Ski Cherokee Snow Report

512 FXUS61 KCTP 150818 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 418 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Dense Fog Advisory posted through 13Z today for 6 counties in South Central PA, including the Laurel Highlands. * A widespread, soaking rain with embedded late morning and afternoon thunderstorms is still on track for Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog early today in the valleys of South- Central PA and the Laurel Highlands. 2) Widespread rain will develop across the CWA Sunday morning and bring light to moderate amounts of one-quarter to three quarters of an inch. After a warm front moves into Central and Northern PA early Sunday afternoon, thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of this boundary bringing locally heavy rain in excess of one inch in just 20-30 minutes with the potential for localized flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of dense fog early today in the valleys of South-Central PA and the Laurel Highlands. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect in this part of the CWA until 13Z today. A ridge of surface high pressure extending into Scent PA early today was producing light eastern wind in the region of relatively higher sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 60s with PWAT values over 1.4 inches there (in comparison to PWAT values of only around 0.75 of an inch along the Ncent/NE PA border with New York. Vsbys have locked in between 0SM-1/4SM in the valleys to the west of I-81 and south of Route 22 in Scent PA and the Laurel Highlands. Fog is patchy in the valleys further North. KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread rain will develop across the CWA Sunday morning and bring light to moderate amounts of one-quarter to three quarters of an inch as the remnants of midwest TSRA/MCV moves east into the region. After a warm front moves into Central and Northern PA early Sunday afternoon, some breaks in the otherwise widespread, multi-layered cloud cover will lead to MU CAPE values climbing into the 1000-1500 J/KG range per the latest HREF. Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of this boundary bringing locally heavy rain in excess of one inch in just 20-30 minutes with the potential for localized flash flooding. ERO from WPC hydro forecasters has nearly all of the CWA (nrn tier = not yet) in the SLGT risk category for Sunday. Clouds will thicken up tonight with a several hour period of steady light to moderate rain overspreading the state from west east during the early to mid morning hours Sunday, ahead of a warm front. PWAT values will surge to 2.0+ inches across the part of the state near and to the south of Interstate 80 by late Sunday morning and stay there for the rest of the day. The warm front will lift into Central PA Sunday afternoon, before being followed closely by scattered thunderstorms with periods of torrential downpours in the afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes through. Basin "Average" rainfall amounts Sunday will vary from around one-half of an inch across the Northern Tier Counties of PA to between 1 and 2 inches across the Southern Half of the state. Any training thunderstorms could put down 3 inches of rain which would trigger localized flash flooding of poor drainage areas and some streams/creeks. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High moisture values (Precipitable Water Values in excess of 1.4 inches) were present in the vicinity of KJST and KAOO South and east to near the I-81 corridor in Scent PA. Clear skies and a very light easterly wind in this area was leading to widespread Dense Fog, which will persist until 12-13Z today and lead to near zero vsbys and VV003 or less at KJST and KAOO. other TAF sites should stay AOA 5SM and CIGS above 2000 feet early today, though brief restrictions are possible through 12Z at KUNV and KBFD. For the remainder of today and the first half of tonight, widespread VFR conditions with light wind will blanket all of the CWA as a ridge of surface high pressure slides across the eastern half of PA. Conditions will steadily lower to MVFR with periods of IFR very late tonight and Sunday. Outlook... Sun...Restrictions probable in showers/thunderstorms. Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm Monday. Wed...Afternoon showers or a TSRA with brief restrictions possible. Otherwise, VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ024>026- 033>035. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert DISCUSSION...Lambert AVIATION...Lambert