`erly winds today veer to SE`erly tonight. On Sunday through Monday, a low should wobble SE`ward from near the northern Great Lakes to near southern New England. This low track should allow a warm front to drift NE`ward across eastern Lake Erie on Sunday and across Lake Ontario Sunday evening. The warm front passage will cause SE`erly winds to veer to SW`erly. A cold front then sweeps eastward across eastern Lake Erie Sunday evening and across Lake Ontario Sunday evening through Sunday night and causes SW`erly winds to veer to NW`erly. Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over the lakes on Monday before a high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity Monday night. Winds are expected to vary between W`erly and N`erly. Note: periodic showers and thunderstorms should impact Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight tonight and especially on Sunday through Monday. Showers and especially storms may produce localized/brief strong winds and larger waves. On Tuesday, the ridge axis should move E`ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and cause winds to back to SW`erly. S`erly to SW`erly winds are then expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as the ridge exits slowly E`ward and a cold front approaches from the northwest. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Jaszka