Christmas Mountain Village Snow Report

792 FXUS63 KILX 140734 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-term conditions remain dry and pleasant today, with increasing southeasterly winds gusting 15-25 mph this afternoon. - Active weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front stalls across central Illinois, bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week and weekend. - Severe weather is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall (1-2+ inches, particularly northwest of a Havana to Bloomington line). - A strong north-to-south temperature contrast will exist across the stalled boundary mid-to-late week, with highs ranging from the lower 80s north to 90s south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today and Tonight... Early this morning, high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is delivering a crisp, fall-like morning across central Illinois, with temperatures predominantly in the 50s under light easterly winds. To the west, a closed upper-level low is lifting across the Canadian Rockies with surface cyclogenesis ongoing over the northern Great Plains. An associated warm front is advancing northward through the Great Plains, supporting convective activity focused across the mid and upper Missouri River Valley. This convection will largely remain west of the local area today as it lifts into the Upper Midwest. However, there is a minor (10-15%) chance for a few lingering showers or an isolated thunderstorm to clip far northwestern counties north of the Illinois River late morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail today. Southeasterly winds will strengthen and become breezy as the surface pressure gradient tightens from the west, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph expected this afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms, with highs around 80 along the I-74 corridor and in the low-to-mid 80s across the remainder of central Illinois. Tuesday and Wednesday... The northern Plains surface low will continue to deepen while lifting across the Canadian Prairies toward Hudson Bay Tuesday. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Upper Midwest, with its southern extension reaching central Illinois Tuesday afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this boundary, persisting into Wednesday as the frontal zone becomes oriented parallel to mid/upper-level flow and stalls directly across central Illinois. Severe Weather Potential: The severe threat warrants close monitoring. Deep layer shear of 30-40 kt, enhanced by an upper-level jet streak over the Upper Midwest, will overlap the frontal boundary. GFS guidance suggests pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing Tuesday, increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg on Wednesday. This thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support organized convection capable of isolated severe wind gusts. Colorado State University (CSU) machine learning probabilities indicate a 15-30% severe risk Tuesday and 5-15% Wednesday across central Illinois. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for most of central Illinois Tuesday and a risk area may be introduced Wednesday once forecast details come into better focus. Heavy Rainfall Threat: In addition to severe potential, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be concerns as multiple convective rounds train along the lingering frontal boundary. NBM 48-hour mean QPF ending Wednesday night indicates 1.00+ inch amounts north of a Havana to Bloomington line, with 2.00+ inch QPF contour edging into far northwestern sections just north of Galesburg. Temperature Disparity: A sharp thermal gradient will develop across the frontal zone Tuesday and Wednesday. North of the boundary, cloud cover and precipitation will cap highs in the lower-to-mid 80s. South of the boundary, filtered sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the low-to-mid 90s with elevated humidity as dew points climb back into the lower 70s. Triple digit heat indices will be the result, especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. End of the Week and Weekend... Unsettled weather will persist into Thursday and Friday as the baroclinic zone remains draped across northern and central Illinois. Global models (specifically ECMWF and GFS) have begun to converge on a solution keeping the boundary anchored across portions of central and northern Illinois. Consequently, daily chances for convection will continue alongside lingering 90-degree heat across southern portions of the forecast area. Little pattern change is anticipated heading into the weekend, maintaining periodic shower/thunderstorm chances and a strong north-to-south temperature contrast across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A SCT to BKN mid- level cloud deck over northern Missouri and much of Iowa is spreading east late tonight and will overspread the area through morning. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slide into northern Ohio by midday, allowing winds to veer from east-northeast to southeast. The pressure gradient will become pinched between the departing high and developing low to the west, resulting in occasional winds gusts of 20-25 kts beginning late Monday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Deubelbeiss DISCUSSION...Deubelbeiss AVIATION...NMA