Mt Holiday Ski Area snow report

393 FXUS61 KILN 030701 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 301 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area from 8 PM Friday through 8 PM Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence of extreme heat through Friday daytime hours. Chance for thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. 2) Heat Advisory issued for the 4th of July holiday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected on the 4th. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Friday Heat-- The 500mb ridge continues remains anchored over the Tennessee Valley as of this writing will subtly dampen over the next 24 hours or so. However, during Friday daytime hours, mass subsidence resulting in mostly clear skies and sinking/ compressing air continues to contribute to our early July heat wave. Daytime highs today reach the mid 90s again with very sticky Tds in the 70s; this results in heat indices between 100 and 105 for the entire CWA on Friday. Areas along I-70 and north may feel a subtle afternoon breeze (closer to the pressure gradient) of around 5-10 MPH, but it won`t be enough to alleviate the extreme heat. As such, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through 8:00 PM tonight. By tonight, the forecast gets a bit trickier. A handful of CAMs suggest isolated thunderstorm development by the late afternoon into evening hours. Areas outside of thunderstorms will remain warm and balmy, with lows in the mid 70s and patchy river valley fog again. Friday Storms-- By Friday afternoon, there is good consensus that the 500mb ridge will be dampening with the center of it shifting slightly eastward. This acts to bring somewhat more zonal upper level flow back over the Great Lakes region, weaken the mass subsidence, and allow for shortwave disturbances to reintroduce PoPs back into our forecast beginning Friday afternoon. Without substantial forcing over our area and very weak shear, any thunderstorm development Friday will be focused along outflow boundaries from storms in the Upper Great Lakes region or other mesoscale processes. A handful of deterministic guidance paints scattered convection on Friday evening, though placement is all over the place. Best guess would be that we get some blowoff convection along and north of I-70 sometime tomorrow afternoon and evening. While we won`t have strong upper level support, we will have a rather robust thermodynamic environment with very high DCAPE and MLCAPE values. When we combine that kind of instability with PWATS of 2+ inches, we will have an environment ripe for precipitation loading leading to heavy downpours and microbursts. While these will be "splat" style storms, rapid downward acceleration of air and momentum can produce some very strong/ severe winds. Additionally, have a plan for lightning should be you outside when storms pop up. KEY MESSAGE 2) Saturday heat-- Have opted for a Heat Advisory beginning Friday at 8PM and continuing through Saturday daytime hours. Confidence on hitting widespread Advisory criteria is not quite as high in a black and white sense, given that the signal for more widespread convection is higher on Saturday. However, with a good portion of the CWA forecast tickles criteria Saturday before storms get going, the fact that we`ll be in day 6 of a heatwave, Heat Risk lightning up across the region, and the anticipated large amount of outdoor crowds/gatherings, felt that going with an Advisory was justified. Of course, convection could throw a wrench in the heat (see more below). Outside of storms, plan for 4th of July heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100, without much of a breeze. Saturday storms-- The Ohio Valley will be well under zonal flow and the environment won`t be as capped as previous days. Similar thermodynamics as Friday will exist, with a volatile environment of 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and steep low and mid level lapse rates. PWATs remain robust, around 2.1 inches. However, on Saturday, a weak shortwave will introduce slightly better upper level forcing (very slightly better) compared to Friday, allowing for more storm coverage across the region. Best guess on timing at this junction is to expect scattered thunderstorms 3PM into the overnight hours. Similar hazards on the table: strong downbursts producing damaging winds and very heavy downpours, reducing visibility and creating quick runoff. --- Looking ahead at the long range guidance, the unsettled pattern continues with additional chances for convection. The big three (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) all paint a larger shortwave arriving to the region near the end of the weekend into Monday, pulling in some cooler (ish) temperatures behind it. At the very least, our daytime highs early next week look to return to more seasonal 80s with daily chances for storms. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Another night with patchy fog and calm conditions across the region. Have dropped a handful of sites accordingly. Fog should burn off after sunrise Friday morning, giving way to another quiet day with a few diurnal cu and light wind out of the southwest. Some high cirrus will move over the region during the afternoon into the evening hours. Almost included a PROB30 for thunderstorms in the evening hours but due to very low confidence on timing and location, chose to exclude it at this time and just mention the possibility of evening storms here. Should storms fire, they`ll be more pop-ip in nature with heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Outside of any thunderstorms, expect winds to go calm again overnight and patchy fog to develop. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for OHZ042-043- 051-053-060>062-070-071-077-078. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for KYZ091>093. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for INZ074. && $$ DISCUSSION...Aiena AVIATION...Aiena