Dacre Heights snow report

980 FXUS61 KBUF 120658 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of potentially dangerous heat early next week, especially Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of potentially dangerous heat early next week, especially Tuesday. Large dome of high pressure located over the Four Corners region and Intermountain West today, will expand east across much of the central CONUS Monday, where its center will strengthen to an impressive 600dam over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes region. The eastern periphery of this large ridge will then expand east into the central and lower Great Lakes region Tuesday. In response, surface temperatures will rise above average Monday, however humidity levels will remain in check. This should keep heat indices mainly in the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s possible across the typically warmer locations across the lake plains. Tuesday will be the hottest day with 850mb temps trending even a bit warmer with the latest guidance, rising into the the 22C-24C range (99th percentile for mid-July), with the highest values across western NY. This will support highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. When combined with rising humidity levels, heat index values are expected to range from the mid 90s to near 100 across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region. A fairly stout 30-40 knot LL jet will be located just 1-2 kft off the deck Tuesday afternoon, allowing a good portion of those stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. When combined with a tightening pressure gradient, expect to see frequent WSW to SW`erly gusts in the 25-35 mph range, with gusts to 40 mph possible northeast of Lake Erie and east through northeast of Lake Ontario. This will at least provide some natural relief to the heat, especially across those areas downwind of the lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period as even drier air continues to build into our region as high pressure continues to build further south across the lower Great Lakes region. This will also result in much lower probabilities for fog across the Southern Tier Valleys through the early morning hours. Light and variable winds through mid morning will become NE`erly around 5-10 knots from late morning through early evening, before veering more S/SE`erly tonight while weakening to 5 knots or less. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Light winds and near flat wave action will be in place today through Monday. SW`erly breezes with then freshen by Tuesday, with a period of near SCA to SCA conditions possible from Tuesday through at least Tuesday night, with the higher winds and waves expected on Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM