Swain Ski & Snowboard Resort Snow Report

981 FXUS61 KBUF 140603 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 203 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Not as warm with a few scattered showers possible today. 2) Widespread rain Thursday night through Friday. 3) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Not as warm with a few scattered showers possible today. A cold front will continue to move southeast and away from the area this morning. Post-frontal WNW flow and DPVA with the associated mid level trough may support a few scattered showers today, mainly across the North Country and the Southern Tier where somewhat deeper moisture is available. Some patchy fog and drizzle will also continue today across the North Country, especially across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks in upslope flow. Otherwise, expect a wealth of low stratus in gradually veering northwest flow with a few odd breaks of sun possible later this afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday, but still a few degrees above average for mid October. Dry weather will prevail tonight through Thursday as high pressure moves from the upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec and New England. North/northeast flow will continue to support areas of low stratus tonight through Thursday morning before increasing sunshine during the day Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread rain Thursday night through Friday. The pattern will turn more active again Thursday night through Friday, with a period of widespread rain expected across the entire region. A progressive mid level low over Colorado early Thursday will phase with a strong northern stream trough over the Upper Midwest Thursday night, with associated strong mid/upper level forcing supporting a deepening surface low passing over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night through early Friday. Strong forcing and moisture transport with this system will support rain overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Thursday night, with periods of rain continuing Friday through Friday evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1.0" are likely with this system. It has been quite dry across much of the region over the past month, so this will be beneficial rain. There may be just enough instability to support a few embedded thunderstorms as well, especially if the surface low tracks just north of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible. The surface low will continue to deepen as it moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday night, and then into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. Strong cold advection within the sharp mid level trough will deliver the coldest airmass of the fall season thus far by late Friday night and Saturday. DPVA/height falls from the mid level trough and increasing lake induced instability will support the continuation of showers Friday night. The boundary layer may become cold enough to support a few wet snowflakes by late Friday night and Saturday morning. Despite strong lake induced instability, short fetch northwest flow and a rapidly drying airmass will keep the lake response muted and brief. In terms of the potential for the first wet snowflakes of fall, it will be a race between the drying airmass and arrival of sufficiently cold air. There is a low chance of a very minor coating of slush on the grass across high terrain Saturday morning, otherwise no accumulation and zero impact is expected. Any rain/snow showers will end by midday Saturday with ongoing drying and subsidence. The other story will be the much cooler temperatures, with lows dropping into the 30s Friday night and only recovering to the 40s for highs Saturday. It will be blustery as well, with wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range Friday night through Saturday, and up to 40 mph along the lakeshores. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s again Saturday night, although winds may never become light enough to allow for frost formation. The cooldown will be very brief, with above average temperatures quickly returning early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will exit southeast of the area before daybreak, with post-frontal northwest flow allowing low stratus to expand across the region. MVFR CIGS will become widespread before daybreak, with IFR across the North Country and higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Lower CIGS will continue much of today, with gradual improvement to lower end VFR for lower elevations and MVFR higher terrain this afternoon. A few scattered showers or some patchy drizzle will continue this morning, mainly across the North Country and Southern Tier. Dry weather will prevail tonight, but upslope northerly flow will continue to support areas of low stratus. Expect MVFR CIGS in most areas overnight, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. Outlook... Thursday...VFR. Thursday night through Friday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. Windy. Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Post frontal west-northwest flow will remain elevated today, supporting Small Craft Advisory conditions in the nearshore zones from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, and a moderate chop elsewhere. Winds and waves will peak this afternoon before Small Craft Advisory conditions end overnight. Winds will continue to veer to the northeast late tonight through Thursday, with very choppy conditions continuing on both lakes, although winds and waves should remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will then move directly over the lower Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday. A much colder airmass will pour into the region behind this deepening low, with a period of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions (and possible gale force gusts) late Friday through early Saturday on the lower Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043- 044. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock