Mt Holiday Ski Area Snow Report

785 FXUS61 KILN 140607 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increase POPs and QPF with the next round showers and heavy thunderstorms moving through this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat of flooding will continue to be a concern. 2) Warmer temperatures will move into the region over the weekend followed by the passage of a cold front late Sunday night or Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) The next round of showers and thunderstorms with more heavy rainfall is currently tracking into our counties along the Ohio and Indiana state line near the Richmond and Greenville area. This is the next wave or disturbance that is riding along the stalled frontal boundary over our area. The latest 00z CAM high-res forecast guidance indicate this complex of strong to severe storms may evolve into a slow moving MCS as it tracks southeastward across our area this morning. SPC continues to have much of the CWA in a marginal to slight severe risk through this morning with damaging winds as the main threat. Marginal severe hail and an isolated brief tornado is also possible. Heavy rainfall rates and training of convection will lead to additional flash flooding concerns. There will be a decent lull in the organized convection late this morning into the afternoon. Rain chances will lower later today. But there is some uncertainty on the forecast going into tonight. Some of the forecast model guidance indicates the potential for another round of showers and storms that may develop again late tonight into early Saturday morning to our northwest and track southeastward into parts of the area. The current flood watch is through 15z this morning. We will take another look at the new 12z forecast guidance and may have to extend portions of the flood watch if trends show another round of convection. KEY MESSAGE 2) A small mid level ridge of will try to build northward into the lower Ohio Valley this weekend. This ridge will shift the stationary frontal boundary and active storm track of convection northward into the lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region Saturday into Sunday. Warmer temperatures and a very humid air mass will lead to high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s this weekend. Heat indices may approach advisory criteria between 100 and 104 degrees Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will push southeastward through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday morning with another round of showers and thunderstorms. A weak area of high pressure will build down across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley Monday and Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight. The best chance of showers/storms and heavy rain will be from KDAY south towards Cincinnati, although showers are likely as far north as KCMH/KLCK through early morning. The best chance of IFR visibilities and ceilings will be in the areas of heavier rainfall, but will need to keep an eye on the potential for IFR conditions in lower ceilings and patchy fog areawide (even outside of showers/storms) late tonight into the morning. Showers/storms should diminish in coverage throughout the morning with conditions gradually improving late morning through the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable throughout the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR visibilities possible in fog and low clouds Friday night into Saturday morning. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...15