Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails snow report

983 FXAK68 PAFC 130224 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 624 PM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)... Today marks the beginning of a prolonged wet and rainy pattern for Southcentral, with expanding showers across Southcentral and a slow-moving front into Prince William Sound. Anchorage, situated under the axis of the trough stretching from Prince William Sound to the Susitna Valley, has received several periods of moderate rainfall today. Bands of rain showers will move through the region the remainder of today into tonight, with precipitation filling in over typical down-slope areas given the weak forcing. Coastal ridging and strengthening easterly flow aloft will result in relatively lower moisture for areas west of the Chugach, limiting overall rain totals for Anchorage, but not to the extent seen with previous systems. Meanwhile, the Copper River Basin remains forecast to see relatively drier conditions with the best chances for rain expected over the mountains. Confidence has grown with regards to the expected pattern settling over Southcentral Monday into Tuesday with regards to gusty winds near Anchorage. Near Anchorage, there is increased potential for strong winds to develop out of the Turnagain Arm Tuesday morning. Strong and gusty winds will be possible through the Arm, and depending on how these winds move over Cook Inlet, may span into the southern reach of Anchorage, including the Hillside, Rabbit Creek, and Potter Valley. Areas slightly further inland such as Bear Valley into Glen Alps will see some gusty winds, but likely less impactful than areas close to the Arm. This will also bring another wet low pressure system over Kodiak Island early next week. Uncertainty remains with the progression and speed of this system, but forecast models show a faster moving trough overspreading Kodiak Island Monday afternoon, amplifying over Southcentral Tuesday morning. Rain chances will temporarily diminish on Monday with the exception of the Gulf coast and coastal mountains. Then rain chances return in earnest on Tuesday as upper level diffluence overspreads the region. -CL/BL && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... Rain continues across Southwest Alaska this afternoon as a potent shortwave embedded within the large upper level trough over the eastern Bering exits the region north into the Interior. Rainfall across Southwest should become increasingly more showery this afternoon through the overnight hours as the better upper- level support and moisture shifts north. Meanwhile, a weaker wave and surface low drops south across the western Bering, bringing a chance for rain through this evening to the Pribilof Islands. The 500 mb pattern becomes increasingly amplified through Monday as focus shifts towards a closed upper low/trough complex lifting northeast around the ridge in the North Pacific. This will set the stage for a North Pacific low to move towards the Central and Eastern Aleutians before continuing its track across the southeastern Bering towards the Southwest mainland. The moisture- rich fetch of warm air from the Pacific and more rainfall will overspread the Aleutian Chain by late tonight and spread across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska through Tuesday, with most locations seeing between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain through Tuesday. As the low progresses east, small-craft southwesterly winds and increasing wave heights can be expected for the coastal zones on the Pacific side of the eastern Aleutians and AKPen beginning tomorrow, and for Bristol Bay on Tuesday. Additionally, this system will bring a renewed possibility of marine lightning and isolated thunderstorms. At this time, the greatest potential for marine lightning continues to be Monday morning for the coastal zones south of Adak/Atka. As this system continues east, an isolated thunderstorm in the coastal zones south of the Alaska Peninsula through early Tuesday morning also cannot be ruled out, but confidence remains low for this area. Looking ahead to Wednesday, the pattern continues as the upper trough remains in place over western Alaska and the Bering Sea. By Wednesday morning, the next deepening shortwave trough digs across the Bering, bringing yet another round of rain to the Aleutians and eventually to Southwest Alaska by midweek. -JH && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... A longwave trough remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week. Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping this long range forecast trend. Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound, Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and cloud cover through this upcoming weekend. -Johnston && .AVIATION... PANC... Periods of rain with VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through Monday morning with a few breaks in the rainfall possible late this evening. A second round of heavier rain, along with IFR ceilings, is possible early Monday morning between 12z and 18z. Southeast winds with gusts around 20 to 25 knots are likely late this evening before weakening early Monday morning. && $$