Appalachian Ski Mtn. snow report

646 FXUS61 KRNK 040757 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Discussion updated. Headlines for heat remain the same. Confidence increasing for greater coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue with heat wave likely ending next week. Key Message 2: Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms starting today and going into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions continue with heat wave likely ending next week. It will be another hot day for the region. Once again, much of the area will have heat indices above 100 degrees east of the Blue Ridge and heat indices over 110 in the Piedmont. While additional record high temperatures are possible this afternoon, they will be racing against the clock to beat the thunderstorms later today. The storms will be hit or miss but may expand enough cloud cover to put a lid on high temperatures if the form earlier than anticipated. The mid-level ridge over the eastern CONUS will continue to break down allowing for more northwesterly flow and a small decrease in overall temperatures. Hot conditions are still possible on Sunday and Monday but temperatures will gradually decline towards normal averages. By Tuesday, highs will likely be in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Key Message 2: Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms starting today and going into next week. While the heat headlines continue, attention is growing towards thunderstorm development for the next several days including day. As mentioned in Key Message 1, scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon throughout the region, starting at around 2PM. DCAPE values are projected to be over 1000 J/kg resulting in favorable conditions for downdrafts and damaging wind gusts. The scattered nature of the storms means it will be hit or miss for location. The absence of wind shear means many storms will be pulse based and be relatively short lived. Even so, PWAT values of 1.5-2.0 inches suggest heavy rainfall with most of these storms which could lead to localized flooding. CAM models do not rule out the possibility of storms lingering into the night. The breakdown of the mid-level ridge will permit the passage of shortwaves and the stormy pattern will likely persist into next week. Sunday will be another good chance of showers and thunderstorms as a blob of vorticity to our west may be sent through the Mid-Atlantic. This vorticity will be forced through by a mid- level trough that will move eastward to our north. Severe weather is possible again due to the hazard of wind gusts in the southeast WV and VA counties. As we head into next week the chances for showers and thunderstorms continue on a nearly daily basis. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Aside from localized mountain valley fog before 14z/10AM, primarily at Lewisburg, expect VFR conditions through Saturday night. Caveat will be development of scattered showers and thunderstorms vicinity of the Blue Ridge with tempo impacts to terminals between 18Z/2PM and 22Z/6PM. With high pressure practically overhead, winds will be light and variable with speeds generally under 5 kts, but do lookout for rogue wind gusts and directional variability within the vicinity of thunderstorms. Extreme temperatures are expected during the afternoon creating high density altitude...conditions leading to longer takeoff rolls, decrease climb rates and weight restrictions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through next week. However, primary flight category is expected to be VFR with Tempo MVFR and some IFR due to thunderstorms and/or late night mountain valley fog. Temperatures are expected to return closer to normal by Monday, with Sunday being the last day where extreme temperatures are a concern. && .CLIMATE... All but Bluefield broke record highs Friday. More records may be broken through holiday weekend. For reference, the records are listed below along with the year the record occurred. 07/04 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 99/1999 74/2024 Lynchburg 98/1966 76/1902 Danville 99/1919 74/1999 Bluefield 92/1957 69/2024 Blacksburg 94/1966 78/1949 07/05 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 100/1999 76/2012 Lynchburg 98/2024 75/1900 Danville 103/1919 76/1926 Bluefield 93/1948 71/1969 Blacksburg 94/1930 69/1932 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022>024-032-033-043. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003-019-020. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...SH