Boyce Park Snow Report

894 FXUS61 KPBZ 090814 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 414 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update to Key Messages. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain chances and gusty winds return late Saturday night into Sunday as the remnants of Isaias tracks north. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence remains high that quiet and dry conditions will persist through late Saturday under high pressure. Rain chances and gusty winds will increase late Saturday night into Sunday as Hurricane Isaias tracks northward over the next 72 hours. Although the system is expected to weaken as it moves inland towards the Appalachian Mountains, it will likely maintain a closed low-pressure circulation south of Ohio and in northern Kentucky; remaining a tropical depression into Sunday. The intense wind field aloft (40-45kts at 850mb), combined with increasing low-level moisture and warm air advection, will support periods of moderate to heavy rainfall within passing bands early Sunday morning and afternoon. Flooding concerns are expected to remain low following several days of dry weather and the probability of 6 hour rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance remains low (less than 10%). However, localized ponding and clogged storm drains, particularly due to falling leaves, could pose minor issues in some neighborhoods. Rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1.25 inches are expected across the region over a 24-hour period. Elevated instability (shallow but noted) could prompt a few lightning strikes on Sunday. Otherwise, the probability of severe storms is considered low. Rainfall intensity is expected to decrease Sunday afternoon and evening as dry slot advances into the region from the southwest. Isolated light rain showers or drizzle may linger into early Monday as the closed low opens into a wave and quickly tracks eastward. A secondary concern with this system will be the strong wind gusts reaching the surface, particularly along the ridges, where gusts of 30-45mph are possible. A tight pressure gradient and the potential for downslope flow, as low-level winds align perpendicular to the ridges axes, could enhanced gusts at times. Elsewhere, much of the strong low-level wind field is expected to remain aloft beneath a pronounced inversion, supported by persistent warm air advection. Quiet and drier weather is expected late Monday morning into Tuesday as high pressure returns. A passing cold front late Tuesday returns light rain chances to the region. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Confidence remains high that widespread VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period under high pressure. Winds will remain light to variable this morning. With diurnal heating after sunrise, winds will shift from the west/southwest. High to mid-level clouds will build Saturday afternoon, associated with outflow from Isaias. Outlook... Restrictions, including wind shear, are likely starting Saturday night and continuing into Sunday as the remnants of Isaias tracks north. Brief improvement to VFR Monday may be followed by more restrictions from the next disturbance Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...Hefferan