Powder Ridge Ski Area snow report

081 FXUS63 KMPX 040758 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A quiet morning today if a bit muggy, with no other weather impacts for parades or fun runs. - Isolated storms return this afternoon and last through the evening, roughly 2-10pm. A couple storms may approach severe levels, but generally they will remain primarily a lightning and heavy rain threat. The majority will stay dry, with storms being isolated. - Quiet weather for a few days after today, with our next chances for storms arriving late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The last of the showers have continued to diminish this morning, with our coverage area expected to be free of all precipitation before 4am. Satellite imagery further highlights the lack of activity with our colder cloud tops in southern Minnesota in the form of anvil runoff from the actual morning activity in central Iowa. Further storms are not expected until this afternoon, making for a clear window for holiday parades or runs to go off without a hitch. It will feel a bit muggy with dew points in the mid to upper 60s as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s today under partly cloudy skies. Forecast soundings from the HRRR show a healthy plume of instability growing across the area into the afternoon upwards of 2000-2500 J/KG of SBCAPE with limited capping, with our main limiting factor being a lack of forcing for ascent amidst backing flow on the western side of a weak surface low centered over Wisconsin by midday. As such, shear is exceptionally weak today on the order of less than 20kts of 0-6km and an anticyclonic hodograph, resulting in suppressed omega driven mainly by daytime heating. The thermal profile would suggest a decent day for storms, however the lack of shear and forcing will most likely result in isolated to scattered pulse-type convection that will be fairly short lived and unable to sustain a healthy updraft for long. The relatively high dew points and PWATS around 1.5 inches are healthy enough to support some heavy rain in the storms that do manage to form, with rain rates in excess of 2``/hr possible with the strongest updrafts today. All this being said, coverage will be spotty at best, with most of the area ending up dry and an unlucky handful seeing the storm activity disrupting their holiday plans. A key thing to watch will be the initial few updrafts that try to get going amidst the daytime heating, as any remnant outflow boundaries could act as a focal point for further development by briefly enhancing the low level shear. This will unfortunately remain one of those days where the coverage and type of storms leads to low confidence in placement and timing, with the best we can do for now being a window that favors the peak heating hours of mid afternoon to early evening, diminishing after peak heating ends and our thermal profile begins to lose the low level adiabatic lapse rates. By Sunday morning, upper level flow will have tilted northerly on the western side of the previously mentioned surface low allowing a weak area of surface high pressure to settle over Lake Superior. This will generally suppress any pop up storm chances despite similar temperatures and dew points to today, with weak subsidence hindering updraft development. This weak surface high persists in the region into Monday before moving out, with our upper level flow once again becoming zonal by early Tuesday as our next system begins to slide across the area in the form of another weak pseudo- stationary frontal boundary into Wednesday morning. A weak surface low may development off the eastern side of the Rockies, however the blended and ensemble guidance remains fairly muted so far as long lived rain chances. There is pretty good consensus with around 75% of membership within the GEFS showing a good chance for showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday as this surface low moves through, but only spotty chances afterwards. Our upper level flow remains fairly zonal, setting up yet another intermittent storm pattern marked by potential shortwaves, with time of day of the shortwaves moving through likely being a key factor in overall strength. As such, the NBM forecast for much of the second half of next week showcases slight to chance PoPs which makes sense given the airmass nature of potential showers and storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Once remnant showers over far western WI dissipate, no additional storms are expected tonight. We should again see some pockets of fog/stratus form before sunrise, but the presence of a good deal of convective debris leads to lower confidence on just how much fog/stratus we`ll see. Having gotten hit by the storms Friday evening, RNH will have to greatest risk for fog if they clear out. Scattered storms will fire during peak heating Saturday afternoon, likely starting around 19/20z, but will be winding down by the time we get to sunset. This is the type of setup prob30s were made for, so that`s what we have at all terminals. Only change to the going TAFs was to delay those prob30s by an hour. Outside of thunderstorms, very little wind is expected this period. KMSP...Confidence is at 100% that we`ll see storms Saturday afternoon, but given their scattered coverage, the prob30 works well for this situation. Greatest TS risk looks to be between 22z and 02z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Winds N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc TS overnight. Winds SW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...MPG