Appalachian Ski Mtn. snow report

930 FXUS61 KRNK 190611 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 211 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front is still expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance of showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. Heights continue to increase today so expecting another round of mid 90s east of the mountains with some of the higher elevations reaching low 90s. Scattered afternoon cumulus possible, but with ridging continuing to build, this will likely suppress any afternoon shower/storm potential. Heat will continue into Wednesday, but afternoon highs could be a few degrees lower across the mountains due to clouds and developing afternoon showers/storms. East of the mountains, likely to see another day with highs in the low/mid 90s. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, high pressure will begin to build across southern Canada as the cold front stalls across the region. Moist east/northeast flow will set in, which will keep temperatures cooler, along with a continued chance of showers. With stable east flow, thunderstorm potential appears to be low, with the highest chances remaining south of the forecast area. Cool wedge to persist into Friday, along with chance of rain. Mid- level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area. Temperatures will warm gradually into the beginning of next week as cool air wedge begins to break down. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall not looking overly likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period. Light winds expected through the morning, then increase to around 10 knots with periodic gusts 15-20 knots at all terminals this afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. Periods of sub- VFR conditions through the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible today. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 95 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 95 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 96 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/EB AVIATION...BMG CLIMATE...RCS