Missaukee Mountain Snow Report

043 FXUS63 KIWX 030717 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 317 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity continue through with peak heat indices around 100 degrees. - 20-30% chance of thunderstorms starting late this afternoon. The chance of storms peaks overnight when damaging wind gusts and hail are possible hazards. Confidence in severe storms occurring is medium. - Remaining unsettled with opportunities for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 An upper-level ridge and stalled out frontal boundary remain the primary items of focus for this forecast period. Hot and humid air prevails once again this afternoon as heat indicies are forecast to be around 100. The heat advisory was expanded to the entire forecast area. An overall absence of convection across WI and MI have limited the anticipated cloud cover, thus, a hotter afternoon than originally forecast. We`ll run into a similar situation for Friday, which, as it stands right now, is heat-advisory free, but may need to be reevaluated based on convective trends. Turning now to those pesky thunderstorm chances; initial 00z CAM runs revealed dreadful initialization with over-convection noted in IA and WI at the time, while struggling to handle convection elsewhere in the Plains. This weakens already battered forecast confidence in this pattern. However, sifting past the over- convection, ensembles and hourly runs appear to be converging on storms developing over southern WI this evening in the vicinity of a strengthening 500-mb jet and stalled front below. Timing is murky, but "after dark" appears to be a reasonable bet locally. The overall severe weather environment is favorable, but nothing truly alarming, with ample MUCAPE, bulk shear near 30 knots and mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. Damaging wind gusts and hail appear to be the most likely outcome from storm clusters that emerge from southern Wisconsin. This activity may persist beyond daybreak Friday depending on the upstream start time. With the upper-level ridge still folding over our area Friday and Saturday, thunderstorm chances persist but details are sparse owing to the anticipated feedback loop day-to-day. Perhaps some relief Sunday and the start of Monday as Canadian high pressure seeping over the eastern Great Lakes works to suppress the upper-level ridge westward for a time. Guidance is split on how the coming week evolves, but the overall upper air pattern to me favors a upper- level ridge becoming centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley as a trough arrives to the Pacific Northwest. This would promote continued heat and storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Pitiful model initialization of upstream convection across the Dakotas, along with suspicious over convection of activity across IA and far northwest IL muddies the forecast confidence. Will carry on with the inherited TAF at this time. Satellite trends over the IL-IA line indicate activity is struggling due to an absence of deep layer shear. The next best upper- level disturbance spills overhead in the 21z to 06z window. Models that have over-convected this morning favor TSRA as early as 21z. Based on current observations, have thrown these out. Instead, am favoring late arrival of any TSRA as we await upper- level support to spark any organized thunderstorms. Will monitor trends and perhaps add -TSRA to KSBN in the vicinity of 06z Friday for the next TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104- 116-203-204-216. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025. MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Brown