Welch Village Ski Area Snow Report

570 FXUS63 KMPX 250817 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 317 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain chances return this weekend with Saturday offering the best chance for showers across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. - A frontal passage brings more widespread rain Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Low stratus clouds remain locked in across most of the forecast area, lasting through mid to late morning timeframe. Scattered to broken clouds will hold through the remainder of the day, with filtered sunshine. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle to upper 60s for most areas, areas that see more sunshine through the day could see temperatures around 70 degrees. High pressure aloft currently centered over the Dakotas will quickly translate east through the day as the next upper level system and associated trough axis races across Canada and Northern Plains. In response to said upper level system, low level flow will increase out of the south, advecting moisture across the region. Ensemble guidance shows precipitable water values 150-200 percent of normal overlaying the region Friday night into Saturday with DP temps in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. As a result, rain chances increase on Saturday with scattered to widespread showers. Shower activity will be more widespread across western MN, with lesser probabilities and coverage across eastern MN and western WI. Expected rainfall amounts will range from 0.25-0.50 inches across western MN and less than 0.25 inches across eastern MN and western WI. Forecast soundings show a sliver of CAPE within profiles across western MN, can`t rule out a rumble of thunder embedded within the shower activity. High temperatures on Saturday will trend cooler with highs in the low to middle 60s, middle to upper 60s across western/central WI. On Sunday, the aforementioned upper level system and associated moisture will quickly translate east. Upper level ridge axis will settle in it`s wake across the region with dry conditions expected throughout the day. High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s. Surface high pressure will settle in over the Great Lakes region. Being on the western periphery, southerly flow will remain in place, with DP temps remaining around 60 degrees. .NEXT WEEK... On Monday, south/southwesterly flow will remain locked in across the region ahead of the next upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures will warm a few degrees from Sunday, around 70 degrees areawide. With anomalous moisture in place, the next upper level shortwave and associated surface front will promote widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. As of now, there`s still a degree of uncertainty regarding how this system evolves. That said, it`s to difficult, with little forecaster confidence to determine exact rainfall totals. Looking at 00z deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites, guidance is painting greater than 50 percent chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of 24 hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting at 20-40 percent chance(low to medium confidence). The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday period. An upper level trough will move across the Desert Southwest before ejecting northeastward across the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. There still remains uncertainty regarding this system, and how far north the associated deep and anomalous moisture advects. That said, 20-40 percent PoPs remain in the forecast grids, highlighting Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 The outlook for the 06z TAF is continued IFR/MVFR with periods of LIFR possible mainly for the westernmost sites being AXN/RWF with a lower chance at MKT/STC, and next to no chance at MSP/RNH/EAU. Winds remain 120-150 at or below 7kts for most of the day, becoming VRB03kt by the end of the period. The IFR/LIFR visibility within the AXN/RWF TEMPO groups will likely end up being extended an extra few hours but the observations have remained intermittent enough to keep it out of the prevailing line for now. Gradual improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR is expected for the western sites, likewise MVFR to VFR and remaining VFR for the central/eastern sites. KMSP...Introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR CIGS for the first few hours of the TAF as obs will need to be monitored closely with IFR/MVFR CIGS just to the west of MSP. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. SUN...MVFR/-SHRA early, then MVFR to VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...TDH