Val Chatel Snow Report

086 FXUS63 KFGF 250437 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1137 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog may impact the commute through Friday morning. - Additional light rain is expected Friday night through Saturday night, and there is the potential for widespread soaking rain early next week. These rain events may impact outdoor activities and harvest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper heights will rise briefly tonight behind today`s shortwave departing through the Great Lakes and the next shortwave coming in late Friday. The Friday night/Saturday shortwave will quickly move off into northern MN and then Canada, leaving southwesterly flow aloft again for Sunday and into the work week. A lead shortwave coming in Monday will help push a decent surface low and baroclinic zone into the Plains, although exact track is still uncertain. The main upper trough pushing through late Monday into early Tuesday, with high pressure building in behind it. Near zonal flow sets up for mid-week with a few weak shortwaves possible near the Canadian border. ...Fog tonight and Friday morning... Satellite loop shows the edge of the stratus deck approaching our far western counties, and could see some clearing in that area this evening. However, fog will quickly fill in and several of the CAMs show a fairly dense band from the Cooperstown area into the northern Red River Valley. A few of the models have the worst of the fog further west, and exactly where the line between fog and low clouds will be is highly uncertain. HREF has highest probabilities for less than a mile or even half a mile in visibility along and west of the Red River Valley, so kept the areas of fog mention there and patchy fog everywhere else. How many areas will be under a quarter of a mile is still uncertain, so will keep out any headlines for now. Will likely need a dense fog advisory somewhere in the region overnight. ...Rain Friday night and again Monday/Tuesday... Another quick moving shortwave coming through Friday night into Saturday morning will bring another round of light rain to the region. Probabilities of a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain is over 60 percent, but drops off quickly for over half an inch. Some weak instability of less than 500 J/kg of MU CAPE could bring a few claps of thunder, but nothing else impactful. A stronger system moving in Monday into Tuesday could bring a more interesting setup, with some ensemble members showing portions of our forecast area in the warm sector with machine learning having a low probability for severe. Others have the track of the low a little further south and more stratiform precip setting up. While chances of severe are not high, there is over a 70 percent chance for an inch of rain or more over portions of the forecast area, so another round of soaking rain seems likely and will continue to message. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 LIFR ceilings are developing across much of eastern ND and northwest MN, with IFR to MVFR visibility at times expected. VLIFR visibility (1/4sm) due to dense fog is more likely in the KDVL area of northeast ND where skies originally remained clear and better radiational conditions were in place during the evening hours. Fog should clear as low level winds increase to 10-15kt Friday morning, and IFR ceilings should eventually lift to MVFR. The persistent moist southerly flow pattern that has been in place in the lower levels will likely keep at least MVFR ceilings lingering into the afternoon and evening period Friday, with a medium chance for IFR ceilings to redevelop Friday evening or Friday night (better chances after the current TAF period). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DJR