Missaukee Mountain Snow Report

128 FXUS63 KIWX 140650 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will slowly dissipate and exit the area this morning. Mainly dry conditions are expected this afternoon and evening but a stray shower or storm can`t be ruled out. - More storms are likely on Saturday and Sunday. Some of these storms could be severe during the afternoon and early evening hours. Isolated heavy rain/flooding is also possible but the overall flood risk is lower than recent days. - Dry conditions return Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Intensifying LLJ and associated theta-e surge yielding widespread convection across central IN as expected this morning with a decent EML nosing into our SW CWA. Surface obs/mesoanalysis show frontal boundary and associated surface instability gradient currently well south of our area and strongest convection remains focused in IND`s CWA. Still getting a few storms and moderate rain along more elevated portions of the front in our southern CWA where around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE still exists. These storms pose little/no severe risk but will keep a close eye on rainfall amounts given how soaked that portion of our CWA is. All of this activity should wind down shortly after sunrise as the LLJ weakens and midlevel lapse rates stabilize somewhat. The rest of the day should remain mostly dry as midlevel ridge builds slightly over our area with general AVA. Still, the airmass remains moist and there are some hints of a weak MCV arriving late in the day. These two factors could support some isolated convection during the afternoon and evening but coverage and impacts should remain very low. Flood watch currently runs until 15Z but may be able to cancel a few hours early if convective trends behave as expected. Unfortunately, active weather will continue through the weekend. Stalled frontal boundary plaguing our area all week will lift north as a warm front given exiting eastern Canada upper low and eastward ejection of what could be a very potent MCV out of the Central Plains. Mesoscale details are still somewhat unclear given a high degree of spread among various models. However, the overall synoptic stage is set for potential severe weather somewhere in the region. Another surge of the LLJ is expected, pushing at least moderate instability into the area while 0-6km bulk shear values remain strong enough on the NE fringes of this ridge to support organized convection. One wild card is that convection will likely be ongoing during the morning and that could limit instability during the afternoon. Hi-res CAM`s are split on whether we will get organized redevelopment later in the day. If organized convection can develop then straight-line winds would be the main concern, but hail and tornadoes can`t be ruled out. Luckily, best chances for storms are currently leaning toward our northern CWA which can handle more rain better than our south. These storms will also be more progressive with less potential training/backbuilding. Will obviously have to watch the hydro aspect given our water-logged south but overall doesn`t appear to be a huge flooding risk at this point. The front returns south as a cold front on Sunday. Once again, severe weather is a possibility given moderate levels of MLCAPE and deep layer shear. A lot will depend on the exact timing with the potential for an early afternoon frontal passage that limits instability for most of our CWA and focuses better severe chances just to our S/SE. Still plenty of time for refinements to this forecast though. Thankfully, quiet weather finally returns Sunday night and persists through at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions at the terminals tonight, with BR around and light to moderate rain moving through KFWA. Ceilings/visibilities may drop briefly to IFR during heavier rain or periods of BR (obs between 1-4SM to the north/east even outside rain). Conditions improve to VFR by the afternoon tomorrow. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-203-216. OH...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ024-025. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...MCD