West Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

477 FXUS61 KALY 240704 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded patchy fog, some locally dense near the major river valley from the Capital Region north. Lowered min temps tonight from the NBM values with the sfc high in control over southeast Canada. There continues to be a slight north/northwestward shift with the coastal low late Fri into the weekend, as it approaches Long Island and southeast New England with the most widespread showers Saturday into Monday now. The track and timing of the coastal low continues to show a lot of variability in the ensembles/medium range guidance pinpointing heavier rain shows and gusty winds keeping confidence low. Winds/winds gusts were increased late Fri through Sat by using a blended NBM/NBM90 approach. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued mainly dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures today into most of Friday. 2) Forecast confidence remains low on the exact track and timing of rainfall with a potential coastal low Friday through the weekend. There continues to be a low to moderate chance (40-60%) of wind gusts > 35 mph, especially for areas south and east of the Capital District. Hydro impacts are not expected from the rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A Frost Advisory remains up to 9 am for southeast Warren and Washington Counties for areas of frost forming as temps fall into the mid 30s. The strong anticyclone centered over southern Quebec has produced ideal radiational cooling conditions for lows to fall into the 30s and lower 40s. Some patchy to areas of locally dense fog have formed along the CT River Valley, Mohawk-Hudson Valley juncture and the Upper Hudson River Valley towards Lake George. The mist/fog should burn off quickly after shortly after sunrise. Another dry and cool day is expected with abundant sunshine with the strong surface high in control. Max temps were accepted close to the NBM highs with mid and upper 60s in the valleys and mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain which are still below normal. Some radiational cooling is expected tonight, but high clouds will begin to increase at night. Lows were lowered closer to a NBM/ADJMAV/CONSMOS blend with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s north and west of the Greater Capital Region and mainly lower to mid 40s to the south and east. Some patchy fog may form again in some of the river and sheltered valleys. Clouds increase on Friday, and PoPs were reduced to just a slight or low chance late in the day for the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and NW CT as they would be associated with an inverted sfc trough to developing oceanic cyclone well south and east of the Delmarva Region. KEY MESSAGE 2... The oceanic/coastal low makes slow progress lifting north/northwest in the western Atlantic Fri night through Sun. Several ensemble members, deterministic medium range solutions and AI have the storm approaching southeast New England and eastern Long Island Friday night into Saturday bringing periods of showers in the deformation zone or northwest quadrant of the potent low. The cyclone may then move over southeast New England and loop around going over or south of the Long Island for the 2nd half of the weekend with periods of rain and some gusty winds. Confidence remains high for this storm to bring rainfall, but subtle shifts in the track and timing are likely to continue due to the strong blocking high to the north keeping this system surpressed. In fact the latest EC/AI-EC has this storm only just east of the Mid Atlantic Region by Saturday morning and lifting north and backing westward south of Long Island and moving into NJ Sat night into Sunday. Our forecast leans closer to the northern most solutions of the GEFS/AI-GFS/GFS/CMC and some of the EC ensembles which is exhibited by the NBM. The timing and track issues keeps confidence low to moderate at best in terms of impacts from rainfall and wind. Bands of showers rotating around the wave are expected Sat-Sun across eastern NY and western New England. PWATs run above normal. Clouds will keep temps cooler than normal on Sat and possibly Sunday. The wave may sit and spin over southern New England or be just south of Long Island, while it meanders and loops around late Sat into Mon. In fact, scattered showers may persist into Monday now. Some drier weather may return by Tue. The probabilities for rainfall are greatest in the 60-80% range from the northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region and southern VT south and east Sat through Sun. Again, the track and evolution of the system may vary the timing of the rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms that could pop up on Sunday. The rainfall does not like problematic at this point with the recent dry antecedent conditions. The latest NBM 48-hr probs > 1" of rainfall for the period ending 8 am Mon are 30-50% along a northern/eastern Catskills, Greater Capital Region and southern VT axis south and east with the highest probs over NW CT. NBM probs >2" are only 20-25% for the same time frame for NW CT and less than 15% elsewhere. Some ponding of water may occur with any heavier showers/poor drainage flooding of low-lying area. WPC has expanded the Marginal Risk in the Day 3 ERO from Albany south and east. North/northeast winds increase on the west/northwest side of the storm Fri night through Sat night, as the horizontal sfc pressure gradient increases. The NBM probs > 35 mph wind gusts are mainly over the eastern Catskills, northern Taconics, Berkshires, NW CT and the mid Hudson Valley for the time period ending 2 am Sunday. These same areas excluding the mid Hudson River Valley for the period ending 2 am Sunday for wind gusts > 40 mph, the probs lower to 20-40% and fall below 15% for gusts>45 mph. Some foliated tree limbs could be downed, but the gusts at this point fall short of Wind Advisory criteria (46-57 mph), but will continue to be monitored. The winds should subside by Sunday into Sunday night. Overall, impacts look limited at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...A strong surface high centered over southern Quebec continues to bring clear skies and light to calm winds to KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. Ideal radiational cooling is occurring, as some MVFR/IFR mist has already formed at KGFL/KALB. Radiative mist/fog will continue prior to 12Z at these two sites with some reduction even to LIFR levels. VFR conditions are expected to continue at KPSF/KPOU. The radiative mist/fog should diminish between 12Z-14Z/Thu, and then expect VFR conditions the rest of the TAF cycle with the strong subsidence from ridge yielding mostly clear/clear skies with just a few-sct cirrus around. The winds will be light and variable at 4 KT or less to calm this morning. They will increase from the north/northeast to east at 7-12 KT with some gusts 15-20 KT in the late morning through the afternoon. The winds will become light to calm shortly before or just after 00Z/FRI. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...15