Ski-Tonka snow report

050 FXUS63 KMPX 150806 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 306 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat wave continues this week. This is a long duration and cumulative threat due to daily highs in the 90s, heat indices approaching 100 degrees, and little relief overnight. - An Air Quality Alert remains in place for much of northern through east central Minnesota into western Wisconsin through Thursday due to an expected plume of heavy smoke moving south along frontal boundary. - No precipitation expected until Friday at the earliest, and mainly for western Wisconsin with low chances at that. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The forecast continues to run very similar from previous days for the WFO MPX coverage area with highs in the lower 90s (potentially as high as 95 in the TC metro counties) and a nearly cloudless sky. This is due to surface high pressure remaining anchored over the mid-upper Mississippi River Valley and the apex of 500mb high pressure ridging (again reaching 600dam per the 15/00z MPX RAOB) sitting over the region. Surface analysis does show the west-to-east quasi-stationary frontal boundary sitting over ND into northern MN into the Great Lakes, with actual showers/t-storms dotted along it for northern MN. This wouldn`t necessarily be a bad thing to receive precipitation for northern MN due to the wildfires, however the additional lightning hazard with dry antecedent conditions up north could spawn additional wildfires, which is now going to be a hazard for our portion of MN and WI. With upper level flow dragging the wildfire smoke southeastward into our coverage area, and even the slogging southward progression of the aforementioned front aiding in bringing smoke our way, air quality will be impacted thus the issuance of the Air Quality Alert for much of our central-eastern portions of our coverage area. There continues to be some wobbling in the placement of the front, particularly how far south it may come, which would determine how far south the smoke will ultimately reach. While there is high confidence on precipitation remaining away from our coverage area through Thursday, and even Friday for most of the coverage area (only western WI has small chances for precipitation), the coverage and depth of smoke becomes a serious wild card for what happens with temperatures, and thus the intensity of heat impacts. There was some thought to extending the heat headlines out through Friday with highs still in the mid 90s and a small uptick on dewpoints due to the expectation that the front will lift back north on Friday. However, with such uncertainty to how the smoke will impact the area today and tomorrow, have held off any adjustments to the heat headlines at this time and will allow time to monitor observations both at the surface and aloft. Still, the ongoing precautionary message remains: Regardless of if there is a headline out for a given county or of what type, the hazards of and precautions for excessive heat and air quality need to be recognized and accounted for. As noted in previous discussions, continue to practice Heat Safety, but now accounting for air quality as well: Stay hydrated, check on the elderly, immunocompromised, and those without A/C, check the backseat of the car, and limit time outdoors. While Friday may produce a weak few isolated showers/t-storms over western WI in association with weak isentropic lift due to the nearby front, the area will still be dominated by the broad upper level ridge. However, the ridge will retreat westward late Friday into the weekend, and then collapse going into early next week. This will not yet result in a widespread airmass change, thus highs will still reach the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend with no precipitation expected. The modest pattern change looks to come Monday onward as a large H5 low looks to drop southward from northern Hudson Bay, allowing for a more western ridge/eastern trough pattern for the CONUS early-to-mid next week. This will result in highs falling back to the lower 80s while also having small increases in precipitation chances as weak mid-level disturbances round the fringes of the upper level low. This wouldn`t be enough to bring soaking rains or mitigation for drought conditions, but it could produce some showers/t-storms here and there. Nevertheless, the break from day after day of the elevated heat would certainly be welcome going into late July. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Light SW`ly winds become light and variable early this morning prior to sunrise. Similar to yesterday morning, will need to monitor potential for patchy fog to develop. As of now, was not confident to include fog mentions in any current TAF. Main story today continues to be wildfire smoke advecting in from the NE through the course of today. Have began introducing MVFR vsby for most sites (except for MKT and RWF where smoke is not expected). Timing of the smoke should reach STC first by late morning late followed by AXN early afternoon, then EAU and RNH by mid- afternoon. Smoke will linger overnight but vsby expected to return back to VFR late evening. KMSP...Did introduce 5SM MVFR vsby for wildfire smoke. But as stated in the last discussion, the worst visibility impacts should remain north of the field. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR vis w/FU. Wind SW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Faribault-Freeborn- Martin-Steele-Waseca. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPC AVIATION...Dunleavy