Val Chatel snow report

655 FXUS63 KFGF 140430 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat impacts will continue over parts of the region through much of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 While the front will be passing through the central RRV through midday Tuesday, the main air mass shift and potential increase in cloud cover will remain mainly in the Northern RRV and Devils Lake Basin. Based on NBM 5.2 which corrects for the warmer bias we have seen from previous days, the the immediate RRV in the Grand Forks metro and locations south of Highway 2 to Highway 200 in line for Heat indicies in the 97-100F range and Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures and Heat Risk within the extreme categories Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Considering the limited recovery tonight/early Tuesday I went ahead and extended The Extreme Heat Warning through 10pm Tuesday for those counties in ND/MN matching up with the timing with the counties to the south. It still looks like there will be more definite improvement north and west of the counties in the warning Tuesday. UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 The Red Flag Warning Expired as scheduled with RH improving. In the post frontal air mass Tuesday BL Tds will be falling and RH values around or lower than 30% are likely. Winds will be much less Tuesday, and even peak mixed layer winds are generally around 10 mph or less on model soundings. This lowers the probably for RFW conditions Tuesday afternoon/evening in our area. However, due to the lower RH values and hot temperatures in the parts of our NW MN counties where fuels are a concern, near critical fire weather conditions are still expected. A Special Weather Statement was issued for the areas of concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...Synopsis... Strong H5 ridging remains in place across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will gradually elongate and flatten in the coming days, keeping the warmest temperatures and heat indices generally south of Highway 200. Overall dry conditions prevail through this week, with only isolated chances for precipitation along the International Border. Given the hot temperatures and overall lack of precipitation, flash drought conditions are possible, especially in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Fire weather concerns continue through late this afternoon as drier air moves southward into northwest Minnesota. Very warm temperatures and drier dew points will support RH values in the 30-40 percent range. The general deficit in rainfall in northwest Minnesota into the central and southern Red River Valley may allow rapid fire spread in the presence of hotter temperatures. A Red Flag warning remains in place this afternoon, with further fire weather products possible for Tuesday and Wednesday. ...Dangerous Heat Wave Continues Today... Hot and humid conditions prevail this afternoon as heat indices climb into the low 100s in many areas. The northern portions of the Red River Valley will once more see heat index values upwards of 110- 115 degrees this afternoon and early evening. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the 70s across the area, with most areas only seeing a few hours below 80 degrees. Slightly cooler and drier air will move southward late Tuesday. ...Limited Relief from Heat This Week... As the H5 ridge flattens, temperatures along and north of the Highway 200 corridor will become slightly cooler, with highs expected to be in the 80s on Wednesday. Further south, temps remain in the middle to upper 90s on Wednesday, with upper 90s to near 100 degrees expected once more on Thursday. Heat index values will once more approach or exceed 100 degrees for the hottest locations south of Highway 200. Another surge of cooler air brings temps down heading into Friday, with area wide highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. The main aviation impact will be low level wind shear (35-40kt) during the early TAF period as a low level jet moves across the region. Southerly winds decrease as weak low pressure followed by a frontal zone moves through the region from the northwest to southeast through Tuesday. Winds eventually shift to the northeast then north behind this front with gusts during the daytime period over parts of eastern ND around 20kt. Wind gusts around 30kt are not expected. There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to develop near the US/Canada border, however the probability for impacts at TAF sits is low (less than 20%). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ027>030- 038-039-049-052-053. Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-054. MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>003- 015>017-022>024-027>032-040. Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ004>009-013- 014. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR