Christie Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

986 FXUS63 KLSX 200823 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog is expected through early this morning, mainly in parts of central Missouri. - Near to slightly below average temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and south-central Illinois are expected to shift out of the region over the next couple of hours. The latest RAP short-term guidance shows the low-level jet continuing to veer with time, with the stronger moisture convergence shifting into the lower Ohio Valley and out of our region. Mostly dry weather is then expected for the rest of the day, though did add isolated showers for portions of south- central Illinois this afternoon. This is where weak low-level convergence will remain with a midlevel shortwave trough moving across the mid-Mississippi Valley. In addition, guidance is showing at least modest low-level instability aided by steepening lapse rates. Temperatures today are expected to be a bit cool for the date once again due to weak to moderate low- level cold air advection and plenty of stratocumulus clouds throughout the day. Highs are forecast to top out in the low to mid 80s, which would be about 3-5 degrees below normal. The other concern is low stratus/fog. The GOES-19 nighttime microphysics RGB shows a hodge-podge of both stratus and fog. Some very patchy dense fog will probably continue through early this morning, mainly in central Missouri. This fog should dissipate by mid morning, though the fog/low stratus likely will turn into more of a broken stratocumulus deck across much of the area for the remainder of the day. Tonight looks like a repeat of this past Monday night/Tuesday morning with a surface ridge of high pressure sliding into the bi- state region. Light/variable winds along with a mostly clear sky is expected, allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s. A few spots in south-central Illinois and/or river valleys in east central and southeast Missouri may once again flirt with the upper 50s. Steam fog is possible on area rivers due to water-air temperature differences nearing 20 degrees in spots. A slight warmup is forecast on Friday due to increased sunshine and a shift more toward weak low-level warm air advection. Look for highs to be mainly in the mid to upper 80s, or right about average for mid/late August. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 (Friday Night - Saturday) Another northwest flow midlevel shortwave trough is expected to transverse the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. At the surface, a weak cold front will move through. A few showers/weak thunderstorms are possible, but by and large, this front should pass through without much fanfare. Surface convergence along the front in our area is very weak, and more concentrated across northwest Missouri as well as the southern Great Lakes (also where the better mid/upper level forcing will reside). Furthermore, much weaker instability is expected to reside in our area compared to the mid- Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest. Most locations probably will not observe any measurable rainfall, and those that do should not see anything significant (<0.25"). (Saturday Night - Wednesday) There is better consensus with the longwave trough digging into the Great Lakes this weekend. The GEFS has trended more toward the EPS, showing a more anomalous (500-hPa heights <10th percentile of climatology) trough, bringing in a more substantial shot of cooler and drier air into the mid-Mississippi Valley. For reference, the GEFS mean 850-hPa temperatures for Sunday evening are now about 4C cooler compared to 24 hours ago. The EPS remains cooler than the GEFS, showing 850-hPa temperature anomalies of -2 to -5C. Given the cooler trends, both high and low temperatures are several degrees cooler Sunday through Monday. Highs each day are most likely to be in the low 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. If the cooler EPS is correct, these temperatures still may be a few degrees too warm. Mostly dry weather is forecast through the end of the period. The only chance (20-30%) of rain comes Sunday night/Monday, mainly in central/southeast Missouri. There remains a signal for an MCS coming around the northeast periphery of the midlevel anticyclone across the southwest/south central Plains. This "ring of fire" pattern though looks more likely to impact areas to our west, with cooler and more stable air in our region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 A remnant mesoscale convective system is pushing eastward from Missouri to Illinois with thunderstorms currently impacting KUIN. This activity is expected to exit KUIN before 06z. Behind and to the south of this system, clearing is ongoing across central/east- central Missouri, which has allowed patchy fog/low stratus (<1kft) to begin forming. As clearing continues to expand eastward, the expansion of fog/low stratus is expected at all terminals. Guidance indicates the formation of a scattered to broken LIFR stratus deck around 200-500 ft AGL along with widespread and somewhat dense fog resulting in LIFR visibilites, potentially below airport minimums. This is forecasted to impact the region from roughly 06-12z with gradual clearing after sunrise resulting in improving cigs/vis with return to VFR expected at all terminals by the late morning or early afternoon at the latest. Surface winds will be calm and variable through the morning with northerly winds slowly veering to easterly by tomorrow afternoon. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gosselin LONG TERM...Gosselin AVIATION...Peine