Appalachian Ski Mtn. snow report

224 FXUS61 KRNK 140735 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 335 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A potential for thunderstorms capable of strong damaging winds this afternoon and evening. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures coming this week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Storms possible this afternoon and evening, some may be strong to severe. 2) Seasonable temperatures expected this coming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Storms possible this afternoon and evening, some may be strong to severe. A broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region into the Northeast. At the same time, an associated cold front will advance eastward across the Mid-Atlantic by late this evening. Still have a bit of uncertainty on storm evolution and coverage this afternoon and evening. The greatest limiting factor will be how much moisture can be advected back north into the region. A quick glance at early morning observations indicate deeper moisture remains south of the forecast along a stationary boundary draped across North Carolina. Dew points throughout the forecast area still in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. As southwest flow increases later today, should see some better moisture return, but hi-res guidance mostly favoring areas east of the mountains. This also seems to be the favored location for afternoon/evening storm development based purely on instability/kinematic overlap. Areas along and west of Blue Ridge will remain the most uncertain in terms of storm development and coverage due to the potential for limited boundary layer moisture and instability. Storms that do develop will have the potential for strong damaging winds, based on model sounding guidance indicating inverted-V profiles and DCAPE values possibly exceeding 1000 J/kg. KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonable temperatures expected this coming week. Behind the passage of a cold front tonight, temperatures will cool as a large scale troughing pattern sets up over the eastern half of the CONUS. This will bring seasonable temperatures to the region, along with drier dew points which will provide a relief from the humidity throughout most of the upcoming week. There is a potential for low temperatures in upper 40s by Tuesday morning across the mountains. A slight warm up on Friday occurs, but temperatures fall back to near normal for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Should be mostly VFR conditions today outside of any storms that are expected to develop throughout the region this afternoon/evening. Could have some lingering stratus across the mountains tonight, mainly impacting BLF/LWB. This could result in sub-VFR for those mentioned terminals after sunset tonight. Southwest winds will increase by late morning with some occasional gusts nearing 20kts. Should see winds relax again tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Expecting mostly VFR conditions through midweek except for patchy early morning fog each day. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG AVIATION...BMG