Calabogie Peaks snow report

193 FXUS61 KBUF 220738 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 338 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A soaking rain moves into the region today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A soaking rain moves into the region today. A potent shortwave trough, that is partially convectively enhanced, will track across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into WNY through the day today. Out ahead of this trough, showers associated with a west to east oriented ribbon of vorticity and warm front is pushing into southwestern NY early this morning. This area of showers will continue to push northeast into the areas south of Lake Ontario through daybreak. Most guidance breaks up the showers with northeast progress into the area as associated vorticity weakens. Another area of rain will then fill in from southwest to northeast starting around and shortly after daybreak as the more potent shortwave energy approaches the area. Steady rain is expected for most of the area into the afternoon. Rainfall may be moderate to at times heavy as the trough crosses the area and an influx of moisture accompanies it. A warm front will be draped across the area as the trough crosses the region, which will also help to increase forcing as well, supporting the widespread rain. Some thunderstorms will be possible, mainly near the NY/PA border, where more instability will be available, heavier downpours will be possible with any thunderstorms. The sfc low associated with the system will track across Pennsylvania later in the day, along the axis of a larger trough extending south out of Canada. The back edge of the steadier rain and showers should move out of the WNY area by late afternoon, and out of the North Country by the early to mid evening time. Guidance is still in disagreement with the ending of the steadier showers by +/- a few hours of the times mentioned above. A few showers will be possible through the evening after the steadier rain tapers off. With low level moisture remaining across most of the area tonight, mist and/or drizzle will be possible as well for at least the first half of the night tonight. Higher rainfall amounts have shifted slightly north, but the main axis of higher rain still remains across the Western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes, where around an inch of rainfall will be possible. Rainfall amounts will lower to a half inch or less for the western Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR flight conditions will persist through around daybreak, although light rain will advance northeast across western NY through the early morning hours. CIGS will then deteriorate to MVFR/IFR from southwest to northeast through midday/early afternoon. IFR/LIFR will be most common across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region (KJHW/KROC), with mainly MVFR CIGS found elsewhere through the day. A steady rain (moderate at times) will also advance northeast across the area during this same timeframe with a mix of mainly VFR/MVFR VSBY. Steady rain will taper off from west to east late this afternoon through this evening. IFR/MVFR CIGS will persist into the evening hours, however a gradual northwest to southeast improvement is expected through the overnight hours. However, a plethora of lingering low level moisture will likely lead to areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY in fog and stratus intersecting the hilltops across the higher terrain, especially south of Lake Ontario. Outlook... Tuesday...Becoming VFR. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... The wind will become northeast and increase during the day today as an area of low pressure tracks south of the region. Winds this afternoon will remain mostly below SCA levels with a light to moderate chop on the lakes. One area that is expected to be very close to lower end SCA levels is the Ripley to Dunkirk portion of Lake Erie. An SCA may be needed for this zone for the afternoon hours today. After this afternoon, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least the middle of the week, but choppy conditions will be possible at times. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SW AVIATION...JM MARINE...SW