Appalachian Ski Mtn. Snow Report

812 FXUS61 KRNK 140653 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 253 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing chances for severe weather for today and Saturday. Temperatures increase to near Heat Advisory criteria levels in the 100-105 range across the Piedmont Sunday and Monday. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing chances for strong storms with heavy rain today and Saturday, with hot temperatures expected to end the weekend and start next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for strong storms with heavy rain today and Saturday, with hot temperatures expected to end the weekend and start next week. The large scale pattern continues to remain largely unchanged from earlier in the week, with upper level ridging remaining quasi-stationary to our southwest and upper trough over the northeast with clusters of storms with embedded vorticity tracks from the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic. A stronger mid level vort max looks to exit the Ohio valley today, and enter the region during peak heating. This mid level vort max looks to trigger storms along a stationary front that has generally remained in the vicinity of the Virginia and North Carolina border. This boundary looks to remain in this vicinity through the weekend, with additional storms forming along this boundary again on Saturday. Overall today, seep layer shear looks to remain around 20 knots. This should allow for multicellular clusters to develop across the region. The environment by this afternoon looks to have DCAPE values in the 700-1000 J/Kg range, with SBCAPE values in the 2000-2700 J/Kg range. These values will be enough to support strong to damaging wind gusts with stronger storms that develop along this boundary. Along with the severe weather potential, the environment continues to remain quite moist, with PWATS in the 1.5-1.8 inch range areawide. This can lead to substantial rainfall rates in the 3-5 inch per hour range, which will quickly lead to flash flooding of small streams, roadways, and urban areas if they remain over the same area for too long. The threat for an MCS impacting the area has reduced some, but continues to remain. CAM guidance does not show any MCS moving into the region; however, the upper level and mid level pattern continues to support it. The main difference compared to earlier in the week is the lack of deep layer shear present across the region. As the upper level ridge continues to slide east slowly, the influence of the ridge will inevitably reduce shear and any chances for MCS to impact the region. This threat will likely shift north of the region where the stronger mid and upper level jet is expected to lift to. Not much change in the forecast though looks less active Sunday with ridge building a little more. As this happens, temperatures will continue to rise, with near Heat Advisory criteria levels possible across the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina on Sunday and Monday. By Monday evening the ridge gets flattened with more shortwaves moving across the area once again. The flow being more westerly may keep storm coverage for east of the mountains somewhat limited. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the TAF period for all terminals. Through the remainder of the night, BLF, BCB, and LWB are expected to see MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs, with BLF and BCB already reporting restrictions. These restrictions should lift by the 12-14 UTC timeframe in the morning after sunrise. There are some showers near LWB tonight, and these are expected to remain in the vicinity through daybreak. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible during the afternoon hours across the region primarily north of the VA/NC border. If these showers or thunderstorms move in the vicinity of a terminal, MVFR to IFR restrictions can be expected as well as strong and erratic winds. Overall, winds will remain light at around 5-10 knots out of the west/northwest for all terminals through the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Pattern trend continues with daily chances for storms, though the best chance for organized storms will be today and Saturday. Otherwise more diurnal activity into next week. Mainly VFR outside of any storms and late night fog/stratus. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB