Mystic Mountain At Nemacolin Woodlands Resort snow report

770 FXUS61 KPBZ 160627 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 227 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expiration of the Heat Advisory and update for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above average temperatures and smoke persist late-week. 2) Storm chances, along with severe and flooding risks, return into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Thursday, there is high confidence that near-surface smoke concentrations will increase from wildfires originating in southern Ontario and northern Minnesota. Exact concentrations of smoke will depend on the exact intensity of upstream fires, but current thoughts show moderate air quality degradations, though not as severe as the smoke event from June 2023. Smoke will progress in from the north, with concentrations rising for the I-80 corridor at sunrise; southwest PA, east OH, and the northern WV panhandle mid-morning; and northern West Virginia in the early afternoon. In coordination with OH, PA, and WV Departments of Environmental Protection, Air Quality Alerts are in place for Thursday. Refer to your state`s department for more information. The smoke impacts are expected to make it down to the WV counties as well but perhaps not as dense as further north. Smoke may actually knock 2-3 degrees off forecast high temperatures, slightly reducing heat risk from the day prior. Temperatures are expected to fall back to near-normal for the weekend. Near surface smoke is expected to linger until more flow or rain clears it out. At this point, modeling has it through at least Friday, but bouts may last through the weekend. In addition to the smoke impacts, with the more higher concentrations of smoke to the north, there stands to be a potential of differential heating along I-70 and south. This will create a gradient, with the potential of showers and thunderstorms developing in the 18Z to 00Z timeframe. KEY MESSAGE 2... The ridge breakdown will occur during the Friday and into Saturday period. This will tend towards a pattern of western ridging and eastern troughing, along with cooling temperatures into Saturday, Sunday, and early next week. Ensemble clustering is in good agreement in the general flow through the weekend. The main uncertainty will be 1) the presence of a shortwave trough late Friday and 2) the timing and position of a shortwave trough Saturday. The period on Friday will feature the shortwave trough arriving into the region with northwest flow aloft. However, the timing now seems to be late Friday into Friday night. SB instability during Friday evening at around 400 J/Kg and the 90th percentile increasing that to 800 J/Kg may allow a few storms to spawn within the afternoon evening period. The amount of instability and the flow aloft might allow for a strong to severe storm on Friday evening despite the general thunder outlook. The second round comes on Saturday as the upper level trough digs southwest into the Upper OH Valley with continued northwest flow. Here, additional moisture inject into the region with surface flow out of the southwest. The ensembles are giving SB CAPE values Saturday afternoon at around 1800 to 2000 J/Kg. The 90th percentile is not out of the question with near 3000 J/Kg possible. The CWASP values look to be around 60% with the 90th percentile at 70%, Saturday certainly looks like there will be a potential for severe weather. The other concern during this period will be the rainfall potential. Both Friday night and Saturday through Sunday morning have Marginal Risks for excessive rainfall. The NBM mean for the weekend hints at total precip at around 1.60 inches but the 90th percentile shows the potential of 3 inches. With the PWATs looking to approach 1.8 again, the 3 inch 36 hour totals for Friday and Saturday certainly seem possible. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. The northwest flow will bring smoke from Canadian wildfires into the region. The smoke is expected to make it to the near surface. This will drop visibility down to MVFR and IFR conditions in visibility. The southern edge of the smoke will create a gradient along and south of I-70. This could lead to some showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Have put PROB30s for ZZV and MGW. Some cu is possible during the day with a broken upper could layer. Expect winds around 10 knots or less. Outlook... High pressure maintains light winds and few clouds through Friday. Restrictions will likely come in the way of smoke reductions to visibility which will continue through Friday before lessening this weekend. Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into the weekend as upper level shortwaves traverse the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ008-009- 013-015-016-031. OH...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for WVZ001>004. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger/Milcarek