Christie Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

147 FXUS63 KLSX 090828 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 328 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An arriving cold front and increasing clouds and showers/ thunderstorms lead to uncertainty in heat index values today, but a Heat Advisory has been issued for southeastern MO and southwestern IL where confidence is highest in 105+ F values. - Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread at times this evening through Thursday morning. The strongest thunderstorms this evening may be capable of gusty to perhaps damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible overnight, but confidence is low in flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 A cold front, augmented by ongoing showers and thunderstorms across IA and northern MO, will advance slowly southward through the CWA today. Behind the front, showers and weakening thunderstorms are expected to reach northeastern MO and west-central IL around sunrise with showers potentially lingering well into the day across that area, holding temperatures in the upper 70s and low-80s F. Along and ahead of the front, stalling/slowing near the I-70 corridor around midday into early afternoon, anomalous 850-hPa temperatures support another day of high temperatures in the low to mid-90s F. There is still uncertainty on exact heat index values this afternoon due to increasing clouds and scattered showers and weak thunderstorms developing near a pre-frontal surface trough ahead of the front. However, with dewpoints increasing and pooled near the front, peak heat index values of 100 to 105 F will not be difficult to achieve, but HREF probabilities of 105+ F are highest in southeastern MO and southwestern IL where the hottest temperatures are forecast. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this part of the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage at some point this evening near or just north of the cold front as a modest nocturnal LLJ strengthens. With the strongest forcing, wind shear, and instability behind the font; the overall severe threat is limited with a tendency for any surface-based prefrontal thunderstorms to be weak and stronger thunderstorms behind the front being at least slightly elevated. Accounting for this, gusty winds are the main threat with thunderstorms this evening, but a damaging wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, especially if a bowing segment can materialize. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread at times, especially late tonight into Thursday morning as large-scale ascent increases with the arrival of an equatorward right jet entrance region and upper-level trough. CAMs indicate that thunderstorms will be most persistent near the I-70 and I-44 corridors. Several ingredients will be present for heavy rainfall including 2"+ PW (95th+ climatological percentile), deep warm cloud depths, and deep-layer flow nearly paralleling the slow-moving cold front. Through Thursday afternoon, HREF and REFS indicate a swath of 2 to highly localized 5" of rainfall somewhere near the I-70 and I- 44 corridors. Considering very dry antecedent soil conditions (3 to 4" 3-hour FFG) and the aforementioned rainfall falling over a broader period of time, confidence is low that high rainfall rates will be sustained enough to cause flash flooding. Instead, the the most likely scenario is for the majority of this rainfall to be beneficial with perhaps some minor flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will persist through Thursday morning, but it is not completely clear when precipitation will end with some variability in the speed of the upper-level trough. Most CAMs and model guidance have precipitation ending sometime Thursday afternoon and evening; however, there are some solutions with a much slower trough that have showers and a few thunderstorms lingering into Friday morning across southeastern MO and southwestern IL. With precipitation, clouds, and the cooler post-frontal airmass; much cooler high temperatures in the upper 70s to low-80s F are forecast on Thursday. For Friday, less precipitation and decreasing clouds will allow high temperatures to be warmer and in the 80s F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 Over the weekend into early next week, global model guidance is in agreement that quasi-zonal to slightly southwesterly upper-level flow will prevail over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley with a series of upper-level troughs grazing the region. This pattern will cause a front to waver between the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and Midwest that is reflected by an extended period of varying PoPs across the CWA. Ensemble model membership with measurable rainfall is highest Friday night into Saturday and again Monday night into Tuesday, but there is no single member that has precipitation during this entire period. So, although there will be opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, much of this time will be dry vs. wet. With the CWA residing near or south of the front through this period as well, above average high temperatures will vary mainly from the mid-80s to low-90s F. The NBM interquartile range quickly inflates to 15 F next Tuesday onward, spread from similar above average temperatures to temperatures closer to average if the front shifts south of the CWA. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 An outflow boundary will pass through KUIN at the start of the period, quickly veering winds to the north. Otherwise, the main concern overnight is LLWS at KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN as a low-level jet overspreads the area. A cold front will slowly advance southward today, initially threatening showers and weakening thunderstorms at KUIN that could linger well into the day. Winds will also veer toward northwesterly with its passage, reaching KCOU, KJEF, and St. Louis metro terminals around late morning or midday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind this front sometime this evening, increasing in coverage and continuing at times overnight. KCOU, KJEF, and St. Louis metro terminals have the highest probabilities for impacts which include MVFR flight conditions, possibly IFR flight conditions and gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms. Although the threat for thunderstorms will continue overnight, confidence at this time is relatively higher in the threat this evening. Winds outside of thunderstorms will generally be light. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ074-075-084-085-099. IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ069-070-074-079-101-102. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pfahler LONG TERM...Pfahler AVIATION...Pfahler