Appalachian Ski Mtn. Snow Report

575 FXUS61 KRNK 030647 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 247 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat advisory continues today for the VA Piedmont into Caswell County NC. Similar to Wednesday, strong to severe storms possible east of the mountains and mainly north of Highway 460 this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat Advisory in effect 11 AM to 8 PM for parts of the VA and NC Piedmont. 2) Multiple chance of showers and thunderstorms expected today through this weekend. Some strong/severe storms possible, especially Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat Advisory today for parts of the VA and NC piedmonts. An H5 ridge over the area begins to be suppressed and shift southwest with time over the next 24 hours. This allows temperatures to gradual moderate over our area. Temperatures stay well above normal for early September through Saturday. Heat indices of 100 to 108 are expected for the Piedmont and urban areas like Roanoke. The hottest readings will be farther east towards Buckingham County. Any afternoon cloud cover/debris and convection could lower heat index values. For today, a heat advisory remains in effect for parts of the VA and NC Piedmont today through this evening. Another heat advisory may be considered for parts of the Piedmont of VA and NC and urban areas like Roanoke for Friday. We will see a significant decrease in temperatures for the weekend, especially Sunday, as drier and cooler air follows the frontal passage. After a couple of cooler days, warmer temperatures are expected by Wednesday, with heat indices in the 90s. Some record temperatures may be tied or broken; see Climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chance of showers and thunderstorms expected today through this weekend. Some strong/severe storms possible, especially Friday and Saturday. Today, forcing for ascent will be strongest to our east, but Buckingham County VA towards Caswell County NC will see a chance of storms along with the southern Blue Ridge. A few of these could be strong to severe with damaging winds. Friday evening a cold front will be moving in from the north, moving south through the area during the day Saturday. Another significant mid level wave will cross the area during peak heating each day. These factors will provide additional focus for showers and storms. The frontal zone will coincide with a belt of 40-45 kt west- northwest mid-level flow and moderate instability, yielding sufficient vertical shear and fuel for multicells and somewhat organized line segments and/or bowing structures, and perhaps a supercell or two. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with any supercells that may evolve. There will be additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, but there is no significant support in the mid levels, so storms should be weak. Monday and Tuesday look dry with showers and thunderstorms returning for the western mountains for midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions this morning with periods of mountain valley fog vcnty of LWB and other river valleys where vsby as low as 1/4SM are possible between 07-14Z. Another opportunity for afternoon and evening thunderstorms is possible mainly affecting LYH and DAN late this afternoon/tonight as a convective complex moves in from the NNW. After 02Z, expect mostly VFR with periods of LIFR/IFR conditions again for LWB in the early morning hours. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A cold front backdoors into the area Friday into the weekend with chances for showers/storms. Aside from sub-VFR from the storms, terminals should be VFR outside of mountain valley fog in the early morning, especially at LWB and where it rains. A potential exists for sub-VFR Sunday with northeast flow, then again on VFR Monday. && .CLIMATE... Today 09/03/2026 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year KBLF 94 1953 75 1925 KDAN 99 1980 77 1931 KLYH 96 1953 72 1993 KROA 101 1930 73 2020 KRNK 96 1900 68 1941 Friday 09/04/2026 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year KBLF 93 1925 74 1925 KDAN 101 1925 74 1993 KLYH 99 1925 72 1970 KROA 99 1925 80 1930 KRNK 93 1925 68 1953 SATURDAY 09/05/2026 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year KBLF 95 1954 76 1925 KDAN 101 1954 73 2012 KLYH 99 1954 71 1979 KROA 101 1954 72 2019 KRNK 93 1925 70 1899 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH CLIMATE...SH