Oak Mountain Ski Center Snow Report

750 FXUS61 KALY 160544 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 144 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The southern shift in the storm track for tonight into Monday continues with the steadiest and heaviest rainfall expecting to pass south of the area. Therefore, there is no longer a flash flood risk. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain showers will push across the region later this afternoon through tonight, though there is no longer a risk for flooding. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday, but any storms are not expected to be severe. 2) Next chance for showers and some thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday ahead of a cold front; otherwise, no significant weather is expected for the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure will slide off to the east today as upper level shortwaves approach the area from the west. Sun this morning will give way to increasing clouds with high temperatures similar to Saturday reaching the mid-70s to lower 80s. Latest trends show the approaching shortwaves will bypass the region both to the north and south of the area later this afternoon through tonight. As a result, the more organized area of showers and thunderstorms will pass south of the area. Still, there will be enough moisture and upper support for some rain showers arriving later this afternoon and continuing through tonight, but overall coverage and intensity of rain has decreased. Most areas may receive less than 0.25 of an inch of rain through tonight. With this latest shift, the Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was removed from the area. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday as the system passes through, though a lack of instability should prevent any severe thunderstorms from developing. Still, some gusty winds or a brief downpour are possible with any thunderstorm on Monday. It will be more humid than recent days as well with dewpoints rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main weather feature for the remainder of the week will be the arrival of a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday which will bring our next best chance for showers. The current projected timing of this system will limit thunderstorm potential with this passing through mainly during the nighttime hours. Right now, the best chances for thunder will be north and west of Albany should activity reach these areas by Wednesday afternoon, but a lack of instability should prevent strong storms from developing. There is some uncertainty whether or not the cold front will completely cross the area or stall near the area allowing additional waves of low pressure to track along the front bringing additional precipitation chances through the end of the week. Highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s during the early to middle part of the week will trend downward into the upper 60s to upper 70s by the end of the week in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at KALB/KPOU overnight through this morning, however periods of fog will occasionally result in MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF through around 11z or 12z. Fog will likely be most prevalent at KGFL, but conditions will likely fluctuate. Mid level clouds will increase later this morning into this afternoon ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west. SCT -SHRA will develop late this afternoon/evening, which may result in brief MVFR conditions. More prevalent MVFR conditions should develop later in the evening as deep layer moisture increases. Showers will also become more numerous. Winds will initially be near calm through early this morning, becoming southerly and increasing to 8-12 kt with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...FG. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...07