Holimont Snow Report

638 FXUS61 KBUF 020701 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings a round of beneficial rain showers through the first half of today, followed by dry weather and seasonable temperatures this weekend. 2) Below average temperatures with frost potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a round of beneficial rain showers through the first half of today, followed by dry weather and seasonable temperatures this weekend. A mid level trough digging across the upper Great Lakes is forcing a cold front southeast through western and northcentral NY this morning, with the main area of anafrontal rain showers perched just off to our northwest and slowly sagging southeastward. Ahead of the front, PWAT values are near the 100th percentile for this time of year, along with a stout 35-45 knot southwesterly LLJ. However, with the showers being mainly anafrontal in nature, this activity will not be able to take full advantage of the more plentiful moisture and much stronger forcing for ascent along and ahead of the low level portion of the front. Thus, while there will be a period of beneficial showers, the heavy rainfall/flooding threat will be near zero. The main window for more persistent showers will be this morning through midday/early afternoon, just behind the surface cold front. Rainfall amounts of a half to three-quarters of an inch are expected across a good chunk of the area, with lesser amounts expected across the interior Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and southern Tug Hill region. A few widely scattered light showers may linger in the wake of the cold front this afternoon, especially toward the North Country, otherwise dry and seasonable weather is on tap for the upcoming weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures with frost potential early next week. A few showers may accompany a strong cold front forecast to cross the area Sunday night, ushering in the coolest airmass we`ve seen since last spring. 850 mb temperatures are expected to plunge to near 0C to -2C during the first part of next week, with daytime highs not climbing out of the 50`s for much of the region, and possibly only upper 40`s for highs across the Tug Hill and western Dacks by Tuesday. The axis of a strong upper level trough axis will cross the area Monday, possibly producing a few additional showers, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. The main impact will be frost potential Monday night, and possibly again Tuesday night, especially inland of the lakeshores. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front entering northern portions of the forecast area as of this writing. Although there are currently a few scattered light showers north of the Thruway, the main area of anafrontal rain showers is perched just off to our northwest and slowly sagging southeastward. The main window for more persistent showers will be this morning through midday/early afternoon just behind the surface cold front, with predominantly light to moderate intensities yielding mainly MVFR VSBYs, although brief IFR VSBYs will be possible within any heavier showers. The more impactful element for flight ops will be a period of widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS from early this morning through midday/early afternoon. A return to mainly VFR flight conditions will then take place from northwest to southeast from early to mid afternoon, lasting through at least the end of the 06Z TAF period. Outlook... Tonight through Sunday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North-Central NY. Sunday night through Monday...Periodic rain showers with MVFR or worse possible. Monday night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North-Central NY. && .MARINE... Winds veer NWerly this morning with wind speeds 10-15 knots through around midday, before increasing during the second half of the day bringing a period of low-end SCA conditions from Hamlin Beach to near the Saint Lawrence River later this afternoon through tonight, for which a SCA is in effect. There is the possibility that SCAs may need to be expanded westward to the Niagara River with a later update. Otherwise, high pressure will bring a return to lighter winds and lower wave action on the Lakes this weekend, before a strong cold front plows across the lower Great Lakes Sunday night, with freshening NWerlies likely bringing a round of solid Small Craft Advisory conditions later Sunday night into Monday night. Conditions will improve by Tuesday with a weakening pressure gradient as high pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM