Missaukee Mountain Snow Report

811 FXUS63 KIWX 240539 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 139 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradually warmer over the next several days. Hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday and Monday. - Primarily dry this weekend but there are 20-30% chances for rain and storms Sunday evening into Sunday night. - Several rounds of rain and storms possible late Sunday through early Tuesday. Severe weather is possible but low confidence at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Satellite imagery and recent surface observations show high clouds drifting in from the west as high pressure remains overhead. It is not out the question that sprinkles could occur today (mainly this morning and afternoon) as more clouds advect in, but the overall trend continues to be dry and gradually warmer through at least the first half of the weekend as the airmass overhead moderates. Highs will be in the upper 70s area-wide today with low humidity. Winds shift to become southwesterly on Saturday with WAA starting to ramp up. Saturday will be slightly warmer and a bit humid with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints around 60 degrees. Hot and humid by Sunday and Monday with increasing chances for rain and storms. Dewpoints continue to climb Sunday and Monday into the low to mid 70s with west/southwest flow at the surface. Increased evapotranspiration from crops may also aid in locally higher dewpoints. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s both days with continued WAA ahead of a cold front that comes through late Monday/early Tuesday. Our forecast area will be on the fringes of a large upper level ridge over the central CONUS. This is a favorable summertime set up for a potentially active pattern into early next week with northwest flow aloft. Guidance is trending towards our forecast area being in the `ring of fire` with the large upper level ridge centered over the central CONUS and repeated complexes of storms (MCSs) that ride the periphery of the ridge. Considerable uncertainty remains this far out on timing, track, and intensity of storms, so confidence is low. A pattern like this is very difficult to forecast for more than 24 hours out, as it takes knowing when and where an MCS will develop to understand how it may evolve and where it will track. Several rounds of thunderstorms may occur Sunday evening through Monday, but exact details are sparse and subject to change. Sunday is trending mainly dry at this time, with 20-30% chances for storms late in the evening. The better chances arrive Monday afternoon and evening ahead of and along the approaching cold front. I can`t rule out isolated strong to severe storms Sunday evening, but the better chances and more favorable environment for severe weather appears to be Monday. Our entire forecast area is included in the 15% severe risk by SPC on Monday, July 27th. The GFS and ECMWF are in alignment on a favorable synoptic setup with northwest flow aloft and an increasing LLJ on Monday. A series of 500 mb shortwaves will move through Monday, providing sufficient lift for storm development in conjunction with the cold front. Shear and instability remain the key ingredients I have the least confidence in this far out; with how hot and humid it will be, I would not be surprised if instability reaches 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE on Sunday and Monday. Bulk shear appears to be decent too on Monday at around 30 to 40 kts. Uncertainty remains in exact timing, coverage, and intensity of storms. Given the highly conditional setup, confidence remains low overall. Tuesday`s weather is uncertain, as it will depend on what happens late Sunday and Monday. Ensemble guidance favors dry and seasonable conditions with high pressure building once again over the Great Lakes. For now, will stick with dry conditions and highs in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 High pressure overhead continues to keep conditions dry. Satellite imagery and observations show high level clouds moving in. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, but VFR ceilings are expected to prevail. Winds will be light and variable through this afternoon and evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Johnson