Windsor Park Nordic Centre Snow Report

946 FXUS63 KFGF 010423 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1123 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for thunderstorms returns mid to late this week. This includes potential for strong to severe storms, however, confidence remains low regarding details. - Late summer heat forecast to return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a well defined upper low in SK/MB, with its southern flank and dry slot over ND. This is contributing to gusty southwest winds, including 50 mph gusts in northeast ND this afternoon. This upper low migrates eastward Tuesday, keeping breezy winds in the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Drier, post-frontal air mass behind last night`s cold front will remain in place over our area Tuesday into Wednesday. Calm, cool, and likely mostly clear conditions in addition to recent rainfall will allow potential for fog Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Into mid week around Wednesday, upper ridging begins to build into the Northern Plains downstream of a longwave upper trough digging into the Pacific Coast. This will promote moisture return into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Wednesday and Thursday. This continues as upper ridging further builds into the Plains in response to the digging and non-progressive upper troughing in the West. This will several days of southwest flow aloft over our region allowing for continued and somewhat lengthy period of moisture and heat return through late week into the weekend. This will bring ingredients into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for potential strong to severe storms as well as late summer heat with potential for minor heat related impacts. Ensemble guidance suggests the upper trough and ridge wave packet breaks down into early next week, which typically would signal the end of heat and severe potential. However, there are notable difference between ensemble systems in how this breakdown evolves - thus confidence in the extended forecast is low. ...Gusty winds this afternoon... A tightened surface pressure gradient collocated with relatively deep mixing in northeast ND is allowing for southwest wind gusts 40-50 mph. This is expected to continue through the afternoon until around sunset when deep daytime mixing begins to cease. Wind gusts will rapidly dwindle, although breezy winds 10-15 mph are expected to continue through the overnight. While 40-50 mph gusts are not typically impactful for northeast ND, seasonal factors like full foliage on trees, as well as this area not experiencing these longer duration high of gusts in over a month or two will contribute to bring low impacts from gusty winds. A Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 7 PM for this area. ...Potential strong to severe storms mid to late this week... Starting late Wednesday into Thursday, several model guidance systems bring one or more shortwave impulses within the initial surge of southwest flow aloft as the upper ridge brings to build. This also houses increasing overall moisture that remains pooled in the southern half of the CONUS along with steepening lapse rates aloft sourced from the Central Rockies. Guidance brings low but sufficient parameter spacing with respect to instability and shear late Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. This lends some credence in strong to severe storms being more on the lower end of severity, as well as likelihood of storms being elevated bringing hail to the forefront of potential hazards. Overall, there are no glaring signals for significant severe weather despite there being several opportunities for ingredients for severe weather to come together mid to late this week. This is backed by ML/AI guidance highlighting our region late Wednesday through Saturday for severe potential. It is worth noting this pattern could result in locally heavy rain and potential for flash flooding given the longer duration of moisture flow and an upper pattern that is non-progressive potentially allowing for several shortwave impulses to traverse through our region. Confidence in this is low, however, as there are unknown mesoscale influences that are necessary for flash flooding yet to be correctly resolved by modeled guidance. ...Late summer-like heat this weekend... Ensemble guidance strongly suggests in strong upper ridging into the Upper Midwest this weekend. This will promote increasing temperatures aloft, as well as the migration and pooling of moisture near the surface. This will not only allow opportunity for 90s back into the forecast, but also high humidity. As of now, Friday and Saturday look to be the days where these two may align to bring heat indices well into the 90s, and perhaps into the low 100s (10 percent chance of occurring). While Saturday looks to be hottest within the forecast period, this could also extend into Sunday, although confidence is low in this. && .AVIATION /04Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 VFR/clear skies overnight with some high clouds skirting the SD/ND border and working east through the night. Winds 5-10kts overnight and 10-15kts from 15-23z with gusts up to 20kts during that midday period. Winds tomorrow night going light as high pressure settles in overhead. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...TT