Batawa Snow Report

946 FXUS61 KBUF 220613 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 213 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few spotty showers possible across the Southern Tier through tonight, otherwise dry weather through the rest of the week, with below normal temps returning to near normal by Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A few spotty showers possible across the Southern Tier through tonight, otherwise dry weather through the rest of the week, with below normal temps returning to near normal by Saturday. Over the next few days the bulk of broad upper level troughing over eastern Canada will slowly drift eastward and out to sea...while a developing modest closed upper low drops southeastward from the Upper Midwest to the mid-Atlantic states. In between these two features...upper-level ridging will build across Ontario and Quebec. Meanwhile at the surface...large Canadian high pressure will remain draped from Ontario to Quebec and strengthen through Wednesday... then will remain in place through the end of the week while a surface low develops off the mid-Atlantic coastline in response to the approaching cutoff upper low and attendant DCVA/height falls aloft. Given the above pattern evolution...about the only chance of precipitation through the rest of the week will lie across the Southern Tier today and tonight...along the far northern fringes of an inverted trough and deeper moisture situated over the Ohio Valley. This could allow for a couple spotty light showers/sprinkles at times near the PA border through tonight/very early Wednesday... before the above mentioned closed low captures this system and draws it further away from our area during Wednesday. Otherwise the strong surface high and initially confluent flow aloft should keep our region dry through at least through Saturday...and possibly right through early next week should the aforementioned coastal system remain far enough to our east. Otherwise a persistent northeasterly to easterly low level flow across our region will result in daytime highs only slowly warming through the rest of the week as our initially cool airmass gradually modifies. Consequently...below normal highs ranging from the upper 50s (higher terrain) to the lower to mid 60s (lower elevations) today will only slowly climb back to near normal/slightly below normal levels in the mid 60s-lower 70s by Saturday. Meanwhile nighttime lows will remain largely below normal (mostly ranging through the 40s) through Friday night...with some upper 30s likely across the North Country each of the next few nights...and also not out of the question across the interior of the Southern Tier both Wednesday and Thursday nights. Coupled with mainly clear skies and light winds...such readings may allow for at least some isolated frost to develop across the North Country the next few nights... though the areal coverage of such for tonight currently looks to be far too low for any advisory. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through early this morning an extensive shield of cirrus will continue to slide off to our east...with dry weather and VFR conditions prevailing across the majority of the area. Exceptions to this will be in a swath of MVFR lake effect clouds draped across the northern Niagara Frontier including KIAG...and a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings across the Southern Tier which will lie on the northern fringes of an inverted trough/deeper moisture over the Ohio Valley. As we move through the daylight hours of today...increasing diurnal influences will help to break up the MVFR lake effect clouds over the northern Niagara Frontier...with general VFR conditions under cirrus/diurnal cumulus otherwise prevailing north of the Southern Tier. Across the Southern Tier...increasing low level moisture on the northern fringes of the above mentioned surface trough will lead to the development of MVFR ceilings...with these most likely near the PA border. Tonight a closed upper low will slide southeastward across the Ohio Valley...with this capturing the surface trough to our south and pulling it westward into Ohio. Consequently low level moisture across the Southern Tier should decrease and allow for clearing skies and a return to VFR...with nocturnal cooling then potentially supporting the development of some patchy MVFR/IFR valley fog where winds manage to lighten enough. Currently...expect any such fog to remain away from the KJHW terminal. Otherwise flight conditions will be predominantly VFR. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...Dry with predominantly VFR flight conditions expected through the period. The exception will be river/lake valley fog and local IFR potential each night/early morning where winds become light, and skies become clear to partly cloudy. && .MARINE... Expansive surface high pressure over Ontario Province will build across Quebec and strengthen through midweek...while weak surface troughing slides eastward across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. The resulting pressure gradient will maintain a moderate to fairly brisk flow across the Lower Great Lakes through midweek that will also gradually veer from northeasterly to easterly over time. This will allow for SCA-level conditions across the nearshore waters of both lakes with the exception of Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. SCAs will become more confined to areas from Hamlin Beach to the Niagara River by Wednesday as the flow veers more easterly. Any lingering SCA-level conditions should then subside Wednesday night as the surface ridge builds further southward and results in a weakening of the pressure gradient across our region...along with a commensurate lowering of winds and wave action. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NYZ001- 002. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for NYZ003- 004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043- 044. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJR AVIATION...JJR MARINE...HSK/JJR