Calabogie Peaks Snow Report

220 FXUS61 KBUF 250532 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 132 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool; lake effect rain showers diminish today, with afternoon convection lingering east of Lake Ontario into the early evening. 2) Showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday and last through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Cool; lake effect rain showers diminish today, with afternoon convection lingering east of Lake Ontario into the early evening. A chilly airmass to start the day today, with 850 hPa temperatures around +7 to +8C over the warm lake waters aiding in lake effect rain showers. As drier air approaches activity over and off Lake Erie will continue to weaken, while a still moderate, but narrow plume of lake effect rain east and southeast of Lake Ontario will continue just past sunrise. As drier air and daytime increased mixing heights weaken the organization of the lake effect rain band expect this band of rain to weaken to scattered showers by late afternoon. An upper level trough axis will pass across eastern zones this afternoon, and this feature combined with very limited daytime instability will trigger a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Limited shear will likely leave this activity as just garden variety storms that will end through the late afternoon and early evening with the loss of daytime heating and now on the backside of the recently passed mid level trough axis. Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday and last through Friday. A shortwave trough will guide a cold front towards our region Thursday...with this front nearly stalling across our region through Friday morning as an upper level low deepens and slides southward from Hudson Bay. A southerly flow of moisture ahead of this front will boost PWat values upwards towards 1.5 inches, that with an increasing warm cloud depth to 11K-12K feet and short MBE vectors could bring a period of moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Any training of storms along this stalling front could pose a risk for at least poor drainage flooding. A weaker wind flow aloft leading to 0-6 km bulk shear vectors less than 30 knots suggests the overall severe threat will remain limited. This front will then push eastward later Friday as surface high pressure from the northern Plains expands eastward, with a drier airmass diminishing the rain showers. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cool moist cyclonic flow will support some measure lake effect showers east and southeast of the lakes through early evening. Expect a mixture of VFR to MVFR-IFR cigs and lower vsbys within shower activity. Off Lake Erie..depleting moisture and slowly warming mid-levels will more than likely limit or see diminished lake effect shower activity east and southeast of lake Erie through late this afternoon. Off Lake Ontario...deeper moisture will support a fairly organized band or bands this morning between KFZY and KART. Diurnal influences will then take over by early this afternoon, with continued scattered to numerous showers inland from the lakes. However...by late in the day we will see shower activity also diminish with the loss of moisture. With the loss of daytime heating and continued fleeting moisture shower coverage will all but dwindle or end tonight. A light wind flow will likely allow for fog formation (IFR or lower visibilities) within the valleys of the So. Tier and Black River Valley tonight, though some degree of lingering clouds may limit the expansiveness of the fog. Outlook... Wednesday...Early morning fog (IFR), then VFR expected. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR, except brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected. && .MARINE... A cool upper level low will exit the eastern Great Lakes today, with surface high pressure building towards the Lakes from the Ohio Valley. As winds subside this morning, waves will lower below small craft thresholds on Lake Ontario with SCA ending. With the cool upper level low still nearby, waterspout formation is still possible through the morning hours. A brief period of non-SCA conditions are likely later today and through Wednesday night. A southerly flow on Thursday ahead of a cold front will bring choppy waters to the Lakes, with a chance for small craft advisory conditions over the northeast waters of Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ004>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...AR MARINE...Thomas