Ski Cherokee Snow Report

357 FXUS61 KCTP 250628 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 228 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered dewpoints across east-central PA Saturday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Pleasant/dry pattern with comfortably low daytime humidity continues into the last weekend of July. 2) Turning more humid and unsettled into early next week with the best odds for storms Monday PM through Tuesday PM. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Pleasant/dry pattern with comfortably low daytime humidity continues into the last weekend of July. Nice summer evening outside, with just some high clouds and low humidity levels. Last year we went from a very humid July to low dewpoint air for most of August. Not likely to do this again, but at least for the time being the less humid and mainly dry weather should hold. More information below. Cloud cover will increase into tonight, but no rain is expected. Dry weather continues for the majority of CPA through Saturday with just a low chance of an isolated shower/t-storm along the western periphery of the Allegheny Mtns during the afternoon peak heating cycle. We adjusted dewpoints lower for Saturday afternoon over east central PA based on the hires model signal. KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid and unsettled into early next week with the best odds for storms Monday PM through Tuesday PM. Shortwave energy diving southeast around the prominent upper high centered over central and southern Plains will help to eventually carve out a closed upper low over the eastern Great Lakes by early next week. Expect a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday through Tuesday with peak POPs in the Monday PM-Tuesday PM window based on the latest ensemble guidance. There will likely be some level of severe and/or excessive rain risks to manage that are largely dependent on timing/upstream system evolution at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are virtually certain (> 90% probability) through 06Z Sunday at all airfields across central Pennsylvania outside of BFD/JST. Low-level cloud across the Laurels will likely expand overnight; however recent observations outline cloud decks generally between 3,000 to 5,000 ft AGL which will likely be some of the lowest cloud decks in the near-term. Some scattered shower development is expected this morning in close vicinity to JST; however, confidence remains low in any showers impacting the airfield through 18Z Saturday. Chances gradually expand northward and eastward late this afternoon and evening, with increased chances at BFD/JST in the 18Z-06Z timeframe for some showers but given the scattered nature, not confident enough to include mentions and/or restrictions at this time. If showers do form and go over BFD/JST in this timeframe, MVFR ceilings appear to be the most likely solution, generally between 2,000 and 3,000ft AGL for a one-to-two hour period. Outlook... Sun...VFR favored with a few showers/storms possible, mainly over western-central PA. Mon-Wed...Restrictions likely in showers/storms. && .CLIMATE... Cooler than average temperatures across the region led to multiple record low temperatures being broken for July 23rd and July 24th across central Pennsylvania. On July 23rd: * Altoona set a record low temperature of 47 degrees, breaking the previous record of 50 degrees set back in 1981. * Bradford tied a record low temperature of 38 degrees which was previously set in 1981. * Johnstown tied a record low temperature of 49 degrees which was previously set in 1983. On July 24th: * Altoona set a record low temperature of 47 degrees, breaking the previous record of 50 degrees set back in 1957. * Bradford set a record low temperature of 41 degrees, breaking the previous record of 44 degrees set back in 1993. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Martin AVIATION...Beaty CLIMATE...Beaty