Springhill Snow Report

181 FXUS63 KFGF 020445 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night, for hazard large hail and damaging winds. - There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper level ridging extends over the Northern Rockers and into the Northern Plains. Our area is still on the northeast side of the ridge behind the departing upper low that is currently centered near the Middle Mississippi River Valley/western Ohio River Valley. The mean ridge axis should continue to build eastward tonight into Sunday with lee troughing to the west downstream of the next stronger trough over the Pacific NW/southwest Canada. We end up with a relatively high spread in temperatures as the warmer air mass will tend to align along the main surface trough in central ND northwest northeast ND ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Monday as the main trough moves east. Temperatures in the warmer air mass to the west will tend to be 90+ with at least a chance for brief advisory type heat impacts in the western Devils Lake Basin (Heat Index Values near 100 and Wet Bulb Globe temperatures 80+). Southerly flow does increase Sunday resulting in breezy to windy conditions, however the warm nose aloft in the 5-9kft layer will tend to limit mixing potential and highest gusts should remain under 40 mph along/west of the Red River Valley. Higher Tds to the east and south also limit fire weather concerns (RH would remain 40-55%) with lowest RH (30-35%) where HRB values remain higher in ND. The best chances for wetting rain will be associated with the passage of this trough and cold front Monday with the probability for 0.5"+ highest north of Highway 2 in MN. This trough eventually stalls over the Hudson Bay region and the larger scale ridge becomes flattened, keeping our region in either northwest or westerly flow. This allows for temperatures to trend towards either side of seasonal ranges (+/- 1 standard deviation of average). It also allows for a least conditional chances for showers/thunderstorms next week as progressive/weaker shortwaves move either from Canada in NW flow or from the Pacific NW in westerly flow. The most consistent signal for the next period of precipitation with these features is late Wednesday into Thursday, though there remains high variability lowering chances for measurable rain and confidence in impacts. ...Severe Weather Risk Sunday Night... Initially capping should limit the potential for thunderstorm initiation locally Sunday, however there is a signal with CAMs at this range for a few storms to develop near the convergence zone/surface trough axis in central ND which may allow for a strong/severe thunderstorm to develop towards our far northwest in the evening hours (marginal cape and shear environment). Better signal for thunderstorm arrives late as at least some PVA occurs ahead of the main trough and front arrival late Sunday night/early Monday morning (generally 3-9am). Elevated instability and increasing effective shear could support a large hail/damaging wind threat with thunderstorms that develop. ...Severe Weather Risk Monday... Initially there is a lower risk for ongoing strong/marginally severe storms early Monday morning, though activity may remain highly elevated and marginal CAPE/shear lowers confidence in impacts initially. The main result of any ongoing convection would be what lingering impact mid level clouds have on convective evolution Monday afternoon/evening. Better forcing with the main wave favors the north while the cold front passing northwest to southeast places the region of better BL moisture pooling/instability in the warm sector to our south-southeast. Cloud cover could delay initiation in the region with more robust instability and shear ahead of the front where capping may already be playing a role in limiting local initiation. This is even more accounting for the signal for increasing smoke aloft from the Pacific NW arriving with the trough. The presence of broader forcing/convergence and a window where good instability and strong shear will be present at least creates a scenario for supercells or more organized severe clusters, so this will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Smoke remains mainly aloft through the TAF period so keeping the FEW250 in there at all sites to account for this. Main impact to operations through the period will be winds. Gusts near 30kts expected for GFK, FAR, and DVL Sunday afternoon. TVF looks to be more in the mid 20s but cant rule out a stray gust over 30 and BJI looks to peak between 20-25kts. Confidence in 30+ kts is highest at GFK and about a 60% chance at FAR and DVL with all other sites less than a 30% chance. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...TT