Holimont Snow Report

241 FXUS61 KBUF 120643 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 243 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Higher confidence for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather expected through midday, then scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Dry weather expected through midday, then scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening. High pressure over the area will keep dry weather intact through midday, with any patchy fog dissipating by mid morning. High pressure will shift east later this morning making way for the next fast-moving wave in the persistent northwesterly flow regime to move through our area, bringing the next round of scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. The change with this update will be a better chance for a few strong to severe storms, mainly owed to higher levels of instability expected this afternoon/evening, with CAPE values now forecast to be in the 1000-1200 J/kg range and 0-6km shear remaining around 30-35 knots...all combined with favorable timing of the mid level shortwave crossing our area. Overall moisture will also get a modest boost with this shortwave trough, as PWAT values climb back into the 1.3" to 1.5" range. Though not excessively high, this will allow for the possibility of heavy rain to accompany any stronger storms, however a progressive storm movement should mitigate any localized flash flooding concerns. Putting this all together, does now appear there may be at least some threat for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Main threat will be strong to damaging winds, with a lesser threat of hail. Areas with the best potential for seeing a few strong to severe storms will be from the Finger Lakes region westward where the better instability will develop, and thus the SPC now has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across these areas. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS fog across the Southern Tier has reached KJHW and this fog is expected to persist through 13-14Z. Some patches of fog are also possible near KART. Otherwise dry through midday with a frontal boundary just to our south. A shortwave trough will bring this frontal boundary to our south back northward later today, while also serving as a trigger for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm may bring localized, brief IFR flight conditions and gusty surface winds. This activity will diminish through the evening hours with the loss of daytime instability and with the earlier passage of the shortwave trough. Behind the shortwave another period of IFR flight conditions will be possible for the western Southern Tier (KJHW)later tonight. Outlook... Thursday...Local IFR in valley fog across the Southern Tier early, otherwise mainly VFR with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... An overall weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place through the remainder of the work week, with no more than mainly light to gentle breezes expected, although a modest uptick in northerly flow later Thursday night into Friday may bring some light to moderate chop across Lake Ontario. There will be the chance for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening, a few of which may produce strong winds and locally higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM/Thomas MARINE...JM