Missaukee Mountain snow report

918 FXUS63 KIWX 170707 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 307 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry, warm, and humid today. - Strong to severe storms possible on Monday and Tuesday with a Slight Risk on both days. Locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts are possible, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. - Cooler with much more seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Satellite and radar imagery shows strong to severe thunderstorms persisting across parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois early this morning, with high level clouds on the eastern fringes of this complex drifting into our forecast area. A warm, humid, and mainly dry day is ahead. As a stalled boundary surges northward into Lower Michigan, a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. However, as confidence increases that much of the activity will bypass us to the north and northeast, I have decreased PoPs to be 14% or less throughout the day. As an area of low pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest, a tightening pressure gradient will develop, allowing for south winds to gust as high as 25 mph this afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will allow for continued strong WAA into the forecast area, with highs climbing into the mid 80s today. Moisture also continued to get pulled northward today, with dewpoints well into the mid 60s today. An active weather pattern develops Monday and Tuesday with several oppourtunities for severe weather. An upper level trough digs across the Four Corners region on Monday, sending even stronger surges of moisture and warmth into the Upper Great Lakes region as a connection to the Gulf deepens. Our forecast area will be well into the warm sector on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Activity to our west Sunday night into Monday morning will have to be closesly monitored, as this will be the impetus for severe weather in our forecast area Monday afternoon and evening. A prefrontal trough and several 500mb shortwaves will provide a source of lift. Models diverge on exactly where and how much convection will hold together, but if it does, it will be moving into a incredibly unstable environment. SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will be present alongside steepening low level lapse rates. Shear may be the limiting factor Monday as forecast soundings depict a unidirectional vertical wind profile. SPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across our northwest half of the forecast area, with the risk decreasing to Marginal (level 1 of 5) further southeast. A linear storm mode is most likely with damaging winds as the main threat. With PWATs around 1.5", even if storms are not severe, they will likely be heavy rain producers with rain rates in excess of 1"/hr. Our forecast area will be in a favorable region for severe weather again on Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of an incoming cold front. Forecast soundings depict a very similar environment to Monday, with SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg during peak heating hours. Highs will once again be in the mid to upper 80s with the Gulf connection fueling dewpoints well into the 60s. With the cold front as the source of lift, forecast soundings depict slightly better helicity up to 200 m2/s2. At this point, all hazards are possible, but with a mostly unidirectional wind profile again, damaging winds appear the most likely threat. Post frontal passage, drier and much more seasonable conditions arrive midweek. High pressure builds in on Wednesday and Thursday across the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the 60s; while seasonable, it will feel much cooler than the previous stretch of warm and humid days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Have maintained dry conditions and VFR ceilings for the 06Z TAFs as confidence increases that Sunday will remain dry. Scattered high clouds are moving through on the eastern fringes of ongoing convection across Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. This convection should bypass the area to northeast in the morning as it lifts northward along a stalled boundary. Sunday will be dry and breezy. WAA will cap winds somewhat but southerly winds are still expected to gust as high as 18-22 kts during peak diurnal heating. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Johnson