Hickory Hills Snow Report

456 FXUS63 KAPX 240630 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 230 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Quiet and overall dry weather continues today. -Active weather pattern returns showers and storm chances at times this weekend through early next week. -High pressure returns midweek next week. No active weather is expected next Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Pattern Synopsis: A weak split flow pattern begins to set up today with low amplitude troughing across the Arctic Circle while broad ridging continues to occupy the southern U.S. Pleasant summertime conditions will persist today as surface high pressure over the Northeast supports sunny skies and precipitation free conditions. Conditions turn more active this weekend for the Great Lakes region as the aforementioned 500mb trough begins to deepen, developing closed low pressure over Hudson Bay and extending the trough axis into the Upper Midwest. A surface clipper progresses along the 60th parallel and drags a frontal boundary across Canada`s Southern Provinces this Saturday while weakening. A few showers will likely be observed mainly across Michigans Upper Peninsula, but little QPF is expected. The best chance of widespread precipitation remains on Monday as another surface low digs across the Great Lakes Region. Latest guidance continues to increase probabilities of QPF, along with the potential for some stronger embedded storms developing due to increasing afternoon instability and favorable lapse rates building across the region. Forecast Details: Today through Sunday: Conditions remain pretty benign today as high pressure is positioned directly overhead. Subsidence aloft will continue sunny skies, calm winds, and highs in the upper 70s/low 80s for most locations. Only chance of rain this weekend remains on Saturday as a surface low develops over Northern Alberta while an attached front drags across the southern Canadian provinces. This frontal passage will weaken with time, delivering light amounts of moisture to the U.S./Canadian Border. Only Eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt is expected to observe measurable rainfall Saturday afternoon and evening. Chippewa and Mackinac counties can expect a tenth of an inch or less while localized areas south of the Bridge will only observe a trace. Sunday will likely remain dry, but with an approaching shortwave combined with some lingering low level moisture, one or two showers remain possible. Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave troughing currently over the Canadian West Coast progresses eastward this weekend. Surface low pressure develops Lee of the Rockies and digs across Lake Michigan this Monday. Latest guidance depicts moderate instability building in the afternoon, PWATs are climatologically high, and CAPE profiles support a round of showers with embedded convection. Best location for active weather remains southwest of the CWA as SPC places the southern Michigan/Chicago Region in a day 4 outlook, but some stronger storms could still produce localized heavy rainfall and potential severe weather. The highest probabilities of QPF remain between a quarter to half an inch. Wednesday and Thursday Outlook: Surface high pressure appears to build on the backside of this system as it heads downstream, returning sunny skies and dry weather through the end of the forecast period. Subsequent cold air advection will drop dew points and temperatures by Wednesday, resulting in highs in the mid 70s to near 80s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Mainly VFR. Hazy skies aloft, and some patchy cirrus. Would not rule out some fog overnight, mainly MBL. Chance is smaller than last night, with somewhat drier air in place. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...JZ