Madawaska Valley (Radcliffe Hills) snow report

441 FXUS61 KBUF 130701 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 301 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisory issued for all of western and north-central NY from 11 AM to 8 PM Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A brief period of dangerous heat Tuesday, with very warm, but less humid conditions today and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...A brief period of dangerous heat Tuesday, with still very warm, but less humid conditions today and Wednesday. Large dome of high pressure will expand east across much of the central CONUS today, where its center will strengthen to an impressive 600dam over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes region. The eastern periphery of this large ridge will then expand east into the central and lower Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday. In response, surface temperatures will rise above average today, however humidity levels will remain in check. This should keep heat indices mainly in the mid 80s to around 90 this afternoon. Tuesday will be the hottest day with 850mb temps rising into the the 22C-25C range (99th percentile for mid July), with the higher-end values across western NY. This will support highs in the low to mid 90s. When combined with rising humidity levels, heat index values are expected to be in the mid and upper 90s across much of western and north central NY, with low 100s possible across portions of the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region. For these reasons and in collaboration with surrounding offices, a Heat Advisory has been issued for all of western and north-central NY from 11 AM to 8 PM Tuesday. A fairly stout 30-40 knot LLJ will be located just 1-2 kft off the deck Tuesday afternoon, allowing a good portion of those stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. When combined with a tightening pressure gradient, expect to see frequent WSW to SW`erly gusts in the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts to 40 mph not out of the question northeast of Lake Erie and east through northeast of Lake Ontario. This will at least provide some natural relief to the heat, especially across those areas downwind of the lakes. That said, with lake surface temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s, it`s effects will be much less pronounced than earlier in the season. Very warm and humid conditions will remain into at least the first part of Wednesday, before an approaching mid level trough and surface cold front drop south out of eastern Canada ushering in cooler and drier air from north to south through the second half of the day. High temps will still range through the 80s by early Wednesday afternoon, but dropping humidity levels will keep heat indices about the same as the actual air temperature. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR flight conditions will prevail at all sites throughout the period. Light southerly winds early this morning will shift southwest today. Outlook... Tonight through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm. && .MARINE... Mainly light winds with waves generally less than one foot or less today. SW winds start to increase tonight, then freshen Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens well ahead of an approaching cold front, with a period of SCA conditions possible from Tuesday through early Wednesday morning, with the higher winds and waves expected on Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM