Madawaska Valley (Radcliffe Hills) Snow Report

491 FXUS61 KBUF 170531 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch upgraded to a Freeze Warning for areas where the growing season is still active. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chilly through Sunday morning with a few lingering rain and wet snow showers across higher terrain this morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday afternoon and likely lasts through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly through Sunday morning with a few lingering rain and wet snow showers across higher terrain this morning. Chilly NNW flow will continue this morning, with lake induced instability and upslope flow supporting a few widely scattered showers with the best coverage across higher terrain. Cooling surface and boundary layer temps may allow a few wet snowflakes to mix in across higher terrain briefly around daybreak before the showers end, but there will be no accumulation. Lake effect and upslope clouds will linger this morning, but strong subsidence and drying will then allow for rapid clearing with plenty of sunshine by this afternoon. The cold airmass will only support highs in the mid to upper 40s for lower elevations and lower 40s higher terrain despite the afternoon sun. High pressure will build from the Ohio Valley into PA and the Mid Atlantic tonight, with associated dry air and subsidence bringing clear skies to our region. The clear skies will certainly support radiational cooling overnight, but with the high centered south of the region a light breeze may persist in most areas and limit radiational cooling to some extent. A Freeze Warning has been issued for areas where the growing season is still active, but the prospect of a light breeze persisting lowers confidence that temps will drop below freezing in some areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday afternoon and likely lasts through next weekend. Strong high pressure will drift to the Mid Atlantic and New England by Sunday afternoon, with southwest return flow quickly removing the chilly airmass from the region. Highs will reach the lower 60s for lower elevations and mid 50s for higher terrain and the North Country after a chilly start. Sunday will begin an extended stretch of dry and sunny weather that will likely last all the way through next weekend. High pressure surface and aloft will take up residence across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the pattern stagnating for an extended period of time. This will yield dry weather and plenty of sunshine each day for the foreseeable future. A cutoff low will be trapped within the ridge just off the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast all week, but model and ensemble consensus keeps this system well removed from the eastern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Chilly NNW flow will continue to support lake effect and upslope clouds this morning, with MVFR CIGS across higher terrain and mainly VFR for lower elevations. A few widely scattered light lake effect showers will continue through early to mid morning, with some wet snowflakes possibly mixing in across higher terrain. Dry air and subsidence will quickly erode the clouds later this morning, with clearing skies and VFR by afternoon. Clear skies and VFR will then continue through tonight as strong high pressure centers just south of the region. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Low pressure will quickly exit the Canadian Maritimes today, with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. Moderate NNW flow will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through this morning, with subsiding winds and waves this afternoon. The surface high will settle into the Mid Atlantic and southern New England by Sunday, allowing winds to swing to the southwest and remain somewhat elevated with a moderate chop on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ001>005-010-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock