Whitetail Ridge snow report

604 FXUS61 KCTP 150655 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Lowered dewpoints this afternoon to account for mixing down of dry air aloft * Mentioned risk of smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota reducing air quality beginning tonight and sticking around through the end of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot temperatures and modest humidity will increase the risk of heat impacts this afternoon. 2) Smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota may reduce air quality beginning tonight and sticking around through the end of the week. 3) An unsettled weekend with rain and storms will kick off a cooling trend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot temperatures and modest humidity will increase the risk of heat impacts this afternoon. No change to heat headlines this afternoon. Max heat index peaks in the 100-104 range this afternoon for locations east of I-99 and along/south of I-80. Boundary layer mixing and noticeable WNW breeze favored lowering dewpoints a couple degrees this afternoon. Whereas the heat wave over Fourth of July had dewpoints in the middle 70s, dewpoints this afternoon will likely mix out into the mid 60s. It will certainly feel hot/humid, but not nearly as oppressive as a couple weeks ago. A weak cold front dropping down from the north through the day today will knock dewpoints down further, especially across the northern tier. This front may also initiate a few widely scattered thunderstorms, highest chance over eastern zones (SPC D1 SWO MRGL risk focused over eastern PA clips Schuylkill and Lebanon Co). Dry air and any reduction to insolation via wildfire smoke will be limiting factors for convection. But sufficient bulk shear (40-50+ kts) will be more than sufficient for a few severe downbursts IF any storms develop. Most likely timing for storms will be 4PM to 9PM. KEY MESSAGE 2: Smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota may reduce air quality beginning tonight and sticking around through the end of the week. HRRR-Smoke guidance suggests smoke from upstream wildfires in in Ontario and northern Minnesota may reduce air quality across much of Pennsylvania beginning tonight. The model shows sfc level smoke concentrations rising sharply behind the cold front this evening, and continuing to climb through the overnight into Thursday morning. Widespread smoke is then forecast to stick around through at least Friday with no real airmass change in sight. In addition to air quality impacts, marginal visibility restrictions will be possible where sfc smoke concentrations are highest. The smoke may also make for a bright red sunset/sunrise each night/morning through Saturday morning. Historically, smoke also has an appreciable impact on afternoon high temperatures, so we shaved a couple degrees off of expected highs both Thursday and Friday. At this time, the PA Department of Environmental Protection does not have plans to issue any Air Quality Alerts as they don`t anticipate critical 24-hour average particulate concentration thresholds to be reached, but they will continue to monitor smoke concentrations over the next couple days. This event should not reach the dangerous smoke levels of June 2023, but you can expect to smell smoke and experience a noticeable reduction in visibility over the next couple days. KEY MESSAGE 3: An unsettled weekend with rain and storms will kick off a cooling trend into next week. By Friday night, upper level ridging will begin to break down and transition to an upper trough by early next week. As this happens, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across PA in a northwesterly flow regime. Widespread showers and storms are expected this weekend, though some uncertainty remains with the exact timing and intensity of storms. SPC still has not highlighted any areas of severe weather this weekend, but future upgrades are possible (likely?) as confidence increases in the exact corridors of stronger storms. On the whole, the combination of upper troughing and stormy weather will lead to a decreasing temperature trend into next week. Ensemble guidance continues to latch onto the possibility of considerably cooler conditions by the middle of next week in the wake of a cold front. It is possible that some locations could see low temperatures in the 40s and 50s on a couple mornings. After this stretch of warmth, such a pattern shift in late July would be a welcome sight. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR flight conditions are expected through the daytime Wednesday as high clouds and wildfire smoke aloft pass overhead. Beginning around 00Z Thursday, concerns grow for visibility restrictions due to near-surface smoke moving in from Ontario & northern Minnesota Confidence remains high for LLWS of 35-40 kts up to around 1500-2000 ft overnight tonight, with LLWS unlikely after 12Z Wednesday. Cannot rule out an isolated SHRA/TSRA Wednesday afternoon, with the highest probability (~15%) being across east-central PA. Otherwise, we will see more of the same with hot and humid conditions and some wildfire smoke aloft producing hazy skies. After 00Z Thursday, visibility restrictions due to near-surface smoke become more likely due to wildfires occurring across Ontario & northern Minnesota. A blend of the HRRR/RRFS smoke products were used to determine smoke placement, with visibilities in the TAF kept at 6SM for now given uncertainty regarding how those wildfires will evolve today + what the downstream implications will be. Based on the HRRR/RRFS guidance, visibilities may drop to 2-4SM in areas where the smoke is most dense. Outlook... Thu-Fri AM...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog. Some reduced visibility possible from smoke, with an isolated late- day SHRA/TSRA possible. Fri PM-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday and Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high max temperatures for July 15th _______________________ SITE | RECORD/YEAR | ----------------------- MDT | 99/2024 | ----------------------- IPT | 103/1995 | ----------------------- AOO | 98/1995 | ----------------------- BFD | 88/2013 | ----------------------- STCP1 | 97/1887 | ----------------------- && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ019-026>028- 045-046-049>053-056>059. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ035-036-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Hahn KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Hahn DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Hahn AVIATION...Teare/Evanego CLIMATE...Banghoff/Hahn