Swain Ski & Snowboard Resort Snow Report

990 FXUS61 KBUF 110644 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 144 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased snowfall amounts some across higher terrain Thursday night through Saturday, especially across the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain will develop tonight and continue Thursday, with colder air then allowing for the rain to mix with and change to wet snow Thursday night through Saturday. 2) Dry weather will return by early next week, with temperatures trending warmer by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain will develop tonight and continue Thursday, with colder air then allowing for the rain to mix with and change to wet snow Thursday night through Saturday. Latest ensemble means including the NBM have trended a little colder and a little higher on QPF, especially for Thursday night. Given this trend, increased snowfall totals a little with this update across higher terrain, especially for the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. A series of shortwaves diving south out of Canada will carve out a deep longwave trough over the Great Lakes by Thursday, with a broad/deep closed low evolving and casting a large footprint over the eastern CONUS and southeast Canada by Friday. At the surface, an initial low will cross the Ohio Valley tonight before giving way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis by late Thursday just off the Delmarva. An elongated surface low will then move northeast just offshore of the New England coast Thursday night through Friday night before reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday afternoon. Height falls and DPVA ahead of the digging trough will combine with increasing frontogenesis and deformation north of the surface low track to support rain developing from west to east across the region tonight. The rain will be light and spotty initially this evening, then increase in coverage and intensity overnight as low levels saturate and forcing strengthens. Widespread rain will continue Thursday as the surface low passes south of the region, and a broad band of frontogenesis and deformation persists over northern PA and NY. Precipitation type will stay rain in most areas Thursday, but colder air surface and aloft will begin to filter into the North Country by afternoon. This will likely allow the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks to change to wet snow, with some very minor slushy accumulations possible by evening. Thursday night, an inverted trough extending north from the developing surface low will allow for steady precip to continue across Central NY and the North Country. Farther west, the deeper moisture and forcing will move away from Western NY, replaced by lake enhancement and upslope flow that will still support intermittent, light precipitation. Temps aloft and at the surface will steadily cool overnight. This will support a change to mainly wet snow for the higher terrain in the evening, with the change to wet snow then gradually progressing to lower elevations overnight. The higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks may see several inches of wet snow if the steadier precipitation holds through the night. Farther west, only expect very minor slushy accumulations across the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes and western Southern Tier, with little or no accumulation for lower elevations. Friday through Saturday, chilly northerly flow will continue, with the pool of coldest air aloft crossing the eastern Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday morning. Moderate lake induced instability will continue through the period, but short northerly fetch will keep the lake response limited to relatively weak multiple bands and lake enhancement. Upslope flow will anchor the most persistent precipitation across higher terrain, and also enhance QPF amounts to some extent. Expect occasional rain and wet snow showers to continue through the period for lower elevations, with all wet snow across higher terrain. Precip rates will be light most of the time and surface temperatures marginal, so expect additional accumulations to be minor and mainly focus across higher terrain. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather will return by early next week, with temperatures trending warmer by midweek. Chilly cyclonic north flow will continue Sunday, although much of the deeper synoptic scale moisture and forcing will have exited the region. This may still support a few spotty light rain/wet snow showers south of the lakes. Dry weather will then return early next week as strong high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes. The dry weather will likely last most of next week. It will remain chilly initially, then a warming trend will develop once the surface high moves east of our longitude and height rises/warm advection increase aloft. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak surface ridge over NY/PA this morning will drift to the east coast by this evening. Lake effect and upslope clouds with VFR bases will gradually scatter out from west to east through the morning hours. Mid/high clouds will then thicken and lower from west to east ahead of the next system. Tonight, a deepening mid level trough will dig into the Great Lakes while an associated surface low crosses the Ohio Valley. Light rain will develop from west to east overnight, becoming steadier and more widespread during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. CIGS/VSBY will stay VFR initially, then deteriorate to MVFR/IFR late tonight as low levels saturate with increasing precipitation rates. Outlook... Thursday...Widespread IFR in rain. Thursday night through Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain and/or wet snow showers. Snow will be most prevalent across the higher terrain. Sunday...Improving back to MVFR/VFR with a few spotty rain or wet snow showers southeast of the lakes. && .MARINE... A weak surface ridge will build over the lower Great Lakes this morning before reaching the eastern seaboard by this evening. Winds and waves will quickly subside this morning. Low pressure will then cross the Ohio Valley tonight before giving way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast by late Thursday. The coastal low will then move northeast just offshore of New England Thursday night through Friday night before reaching the Canadian Maritimes Saturday, deepening along the way. Northeast winds will increase tonight, then peak on Thursday as the low passes by to the south, with higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Winds will diminish somewhat by Friday, but will still likely be strong enough to support Small Craft Advisory conditions. Only gradual improvement is expected over the weekend with elevated northerly winds continuing. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock