Crystal Mountain Snow Report

429 FXUS63 KAPX 080621 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 221 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers this morning, then mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the 80s - Times of showers and storms continue through much of next week with temperatures hoovering slightly above normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Current radar depicts a line of storms which crossed over the St. Marys River and into southern Ontario CAN this morning. This line has outrun the frontal boundary behind it, which is reaching the eastern part of Lk Superior early this morning (just after midnight). This trailing weak boundary is reaching down into Lk MI, and will continue to veer winds to the west/northwest this morning. It will take until this afternoon for drier air to filter over northern MI, which will result in lingering elevated instability and thus chances for isolated showers and storms. The environment is not capable of stronger storms, with the largest threat being brief heavy rain and thunder. NE lower will be where these chances hang on until midday, with NW Lower and easter upper seeing most chances exit by then. Surface high pressure will sink southward, down the Ohio River Valley. Surface ridging will allow temperatures to warm into the high 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies (especailly by the late afternoon hours). Starting tonight, southerly winds over the central plains will advect moisture and warmer air northward. This will delineate a warm frontal boundary draped somewhere over IA/MN/WI. With broad quasi- zonal flow aloft, lee side lows over the rockies will get a chance to form each afternoon (Sunday and Monday). Models are currently having a hard time developing and progressing these surface lows, which points to a scenario where the Gulf moisture tap is pointed towards MI (up the Ohio River Valley) for a couple of days. The warm frontal boundary/stationary boundary will reside somewhere over MN/IA/WI/MI (draped west to east) for the majority of the weekend and even into next week. North of this, Sunday the beginnings of a cool CAN front will push into the U.P. and provide another chance for showers and storms beginning early Sunday. The cool front boundary and the stagnant warm frontal boundary will meet (likely over WI/MI) Sunday and generate scattered showers and storms over much of the state. Intial look at afternoon RAP soundings show deep moisture/skinny CAPE profiles, with steep lower level lapse rates. Sfc-3km shear of around 25 to 30kts and up to 1000J/kg of SBCAPE will keep the chance of severe threats low.. with a likely fate of pulse type convection for most storms during the afternoon. Going into the evening and early night time hours, the warm front could surge northward and reach M-72. This would bring a much more ideal environment for storm development and strengthening over areas just along and to the south of that boundary. It is still too early to know if this boundary will reach the northern part of the state, and history points to most of the convection forming earlier over southern WI/MI. This would choke off moisture to the northern part of the L.P., keeping the boundary south. Nonetheless, confidence does exist for some scattered showers and storms Sunday over much of northern MI. Stronger storms will be capable of at least lightning and heavy rain. Training of storms producing heavy rain will lead to flooding over low lying areas (steering winds likely parallel to boundary). Depending on what happens Sunday, another round of showers and storms will be possible Monday as the warm front continues to linger over MN/WI/IL/MI. Midweek, a couple of weak waves from CAN will attempt to push cooler CAN air over Lk Superior and into MI. This could turn winds to the north/northwest and breifly move the moisture to the southern part of the state.. Keeping northern MI dry for the end of the work week. Signals are starting to show a larger upper trough seeping over the eastern Great Lakes next weekend, which could cooler temperatures down to near or just below normal. Lots of potential for that to change. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Shower and storm chances leave much to be desired through tonight. Sites best poised to even see shower activity will be CIU, followed by a decreasingly likely chance with southward progression along Lake Michigan (APN likely dry). Frontal passage may produce some low cloud right around daybreak (perhaps dipping into MVFR, particularly CIU and PLN)... but CIGs to rise late morning into the afternoon, largely clearing out by evening. Winds turn NW by daybreak, perhaps gusting to 15kts+ at times late morning through the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELD AVIATION...HAD