Centennial Park Snow Report

607 FXUS61 KBUF 240526 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 126 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Day to day warming continues, with fair weather today, small chance for showers Saturday. 2) Unsettled weather returns Sunday and into the beginning of the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Day to day warming continues, with fair weather today, small chance for showers Saturday. A broad area of surface high pressure is centered across our region this morning, with light winds and Southern Tier valleys filling with fog. This feature will maintain fair weather with sunny skies today, with a partly to mostly sunny sky Saturday as a little mid level moisture sneaks northward from OH/PA. A spot shower or thunderstorm will be possible along a Lake Erie lake breeze circulation Saturday afternoon, but overall much of our region will remain dry. Highs in the lower 80s today will become mid 80s for Saturday. Dewpoints, however, will remain relatively cool through Saturday, with values only nearing 60F, resulting in a not so humid airmass. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather returns Sunday and into the beginning of the new work week. Several convective shortwave troughs cresting a Rockies/Plains ridge of high pressure combined with the deepening upper level low near Hudson Bay will return unsettled weather to our region by Sunday. Southerly flow behind the recently departed surface high pressure system will advect deeper moisture (increasing humidity) across the eastern Great Lakes with Pwat values reaching 1.5 inches or greater. Building instability across WNY will encourage convection through the day with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, especially along lake breeze boundaries. Additional shortwave troughs within a northwest flow will maintain showers and thunderstorms, especially during the peak heating of the day, across our region Monday and into middle portion of next week. It should be noted that there will be a good deal of time rain-free early next week, and the uneven coverage of convection will allow for some areas to be poured upon while other areas remain dry. For severe potential, northwest flow can be a direction that can be an active pattern for localized severe thunderstorm development across the Lower Great Lakes. For now, the core of the LLJ and greater 0-6km bulk shear magnitudes appears to be to our west and south, which may limit the severe potential for our region. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For the 06Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions are expected to continue through most if not all of the TAF cycle with a light wind courtesy of an area of surface high pressure over our region. Fog is developing within the Southern Tier river valleys this early morning. Light boundary layer winds may allow for this fog to expand up and over the KJHW airfield, however a quite dry airmass in place may slow or impede this expansion of fog. For now will continue with VCFG within the KJHW TAF this morning. A stronger top of the boundary layer wind flow tonight will limit the expansion of any valley fog across the KJHW airfield. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. A small chance for a shower or thunderstorm near KJHW in the afternoon. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... A broad area of high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes this morning will ease to New England by tomorrow, and maintain light winds and minimal waves on the Lakes through the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas