Mccauley Mountain Snow Report

464 FXUS61 KBUF 090648 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 248 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and notably less humid finish to the weekend, followed by a return to a somewhat more active pattern from late tonight through the first half of the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Dry and notably less humid finish to the weekend, followed by a return to a somewhat more active pattern from late tonight through the first half of the new work week. Other than some areas of patchy fog to start the day, expect a dry and pleasant finish to the weekend, with highs within a few degrees of seasonal norms. A system moving by to the north area will pump in another surge of deeper moisture that will accompany the arrival of a warm front/strong LLJ segment later tonight. This will bring the next chance for showers and storms into western NY late tonight, shifting east across the remainder of the region through early Monday afternoon. As the system moves northeast of the area later in the day, a trailing cold front will be forced south across western and north-central NY Monday afternoon and evening. A moist airmass will be in place within the warm sector ahead of the boundary, with PWAT values in the 1.5"-1.75" range. This will contribute to at least moderate diurnal instability to aid the development of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall within the moist airmass, for which WPC has a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (Level 2 out of 4) across portions of the Southern Tier, with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (Level 1 out of 4) across the remainder of the region. There will also be the threat of severe weather, mainly across the western Southern Tier where moderate shear profiles will be in place, however instability may not be sufficient to sustain more robust convection. Nonetheless, potential for a stronger storm or two will exist, with the main threat being strong winds. SPC continues with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather (Level 1 out of 5) across the western Southern Tier. The greater severe risk remains to our southwest at this time. The cold front will stall just to our south Monday night, then linger as a stationary boundary through midweek. Much drier air will reside to the north of the boundary Tuesday, while drifting ever so slowly northward toward the NY/PA line. This will keep the better threat of showers and storms going across the Southern Tier closer to the front, while the northern half of the area stays mainly dry. That said, with general troughiness and associated cool pool aloft, can`t rule out a few showers/isolated storm Tuesday afternoon anywhere inland from the lakes owed to surface heating. A potent mid level shortwave and associated surface low is then progged to cross the lower Great Lakes region Wednesday, bringing a renewed threat of showers and storms midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For the 06Z TAFs, a cold front is presently entering WNY, with a noted beginning of a downward trend in surface dewpoints across western TAF sites. Though these dewpoints will lower, a still small dewpoint depression combined with a light wind flow will allow for either higher elevation IFR ceiling heights to form (KJHW) or patches of fog to form, both across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Will place a tempo for lower visibilities for KJHW, KART as well as KIAG where local fog may develop. Lower flight conditions will prevail through 12-13Z, at which time daytime mixing combined with continued flow of drier air will return all sites to VFR. Expect VFR flight conditions to then persist through the end of the TAF cycle with a ridge of high pressure in control. Outlook... Late tonight through Thursday...Mainly VFR, but periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are possible. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight, although 10-15 knot westerlies will continue on Lake Ontario, with light to moderate chop across the eastern half of the Lake today. Much lighter winds and lower waves for Lake Erie. Gradient flow through the first part of the new work week will generally be 15 knots or less, with any marine headlines likely tied to thunderstorm activity. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...JM