Christie Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

772 FXUS63 KLSX 300330 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1030 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today and Thursday. It will also be less humid than in recent days. - Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely Thursday night through Friday night. A chance for rain lingers Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Today: Surface high pressure is currently centered over Wisconsin and is slowly moving to the southeast. Across central/ eastern Missouri and western Illinois winds are out of the northeast with only some very shallow cumulus and thin high clouds across central Missouri. The surface high pressure will slowly move southeast through the day today and tonight as the longwave trough axis moves east. Dewpoints have also responded to the dry air slowly advecting in from the east this afternoon and are now in the lower to mid 60s. Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s today. Tonight through Thursday night: Surface high pressure will center over Illinois Thursday morning with surface winds veering from the southwest. By Thursday afternoon into evening, a piece of vorticity at 500 mb will advect east across the Dakotas. As this happens, the longwave trough axis will begin to buckle and elongate. Precipitation will start to move in late Thursday night, but given the broken off low over New England and the impending wave breaking at 250 mb the thinking is that most of Thursday night will be dry. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 By Friday, the aforementioned vorticity will begin to sweep southeast across Iowa with showers likely and a few thunderstorms. At 500 mb, the wave axis will be seasonably strong with heights falling to around 582 dam or ~ 2 SD anomalies below normal for this time of year. Simultaneously, at 250 mb a jet streak is forecast to round the base of the shortwave trough giving a slight enhancement to the upper level divergence. Regarding instability, the GFS continues to advertise MU cape values approaching 3800 J/kg Friday afternoon. Taking a look at the LREF though, MU CAPE values are advertised to be much more reasonable around 1600 J/kg. Surface to 6 km shear is forecast to be around 35 kt. Given the above, SPC has outlooked the region (mainly central Missouri) in a marginal risk. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat (mostly in the afternoon and early evening hours of Friday). Saturday and beyond is where model guidance starts to diverge. In particular, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF continue to oscillate back and forth on whether a closed low, or wave breaking, will occur from the Friday vorticity. Why does this matter? If a closed low forms, precipitation chances will likely hold on longer (into Sunday and possibly Monday). If a closed low doesn`t form (or is really weak and forms east of Missouri), the area will likely dry out sooner. Analyzing the latest WPC cluster analysis reveals that the GEFS and GEPS ensemble suites are most similar and advertise a more progressive solution (not a closed low forming). In fact, the EPS which has broad support for a closed low appears under dispersive. 50% of the EPS guidance is clustered together with only 15% of the GEPS and 3% of the GEFS. This under dispersion of the EPS has allowed us to continue to trend our thinking towards Sunday being more of a dry forecast with below normal temperatures. For the beginning of the next work week, near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will persist. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 High pressure dominates the sensible weather across the Mid- Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley tonight through tomorrow, resulting in dry and VFR conditions. Rain chances increase from west to east after 06Z Friday along an unusually strong upper- level trough for late July, which may result in flight restrictions developing across parts of the region. The best chances for this exist from central Missouri through west- central Illinois, including KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN. The St. Louis metropolitan terminals have a lower chance of these restrictions, but the chances are not zero that far south. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAH LONG TERM...BAH AVIATION...MRB