North York Ski Centre (Earl Bales) snow report

665 FXUS61 KBUF 050605 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 205 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog through the early morning hours. 2) Unsettled weather will continue today through Tuesday, with the most persistent rain across the southern portion of the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of fog through the early morning hours. A weak east-west oriented front will continue to sag slowly south into northern PA this morning. Weak northeast upslope flow in its wake along with residual low level moisture will promote areas of low stratus and fog through daybreak. The most prevalent fog and lowest visibilities will likely be in areas which received rainfall yesterday. The fog will quickly dissipate an hour or two after sunrise this morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather will continue today through Tuesday, with the most persistent rain across the southern portion of the area. An east-west frontal zone will stall just south of the area today and linger through Tuesday, supporting a continuation of unsettled weather especially across the southern portion of the area. Today, deep moisture will remain in place across the Southern Tier in close proximity to the stalled frontal zone over northern PA. A series of small scale convectively modulated shortwaves will move atop the frontal zone and support periods of enhanced ascent. Scattered showers this morning will increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as modest diurnal instability develops, with a few scattered thunderstorms developing as well. A few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, high pressure building across Ontario and Quebec will feed drier mid level air southward to the Canadian border, and result in a sharp northern edge to rain chances. Expect mainly dry weather to prevail today along and north of the NYS Thruway. Tonight, most of the thunder will end early this evening, and showers will diminish in coverage to scattered showers across the Southern Tier. Mainly dry weather will continue along and north of the NYS Thruway through the first half of the night. Overnight, a gradually deepening mid level trough upstream across the central Great Lakes combined with weak low pressure over Ohio will allow deeper moisture to begin to advect northward, with scattered showers moving north towards the south shore of Lake Ontario by daybreak Monday. Monday through Monday night, the weak mid level trough upstream across the central Great Lakes will move slowly east towards the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weak, diffuse low will drift from the Ohio Valley east towards the Mid Atlantic. Large scale ascent ahead of the mid level shortwave will combine with moisture convergence and weak frontogenesis north of the surface low to support occasional showers Monday through Monday night. The most persistent rain and highest QPF will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, although a few showers will occasionally reach the south shore of Lake Ontario as well. A few embedded thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon and evening mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes with locally heavy rainfall possible. The lowest rain chances through the period will be across the North Country farther removed from forcing and moisture. Tuesday through Tuesday night the mid level trough will gradually drift southeast of the area, with the surface low moving off the southern New England coast. Enough moisture may linger Tuesday to support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Most of this will end Tuesday night as the system continues to move away from the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Areas of fog and low stratus will continue to expand through the pre- dawn hours with residual low level moisture and weak northeast upslope flow behind a weak cold front drifting south of the area. IFR will be fairly widespread through 10-12Z. Some of the fog and low stratus may approach airfield minimums at times, especially in areas which received rain yesterday afternoon. The fog and low stratus will quickly dissipate after sunrise, with a return to VFR in most areas by mid morning. A frontal boundary stalled across northern PA along with associated deep moisture and a series of mid level shortwaves will continue to support occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms across the Southern Tier today. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue much of the day across the Southern Tier, with reduced VSBY in areas of heavier showers and thunderstorms. There will be a sharp northern cutoff to the rain, with mainly dry conditions and VFR along and north of the NYS Thruway. Tonight, showers will continue across the Southern Tier this evening with diminishing coverage and intensity. Overnight, a mid level trough approaching from the west will allow scattered showers to expand northward towards the south shore of Lake Ontario. VFR will prevail for most of the area. The one exception will be across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, where low stratus and associated MVFR/IFR CIGS will expand overnight. Outlook... Monday...Occasional showers, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes with areas of MVFR/IFR. Less rain farther north, with VFR/MVFR CIGS. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the lower Great Lakes through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build from Hudson Bay today to Quebec Monday, gradually tightening the pressure gradient. Northeast winds will increase somewhat today through tonight with a light chop developing on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Northeast winds will increase further on Monday, with winds and waves approaching Small Craft Advisory criteria on the west half of Lake Ontario. Light to moderate chop will continue in east to northeast winds Tuesday before a return to light winds by Wednesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock