Appalachian Ski Mtn. Snow Report

038 FXUS61 KRNK 240756 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 356 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast updated. No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A disturbance will bring occasional showers today, and widespread rain this evening. 2) Cool conditions will persist through Saturday, giving way to a warming trend starting Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A disturbance will bring occasional showers today, and widespread rain this evening. Starting the day with weak high pressure settled across the lower Mid-Atlantic, and a stationary front draped across the Carolinas. Light northeasterly winds continue to draw unseasonably cool moist air from New England, resulting in widespread low clouds this morning. Little change in the weather pattern will occur today, though a weak disturbance will pass along the Ohio River Valley during the afternoon, drawing moist air from the southeast atop the cooler air hugging the surface in overrunning style. As such, spotty showers will pass across the region this morning and afternoon, with more widespread rain moving across the lower Mid-Atlantic this evening. A few thunderstorms may develop with afternoon heating, but feel the cool air hugging the surface will strictly limit the potential for storms to become severe. Also noticing that abundant moisture remains just south of our area, which will be drawn northward across northwest North Carolina into the Southside area of Virginia as the disturbance approaches, with precipitable water rising to 2+ inches this evening. Winds today are forecasted to be predominantly from the northeast, a direction not ideal to produce upslope, high- efficiency rainfall. Regardless, will have to monitor rain gages in the upslope areas, such as along the Blue Ridge, as Doppler radar does tend to underestimate upslope rainfall totals when winds are generally from the Atlantic. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool conditions will persist through Saturday, giving way to a warming trend starting Sunday. Passage of a weak disturbance east tonight will nudge the front across the Carolinas a little further south into Saturday morning, with drier air arriving from the Great Lakes region. This will result in overall drier conditions across the lower Mid-Atlantic for Saturday and Sunday, with only disorganized, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing with afternoon heating. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool on Saturday before returning to near normal on Sunday, the start of a warming trend ahead of another cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. As deeper moisture pools south of this front, we can expect the return of thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday that will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in localized flash flooding. If the front can advance this far south, it will do so most likely on Wednesday night, and will have the potential of bringing another surge of dry Canadian air for the second half of the workweek. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northeasterly winds remain established this morning, carrying maritime air off the Atlantic. This has resulted in widespread stratus across the area that is gradually lowering toward the MVFR to IFR range. With early daytime heating, expect scattered improvements where ceilings will lift and/or scatter, however a disturbance passing along the Ohio River Valley this afternoon and evening will draw deeper moisture northward overtop the cooler northeasterly air hugging the surface. As such, showers and a few thunderstorms will move from west to east across the region beginning around 22Z through the overnight tonight. High confidence this will also bring a return of widespread low MVFR to IFR ceilings areawide, as well as visibilities in the 1SM to 4SM range due to rainfall. OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Drier air will arrive on Saturday as the disturbance exits to the east. This will allow for rainfall to return to a pattern of isolated to widely scattered coverage during the afternoons and evenings through the weekend, with MVFR/IFR ceilings Saturday night scattering with daytime heating on Sunday as winds shift from the west. A more typical summertime pattern of afternoon heating-driven showers and thunderstorms will return for Monday and Tuesday as another cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NF AVIATION...NF