Mount Pakenham Snow Report

441 FXUS61 KBUF 160527 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 127 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A wavering frontal boundary will bring occasional showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday night. 2) A brief period of drier, cooler conditions is expected Thursday night through Friday night. 3) Unsettled pattern this weekend and into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A wavering frontal boundary will bring occasional showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday night. This morning a convective shortwave trough is bringing nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, with activity focused upon a cold frontal boundary to our west. Convection early this morning across Lake Erie and the Southern Tier may expand northward and clip the Buffalo metro region, before activity wanes with warming cloud tops across the Genesee Valley just past sunrise. A cold front will slip southward across our region this early afternoon, and while convection ahead of the front will be isolated and focused upon our southern zones, a noted wind shift will occur behind the front with a northerly wind component. This front will stall near the state line tonight, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible across the Southern Tier. Later in the night a weak surface low upon this frontal boundary will shift the front back northward as a warm front early Thursday morning. In a moisture rich environment with a deep warm cloud depth heavy rain is a possibility. Pwats become greater than 1.75 inches to around 2.00 inches and near the 90th percentile or even possible record values per Buffalo sounding climatology for this time of year, and a parallel mid level flow to the frontal boundary may encourage training storms, with a potential for localized ponding of water in heavier activity. There is still uncertainty with the axis of where the heavy rain could occur, whether near the state line, or farther northward. A surface low will pass through WNY Thursday with low level convergence generating additional showers and thunderstorms until a cold front slices across our region Thursday afternoon, bringing an end to convection. The timing of convection, generally in the morning or overnight, combined with weak to modest instability will lend to a low severe threat, though the moisture rich environment could pose a hydrologic issue with heavier storms, potentially passing over the same areas Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief period of drier, cooler conditions is expected Thursday night through Friday night. Surface high pressure will bring fair, dry weather Thursday night through Friday night with dendritic river valley fog likely across the Southern Tier and Black River valleys. It may even become cold enough Friday night, that if winds become calm patches of frost will be possible in the traditionally colder areas of the inland North Country. KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled pattern this weekend and into the beginning of next week. An unsettled pattern emerges Saturday as a warm front lifts back northward across our region as surface high pressure exits to the east. Several additional shortwave troughs will ripple across our region through the weekend and into the beginning of next week maintaining chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Ensembles data from the GEFS, GEPS and ENS depict Saturday night into Sunday morning with the greatest chances for precipitation, this as a weak surface low expands northeastward from the Ohio Valley along with developing weak instability. Several additional shortwave troughs and the eventual passage of an open wave trough (currently featured as a closed low over the PACNW) will maintain chances for showers through the first half of the new work week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS, general VFR flight conditions are found...but upstream convection over the western end of Lake Erie will be bearing down upon the western TAF sites...first near KJHW and later nearing KBUF and KIAG. This activity, along a cold front, will weaken just past sunrise as warming cloud tops aloft occur. The cold front will slip southward across the TAF region this early afternoon...with perhaps an isolated shower across southern zones, including KJHW. A noted wind shift will occur behind the front with southwesterly winds becoming northwest to northerly. VFR flight conditions behind the front late this afternoon and through the evening hours. This front will lift back northward as a warm front late tonight. Nocturnal convection is again expected after 06Z, possibly near KJHW and KBUF/KIAG. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with placement of storms...but within a moisture rich environment any storm has the potential to bring IFR or lower visibility. Outlook... Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely at times along with a chance of a few thunderstorms. Friday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR. Saturday...VFR to start, with a chance for non-VFR in rain late Saturday into Saturday night. Sunday...Non-VFR possible in rain, especially farther south. && .MARINE... A cold front will pass across the eastern Great Lakes today, with a noted wind shift...from southwesterly this morning to northwest to northerly this afternoon and into tonight. Given the weak front, winds are not expected to increase much behind the front. This front will lift back northward, with northeast winds backing to northwesterly as a surface low tracks across WNY. Behind the surface low, freshening northwesterly winds over the Lower Great Lakes will bring the next chance for at least near small craft advisory conditions, starting late Thursday night and through Friday. This elevated winds and waves will be short-lived as surface high pressure will ridge southward across the Lakes by Friday night, bringing a much lighter wind flow. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas