Dacre Heights Snow Report

539 FXUS61 KBUF 070539 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer and breezy today with scattered showers through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and breezy today with scattered showers through Thursday. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region and ridging northward across the eastern Great Lakes early this morning will gradually give way to a surface low and associated fronts throughout the remainder of the day. However, before getting to far ahead of ourselves, with the ridge of high pressure currently overhead, another cool night is expected with lows dropping down into the low to mid 40s, and a range of 30s across the Tug Hill region and into Lewis county. This being said, patchy to areas of frost are possible across the North County. Now heading into the remainder of today, a tightening pressure gradient between the approaching cold front and exiting surface low along with warm air advection beneath a 40 knot low level jet will overspread the area. As such a southwest wind to around 3kft during peak heating will support breezy conditions across the region, especially for areas northeast of Lake Erie. Wind gusts will range between 35 and 40 mph across the Niagara Frontier this afternoon. Additionally, increasing moisture ahead of the associated shortwave trough and cold front will support widely scattered showers across the region this afternoon/evening. In the wake of the frontal passage tonight not only will winds diminish, but showers will remain likely. Rainfall amounts will be widely scattered and be less than 0.15 inches. Looking into later half of the work week, a longwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region, supporting seasonal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 60s. A cool, westerly flow across the Lakes will support lake effect and diurnally driven showers, with much of the focus across north-central New York Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A ridge of surface high pressure overhead as of 06Z continues to support VFR conditions to prevail. Meanwhile, to the west of the area mid to high level clouds are increasing ahead of an incoming cold front. A low level jet of up to 40knot within the warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned front today, will support gusty southwest winds, with gusts between 30 to 35 knots possible for the Niagara Frontier mainly impacting KBUF an KIAG, and up to 20 knots elsewhere. With the frontal passage tonight, a few showers will be possible along the cold front, with the best chances for showers across the North Country at KART. Flight conditions will largely remain VFR in shower activity. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday..Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers. Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A southwest flow will freshen on the Lakes today. Offshore winds early this morning will increase and back to the southwest later this morning. Winds and waves for a majority of both Lakes today will warrant Small Craft Advisories. Winds and waves will diminish tonight before west winds freshen on the Lakes Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ044- 045. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAL