Christie Mountain Ski Area snow report

345 FXUS63 KLSX 150751 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very little changes have been to the temperature forecast, with near average temperatures and heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees expected through the weekend, and potentially early next week. - Scattered afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon today through Friday, with the best chances across the Ozarks today and tomorrow, and Illinois Friday. Bursts of heavy rain and lightning are the most likely hazards with these storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 While dry conditions are in place early this morning, attention will soon turn to the slow approach of rich moisture and a mid-level vorticity maximum from the south over the next few days, as this will bring increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery indicates that this feature is currently located across central Mississippi and very slowly drifting to the northwest, with a plume of moisture and other smaller impulses ahead of it in southern Missouri. As the day progresses, both of these features will nudge further north, and we expect to see a round of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms developing in the afternoon in the Ozarks and far southwest Illinois as heating erodes a weakening capping inversion. With PWAT values approaching 1.8 to 2.0 inches in these areas by that time, the strongest cores may produce rain rates on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour, which may cause localized flooding issues in areas with saturated soils from recent rain. Meanwhile, these storms will be developing within a regime of relatively weak wind shear, but there is just enough easterly mid level flow (25-30 kt) that cells will likely have at least some modest forward motion. This also means that storms will be moving from east to west, which is somewhat unusual for our area. We also don`t expect severe storms, but can`t rule out some wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range here and there. Convective activity should wane a bit after sunset as we lose afternoon heating, although a smattering of showers may persist through the night. During the day though, the aforementioned vort max is expected to continue moving northward and directly overhead, along with the core of very rich moisture. As such, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected, likely with greater areal coverage than today. Still, given the slow northward progression of the upper low, the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to occur across the Ozarks. Meanwhile, very similar threats will exist with tomorrow`s storms, including bursts of heavy rain, lightning, and occasional modest downburst winds. Again, the threat of flooding appears low overall, but storm motions may be slightly slower Thursday, and there are a few locations in the Ozarks that are particularly sensitive to heavy rain rates at this time and may experience localized minor flooding impacts. Once again, the focus of this activity is expected to be in the afternoon, but a few of the more persistent thunderstorms may lingering the evening and overnight. Otherwise, while very humid conditions are expected in the Ozarks and southwest Illinois today due to dewpoints in the low to mid 70s (and locally higher), and this humidity is likely to spread into additional areas Thursday. Fortunately, temperatures are only expected to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s, roughly average for this time of year, which should keep heat index values in check. Still, you can expect to see heat index values approaching 100 degrees in our warmest areas this afternoon. This is something that will need to be monitored today, because if we do reach 100 degree heat index values today, we may be in danger of reaching the 4-day Heat Advisory threshold of 100+ degree heat index values as temperatures are likely to rise slightly through the weekend. Given that we are now in mid-July and have already see widespread heat, we will refrain from issuing any headlines for now, and see how today`s temperatures verify first. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 By Friday, the subtle impulse partially responsible for Thursday`s shower activity is expected to slowly pivot to the northeast, carrying the focus of renewed showers and thunderstorms with it. While the exact motion of such a small feature is somewhat uncertain at this time range, the greatest rain chances are expected to shift into Illinois, although we may see some activity in far eastern Missouri near the Mississippi River as well. At the same time, shower coverage is likely to wane across the Ozarks and central Missouri due to a combination of increasing subsidence and drier westerly flow. In any case, a similar round of scattered afternoon pulse-type showers featuring brief heavy rain rates, lightning, and occasional gusty winds appears most likely. Over the weekend and into early next week, ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the upper flow pattern will gradually amplify, with a buildup of the longwave ride across the intermountain west, and the development of a longwave trough across the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS. While this process will begin Saturday and Sunday with a digging weak shortwave trough, this feature may be too far removed from our area for its associated backdoor cold front to impact our area much, although there are still some members that do bring such a feature into our northern areas late Saturday, along with another round of showers and thunderstorms. However, this is still very much in the minority of solutions, and we have little confidence that we will see much in the way of precipitation over the weekend. Instead, given the higher probability that cold fronts will wash out before they arrive over the weekend, confidence is increasing that temperatures will, at a minimum, remain near seasonal averages, and may even continue to rise by a degree or two each day. We should see a slight decrease in dewpoints after Friday in western areas, but without a notable cold front to push near-surface moisture out of the area, high humidity is also expected to persist through the weekend, with heat index values nudging slightly upwards into the 100 to 105 degree territory. Between Monday and Tuesday though, there is an increasing signal in long-range ensemble guidance that a deeper trough will dig into the Great Lakes, sending a more noteworthy cold front south and through the area. Not only may this renew chances for showers and thunderstorms, but this would also likely put and end to any notable heat concerns by mid-week. There is still a high degree of ensemble variance, though, particularly on the timing of the initial cold front on Monday. A slower solution would likely yield another warm day Monday (potentially the warmest of the next 7 days), and add another day to a string of 100 to 105 degree heat index values, possibly even 5 days in a row in some places. Again, temperatures and heat index values will be evaluated today and tomorrow to determine if any duration-driven headlines are needed. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1023 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected at local TAF sites during the 06Z TAF cycle, with a few brief, low-probability exceptions. Some shallow fog will once again be possible overnight and early tomorrow morning at local river valley sites, including SUS/CPS/JEF. While confidence is low regarding whether the terminals will be directly impacted, visibility reductions will be possible. Otherwise, there is a low (20% or less) chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening at I-70 corridor terminals, but this activity is most likely to remain south of there during this period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday afternoon, but this will not be within the TAF forecast window for at least another 12 hours. .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRC LONG TERM...BRC AVIATION...BRC