Mt Holiday Ski Area Snow Report

649 FXUS61 KILN 030553 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 153 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot conditions continue Thursday and into Friday. 2) Strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday afternoon and evening and again throughout Friday and Saturday. Any storms that develop may produce locally heavy rainfall at times. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) 500H ridge centered over southeastern CONUS continues to linger, resulting in mass subsidence and hot conditions. Fresh guidance continues to paint heat indices around 100F across the entire region for Thursday. By Friday, the ridge will be dampened a bit by a shortwave moving through eastern Canada. This acts to push the hottest conditions farther south with heat indices around 100F expected again for areas primarily south of the I-70 corridor. There is some question as to how afternoon thunderstorm development and cloud cover may impact heat both days (see more below). By Saturday, deep troughing moves into the Atlantic seaboard, resulting in deep northwesterly flow across the Ohio Valley region. Above average temperatures will linger on Saturday (highs in the mid 80s along and north of I-70, low 90s for areas south) but we`ll finally fall below Heat headline criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2) An active pattern continues around the periphery of the ridge on Thursday, with the Great Lakes region receiving the bulk of the MCS train of activity. However, there is the potential for portions of central Ohio to be impacted by these rounds of storms throughout the day on Thursday. The thunderstorm threat will then expand southwestward Thursday night into Friday as the ridge breaks down. The bulk of the deep layer shear will remain well northeast of our area, however, some ripples of 25-35 knots of bulk shear will creep into central Ohio by Thursday afternoon as a shortwave moves through the northwesterly flow. This, combined with 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, PWATs around 150% of normals, and steep low level lapse rates introduces a strong/severe thunderstorm threat into our northeastern counties (central Ohio) Thursday afternoon and evening hours. However, with that being said, confidence in thunderstorms making it down to our area isn`t overly robust. Highest confidence in thunderstorm development and MCS track(s) remains across northern and northeastern Ohio during Thursday day timeframe, given the slightly more westerly 0-3km shear vector. As we head into the overnight hours, the ridge continues to dampen, introducing a shortwave disturbance and stronger northwesterly flow begins to encroach into our region. This shift puts us moreso into MCS territory in teams of shear and driving winds. However, as we head into the overnight, we lose our SB instability. Despite this, an axis of around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will linger overnight and PWATs increase to around 180% of normals. Unfortunately, trying to time out MCS arrival is notoriously difficult and often depends largely on previous MCS development/decay and residual outflow boundaries. There is some consensus between hires guidance that some type of MCS remnant will move down into the I-70 corridor during the early morning hours on Friday. However, how much this holds together remains to be seen. Similar concerns remain in place as we head into the weekend, with a deep trough digging into the Atlantic seaboard, placing our forecast area in deep northwesterly flow for Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible, though this will largely depend on previous thunderstorm development and where residual cloud cover lays out. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet conditions remain in place through Thursday morning hours. River valley fog is possible once again and have dropped KLUK accordingly. Overland fog is not widely anticipated for other areas given antecedent dry conditions. A diurnal cu deck will develop Thursday afternoon and winds will pick up to 10 knots or so out of the west throughout the afternoon hours. There a low chance for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms to develop around central Ohio, primarily impacting KLCK and KCMH, however confidence is quite low in this right now. Similarly, additional thunderstorm chances are possible during the overnight into Friday for central and western Ohio, but with low confidence, chose to not include in the TAFs at this time. Winds decrease Thursday evening, becoming variable around 3 knots overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible late Thursday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ042-051-053>055-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-043>046- 052-056. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075- 080. && $$ DISCUSSION...Aiena AVIATION...Aiena