Falcon Ridge Snow Report

456 FXUS63 KFGF 050455 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1055 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonally warm weather into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 ...Synopsis... This afternoon, an upper level low is located near the Twin Cities, with lingering rain and stratus to its northwest over much of west central MN. Rain will slowly come to an end as the low tracks towards the Great Lakes tonight. In its wake, a mix of stratus and fog is expected to develop as high pressure nudges in from the west. Thereafter, expansive ridging over the western CONUS will propagate eastward, bringing ever warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions over the next seven days. Temperatures over the course of the week will warm from the upper 30s/40s on Thursday, into the 40s on Friday and then well into the 50s from Saturday through early next week. The ridge does flatten a bit over the weekend, but any weak waves propagating through the flow still look to remain well to our north. Early next week, another ridge over the western US pushes eastward out of the Rockies. 850 mb temperatures Sunday night into Monday are near their climatological max over the western Dakotas, with 90th percentile values extending eastward into our southern FA. With 850mb temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees Celsius Monday afternoon, portions of southeastern ND and west central MN are forecasted to have highs push to near 60 degrees. Cloud cover, along with a quick passing cold front tracking southeastward Monday afternoon both may limit just how warm we get. If the front slows down and clouds can hold off, temperatures may climb a few degrees over 60. This is supported by the 75th percentile of the NBM, which shows highs in our region generally in the 61 to 63 degree range. For reference, average high temperatures by early next week are on either side of 40 degrees (upper 30s near the Canadian Border, low 40s near the SD border). Behind the front, temperatures will drop just a bit into the 50s, which is still well above average. ...Rain Slowly Ending Late Wednesday... After three days of stratus and on and off rain, the upper low responsible for the latest dreary weather will finally push northeast tonight. This will bring an end to rainfall. Cloud cover may not be as fast to leave, with stratus or fog forming overnight. Low level winds to look to remain a bit elevated, which may help limit the areal extent of fog and keep us with more stratus instead. Nonetheless, with recent rainfall, a few patches of fog are forecast overnight into Thursday morning across much of eastern ND into adjacent portions of northwestern MN. && .AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 Just as most sites had cleared out for the first time in a few days IFR to LIFR CIGS are spreading in from the north. GFK has already fallen to IFR with other sites soon to follow and Fargo the last by 08z. Minimum CIGS of 300-500ft will support isolated LIFR but mostly IFR through the morning. Clearing by the afternoon will finally allow for a longer period of VFR skies albeit still a change for some SCT clouds at MVFR levels. Gusts will be hit and miss tonight but as high as 25kts will occur for GFK, DVL, and FAR through 15z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...TT