Mount Pakenham Snow Report

320 FXUS61 KBUF 210633 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 233 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated precipitation chances based on upstream radar and lowered probability of showers today due to uncertainty in timing of showers and thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions are favorable for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through this evening. 2) Cool Wednesday, with a chance of a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Conditions are favorable for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through this evening. GOES water vapor imagery shows multiple shortwave troughs embedded in a deep trough across the Great Lakes region this morning. One shortwave in particular will move across the eastern Great Lakes region today. Deep convection is ongoing near a warm front across eastern Ontario this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to move into the Niagara Frontier this morning. Mid level height falls, DPVA, and upper level divergence ahead of the trough are expected to contribute to a background of large scale ascent today. A warm front will move across the region today ushering in deep southwesterly flow and moisture with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s today. The warm front will be the first focus of convection today with showers and thunderstorms moving east across western NY. This convection will move into north- central NY this afternoon, while additional convection north of Lake Ontario moves into the North Country as well, and may lead to a more prolonged period of rain east of Lake Ontario today. Instability is expected build slowly across the region due to debris clouds and showers. Some hi-res models such as the HRRR shows a lull of convection across western NY this afternoon. An increasing southwest flow will also contribute a stable lake shadow east of Lake Erie this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along lake breeze boundaries across the Niagara Frontier and east of Lake Erie this afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the region this evening and another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected. The severe risk will continue this evening with strong low level convergence and deep moisture ahead of the front. While there remains uncertainty in overall coverage of thunderstorms today, the combination of large scale forcing, forecast surface based instability over 1000 J/Kg and curved hodographs supports isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through this evening. The SPC maintains a Slight Risk across the entire area with damaging winds as the main severe threat. An isolated tornado and severe hail can`t be ruled out. The moist air mass will also lead to the risk of localized flooding across the region. The greatest risk of flooding will likely be associated with boundaries where storms can backbuild. Coverage of showers and especially thunder will diminish by mid to late evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Key Message 2...Cool Wednesday, with a chance of a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms. The digging trough will briefly develop into a mid level closed low over western Quebec Wednesday. Deep moisture will be east of the area by Wednesday morning, but forcing for ascent from several shortwaves rounding the base of the trough coupled with cool air aloft will still support a few scattered showers through the day, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Both intensity and coverage will be far less than Tuesday. Temperatures will be quite cool Wednesday, close to 10F below average for mid summer. Highs will struggle to reach the lower 70s for lower elevations, with mid 60s across higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night will drop back into the 50s in most areas, with mid 40s for the Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with increasing south winds through 12z this morning. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with reduced flight conditions are expected through tonight, with improving conditions late tonight through Wednesday. The first round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into KIAG/KBUF between 11-14z this morning before moving east across the remainder of western NY through the early afternoon. An additional area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into the North Country/KART mid-morning through early afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on boundaries through this evening, with low confidence on the timing of thunderstorms. There is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms through this evening. Some thunderstorms are capable of strong wind gusts, large hail and torrential rain. Both visibility and ceiling restrictions are possible at times. Breezy today with south-southwest wind gusts between 20-30 knots, highest gusts are expected at KIAG/KBUF this afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday...Restrictions likely with lingering showers/isolated thunderstorm. Thursday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds will increase on the Lakes today while gradually veering more to the southwest. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on Lake Erie, the west end of Lake Ontario, and northeast end of Lake Ontario where winds are the strongest. A cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. West to west- northwest winds will increase late tonight and Wednesday, especially on Lake Ontario with solid Small Craft Advisory conditions. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from late morning through evening Tuesday. A few storms may contain gusty winds and locally higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK