Missaukee Mountain snow report

289 FXUS63 KIWX 030804 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 404 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Extreme Heat Warning continues through this evening across northwest Ohio, along with portions of northern Indiana mainly east of I-69 and south of US 24. A Heat Advisory is is effect elsewhere. Heat indices will range from the upper 90s to around 105 (highest in the warning area). - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon into this evening, with the greatest potential of severe storms from 3pm EDT to 11pm EDT. Damaging wind gusts, lightning, and locally heavy rain are the main threats, but isolated large hail cannot be ruled out. - Hot and humid for the 4th of July with up to 70% chances for showers and storms. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Isolated storms are most likely from 2pm EDT to 11pm EDT. with isolated damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and lightning as the main threats. An isolated severe storm may exist once again Sunday afternoon, but confidence is lower. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Outflow dominated convective complex is progressing across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan early this morning. A few outflow boundaries have passed across northwest portions of the forecast area early this morning. This outflow is helping to sustain convection early this morning as it approaches the South Bend area, along with a pocket of enhanced 30-40 knots of effective shear via some convective enhancement of the short wave. This convective complex does still have a 2500 J/kg MLCAPE axis to work with across far northern IN/southern Lower MI this morning, although some weak downstream MLCIN will continue to develop through the remainder of the overnight. Forcing with the outflow will likely be enough to overcome this weak CIN however, which could very well allow for eastward maintenance of the convection through most of far northern Indiana and souther Lower Michigan. These storms are not expected to be severe this morning with a possibility of some isolated gusts to 40 to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall. 0-3km shear vectors are somewhat impressive (southwest around 30 knots) which could pose some concern for brief mesovort, but increasing elevated/outflow dominant nature of this complex should lessen severe potential this morning. The AM storms will leave behind an outflow boundary that could serve as a focus for isolated-scattered storm development after 18Z this afternoon, although bulk of CAM guidance does still maintain later timing toward 20Z and beyond as another convectively enhanced short wave emerges from IA/Central Plains. Impressive instability profiles (MLCAPES on order of 2500-3000 J/kg) will be in place this afternoon and approach of this short wave toward evening could also enhance convection along remnant outflows. Shear profiles will be less favorable severe weather ingredient today, with shear profiles gradually waning this morning with departure of AM vort max. One thing that may need to be watched today is the potential for a favorable wet microburst environment given high CAPEs and steep 0- 3km lapse rates. Some relatively drier mid level theta-e air may also be working along northwest periphery of the suppressed mid level ridge that could enhanced sfc to mid level theta-e differentials for some localized microbursts, particularly if convection can develop during the afternoon to early evening hours. A Slight Risk of severe storms (level 2 of 5) has been maintained today with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain still appearing as the main threats. Given low shear environment, outflows from late afternoon/early evening convection may sustain some renewed convective development through the overnight hours given slow moving nature to upstream short wave. Some indications for Saturday that some very subtle mid level height rises could develop for first part of the day in wake of the short wave/MCV late tonight. This does lead to some low confidence in convective evolution for Saturday. Shear profiles should be marginal, with moderate afternoon instability still likely. A trigger is somewhat murky at this forecast distance, with old outflows possibly playing some role once again. This setup still supports a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Saturday afternoon/early evening with once again an isolated wind threat. Some consideration was given to extending heat headlines into Saturday for far south/southeast areas, but complications from convective potential and derived heat indices from forecast grids yielding peak afternoon heat indices around 100 across these locations argue for maintaining heat headlines as is for now. Predictability in convective details drops off further for Sunday and Monday as a pair of synoptic waves will likely undergo some convective modification once again, but overall pattern and timing of this forcing would support isolated-scattered convection again on Sunday. Instability will likely be more limited on Sunday in comparison to today and Saturday, and with persistence of marginal shear profiles, an isolated severe threat is of lower confidence on Sunday. Scattered PoPs were maintained for Monday although recent guidance trends could result in quicker transition to dry conditions as negative height anomaly begins to shift off to the east. Temps/humidity levels should transition to more seasonable levels for early next week. Additional shower and storm chances still look good later in the week as a series of Pacific waves and slightly stronger northern tier westerlies shifts into the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Convective potential will continue to be the primary aviation weather concern. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms across northeast Illinois into southwest Lower Michigan has kicked an outflow boundary southward that has just passed through KSBN vicinity. Showers and a few storms have attempted to develop along this outflow boundary, but development of some weak MLCIN overnight may tend to limit coverage and result in some diminishment of upstream convection as it pushes east. With continued low confidence in near term, have indicated a PROB30 thunder mention at KSBN with a potential outflow boundary could be a focal point, and the possibility that convective complex across northeast Illinois survives eastward. A more organized round of convection is still expected late this afternoon into this evening as another convectively enhanced short wave from the Plains rounds the flattening upper ridge and interacts with an unstable airmass. Some uncertainties persist regarding where leftover outflow boundaries from this morning`s convection will be located and also timing the convectively enhanced short wave. Could see isolated-scattered storms develop toward 19-20Z along remnant outflow boundary that may begin to slowly retreat northward across far northern Indiana. Better chance of storms still looks to be in the 22Z-03Z timeframe as the short wave approaches. Given the uncertainties mentioned, will limit afternoon/evening convection at terminals to a PROB30 for now. Outside of any heavier showers and storms, VFR conditions should hold through this period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ009- 017-018-022>027-032>034. OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001- 002-004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili