Durango Mountain Resort snow report

000 FXUS65 KGJT 280510 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1110 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The radar is pretty active this afternoon, with shower and storm activity a bit more widespread than initially anticipated. This would be thanks to some extra moisture from the Southern Plains sneaking around the southern portion of the high. At the same time, a very, very subtle shortwave trough is moving through the westerly flow across the top of the ridge, providing some extra lift in combination with daytime heating. Coverage is best across the San Juans, Elks, West Elks, and Sawatch ranges, as well as over the Abajos and La Sals in eastern Utah. PWAT values are close to normal for this time of year, and surface levels are dry, so expect the main threats with any showers to be gusty winds rather than heavy rain. In areas not seeing shower activity, the afternoon will continue sunny and with highs running about 5 degrees above normal. Activity will diminish after sunset, with clearing skies leading to another seasonably cool night. Expect Wednesday to be very similar to today, with that moisture still in place and sunny skies allowing convection to fire off the terrain. Best coverage will be a bit more north and east tomorrow compared to today, but otherwise expect the same general threats with showers and storms. Temperatures will be much the same for the next day or so, with lows near normal and highs about 5 degrees above average. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Excitement arrives early on in the long term period as the closed Pacific low treks across the Northern Rockies on Thursday. Upper level flow across eastern Utah and western Colorado will initially be out of the west early in the day before flow aloft transitions to the southwest by the evening as the low sags further south. This will result in an uptick in moisture across the region as PWATs increase to 125 to 175% of normal. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the higher elevations, most notably along the Continental Divide and over areas north of I-70, beginning midday Thursday. Dynamic forcing will see shower activity linger into the overnight hours Thursday night with snow levels reaching the higher mountain peaks resulting in some light accumulations by Friday morning. The low`s center will drop into east-central Idaho on Friday with its base extending into the Four Corners region. Moisture will continue to increase as a result as PWATs reach 200% of normal for portions of the region. Additionally, the cold front associated with the low will progress from northeast Utah Friday afternoon southeast through the rest of the CWA Friday night. Widespread showers and storms will follow suit throughout the day. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms in addition to gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning. Light snow will also continue to accumulate on the higher mountain peaks of the western Colorado mountains as well as the Eastern Uintas. Nocturnal shower activity will once again linger into Saturday morning as the cold front exits the area. The upper level trough looks to linger overhead on Saturday so another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected. General guidance favors the low finally lifting to the northeast on Sunday. So while scattered storms will still linger given enough residual moisture, particularly along the Divide, there will be a noticeable downturn elsewhere as drier air begins to spread from the west. Forecast confidence decreases from Monday onwards as models struggle with how intensely the ridge will rebuild over the west coast, and if lower heights will linger overhead in the wake of the trough. Regardless, moisture will be slow to erode over at least the eastern portion of the CWA early in the week so expect isolated convection to fire over the Divide each afternoon. Look for one more day of above normal temperatures on Thursday given the mild west-southwest flow aloft. Daytime highs will cool to below normal beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend in response to increased clouds and showers. Values will return to near seasonal early in the week. Overnight lows on the other hand will trend at least 4 to 8 degrees above normal each night through the period given the lack of radiational cooling. Lows across the northern valleys will begin to approach freezing towards the start of the work week but that will be highly dependent on cloud cover. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1110 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as compared to the previous day. Instability showers/thunderstorms should develop in the late morning period and will be in the vicinity of KASE, KGUC, KTEX and KDRO throughout the afternoon and early evening. At each of these sites, there is the potential for a brief shower or thunderstorm, but probability was too low to include with this issuance. Consequently, latest forecast calls for VFR conditions and light and terrain driven winds. Outflow winds to 40 mph are possible at the TAF sites listed previously. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...NL