Mccauley Mountain Snow Report

042 FXUS61 KBUF 090552 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 152 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of unsettled weather are possible today. 2) The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring a soaking rain to the region Sunday and Sunday Night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of unsettled weather are possible today. Longwave trough axis overhead of the region this morning will gradually shift east through tonight, supporting a ridge of surface high pressure to gradually build into the eastern Great Lakes. Overall, synoptic scale low level cold air advection will continue through today. While primarily fair weather is expected through tonight, periodic lake effect rain showers are possible over and downwind of Lake America, this morning through this evening. Lake effect rain showers will focus east of the lake, across Oswego County and toward the Tug Hill Plateau. Showers will taper off this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes and dry air from the ridge advects into the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring a soaking rain to the region Sunday and Sunday Night. Ridging at the surface and aloft will gradually exit east across western and north central New York as the remnants of Hurricane of Isaias becomes vertically-stacked as it passes through the trough aloft into the mid-Atlantic Seaboard region. Isolated rain showers will be possible after midnight Saturday night, especially across the western Southern Tier, due to moist isentropic lift aloft generated by the low pressure system. Heading into Sunday, the low will pass northeastward from the lower Ohio Valley toward the central Appalachians, while the trough axis nears the forecast area, supporting widespread steady rain (heavy at times), to overspread the region from south to north as isentropic lift aloft continues across the region and taps into the plume of moisture originating from the southern Gulf Stream. The trough axis aloft will then pass from the Great Lakes to the Appalachians and further toward the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night through Monday. Meanwhile the vertically stacked surface low will dissipate over the Ohio Valley Sunday, while a new surface low develops over the Delmarva Peninsula and deepen while moving northeastward toward southern New England Monday. Additionally Monday, a surface ridge of high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes. Overall this will act to taper the rain from west to east Sunday night into early Monday morning, with predominantly dry weather expected for the remainder of Monday. Current forecasted rainfall amounts for Sunday through Sunday night range from a quarter of an inch to near a half of an inch, with the higher amounts occurring across southern New York. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR flight conditions prevail across all terminals this morning as a ridge of high pressure enters the region from the central Great Lakes. A few widely scattered lake effect rain showers will be possible southeast of Lake America, however this activity will likely remain south of KART throughout much of today, until winds back and shift showers to enter the terminal around 18Z to 21Z. Light winds gusts will be possible this afternoon, with gusts reaching up towards 20 knots across the region. Conditions will become calmer and showers will taper off by sunset, with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday through Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with rain showers possible. && .MARINE... A trough lingers over our eastern Great Lakes waters before a ridge builds from the western Great Lakes today. Mainly westerly winds have eased to around 10 to 20 knots this morning and will ease further to around 5 to 15 knots on today. Waves have subsided on Lake Erie to 3 feet or less and will remain less than 3 feet for the remainder of the day. On Lake America, waves as large as 3 to 7 feet should persist through early this afternoon and then abate to 3 feet or less by sunset this evening. Note: waterspouts are possible on Lake America this evening through the very early evening hours of Friday. The aforementioned ridge should exit slowly eastward tonight through Saturday. Variable winds tonight will be followed by winds varying between easterly and southerly Saturday through Sunday. Sunday night through Monday morning, an inverted trough axis will sweep eastward across our eastern Great Lakes waters and quickly be followed by the eastward passage of a narrow ridge axis. Accordingly, southeasterly winds will back quickly to westerly. For the remainder of Monday, the ridge will begin to exit east and be accompanied by southwesterly to westerly winds. Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected tonight through Monday. The ridge is progged to continue to exit eastward Monday night and be followed by the southeastward passage of a cold front across eastern Lake Erie and Lake America on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 20 knots should veer to northwesterly with the cold front passage. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 6 feet and another Small Craft Advisory will probably be needed. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAL/Jaszka