Mount Pakenham Snow Report

370 FXUS61 KBUF 040655 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 255 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made during this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periodic, scattered to occasionally more numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through Friday night. 2) Quieter weather expected this Labor Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periodic, scattered to occasionally more numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through Friday night. Cyclonic flow overhead of the region today will allow embedded shortwave troughs to pass across New York State through tonight. Meanwhile at the surface a secondary cold front is gradually sagging south early this morning and should reach the NY/PA state line by daybreak. As the front moves south this morning, there will remain chances for a few additional showers, though these showers will remain south of the I-90. Some additional scattered showers and storms will be possible later today for areas southeast of the Niagara Frontier towards the western Southern Tier due to the vicinity of the lingering frontal boundary as it continues to gradually push south and west today. Surface high pressure associated with mid-level ridging across the Great Lakes, will support fair dry weather to return tonight. With the surface high building overhead, stabilizing subsidence will become more extensive and strengthen across western and northcentral New York. Clearing skies and lingering moisture and radiational cooling will support fog to develop across much of the Finger Lakes area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Quieter weather expected this Labor Day weekend. Mid-level ridge and corresponding surface high pressure will ridge across the Great Lakes this weekend, where associated dry air and subsidence will support a drying trend for the holiday weekend. In addition to the dry air, temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler than the past couple of days, supporting highs to be near normal to slightly below normal for the start of September. Clear skies beneath the surface high, the cooler airmass overhead, weak surface winds, along with lingering low level moisture will support some valley steam fog to develop each night across areas east of Lake Ontario, the western Southern Tier and into the Finger Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front spread across areas just south of Lake Ontario this morning will continue to gradually sag southward during the predawn hours this morning. South of this boundary, lingering moisture from record breaking rainfall earlier in the night has support patchy fog/low stratus and corresponding MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities for areas west of Rochester. Surface high pressure will then continue to build further southward across the region today acting to push the slow moving front further southward to exit New York. While this will act to support conditions to improve to VFR Friday, areas closer to the front across the Southern Tier will continue to see MVFR/low-end VFR conditions and a possible scattered shower and thunderstorm. Similar to this morning, lingering moisture will support some river valley fog to develop across the Southern Tier with local IFR conditions across the Southern Tier. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog with local IFR each late night and early morning across the Southern Tier. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers. && .MARINE... A cold front will continue to drop south across the region this morning, causing winds to veer from the southwest to the northwest. In the wake of the front, surface ridging will build across the lakes for the holiday weekend where winds and waves will be below small craft criteria. The ridge will exit south Monday, causing a cold front to drop south across the lakes Tuesday. Despite the frontal passage, winds and waves continue to remain light and variable for the start of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAL