Mount Pakenham snow report

433 FXUS61 KBUF 190701 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 301 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat continues today. 2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). 3) Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat continues today. Mid and upper level heights will start to fall today as the mid and upper level ridge axis slides east of the area. NBM max temperature output continues to be too warm. Looking at Monday`s high temperatures, NBM forecast highs averaged 3-5 degrees F too warm. NBM again looks too warm today. In fact, NBM high temperature output is right near the top of the chart, nearing the 90th percentile amongst all other guidance. With that in mind and in coordination with surrounding offices as has been done over the past several days, daytime highs were lowered a couple to few degrees again today. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid and upper 80s, with a run at 90 again for those traditionally warmer locations, while it will remain a bit cooler along and closer to the lakeshores. Winds will continue to ramp up through the day with gusts 20-30 mph areawide this afternoon and up to 35 mph, or even a few gusts to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie, especially a bit further from the lake away from the cool dome over and closer to the lakeshore. A few scattered showers and storms will be possible during the peak heating hours this afternoon, and would mainly be confined to areas along and inland of any lake breeze circulations. Some gusty winds are possible with a stronger storm or two, however overall severe potential through this afternoon remains low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). Confidence for a few strong to severe storms continues to moderate for late today through the early overnight hours just ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. CAPE values of 1000- 2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening) with 25-35 knots of 0- 6km shear will foster the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the greatest threat. Local BUFKIT soundings continue to advertise "fat" CAPE profiles, which supports stronger updraft potential, indicating the possibility for large hail as well. Finally, 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 (300-400 m^2/s^2 far western NY) support the chance for an isolated tornado or two. SPC has all of western and northcentral NY outlined in a Slight Risk for scattered severe storms during this period. The best window for severe storms will be 6-7 PM this evening through 1-2 AM tonight. With that timing comes the gradual loss of diurnal heating heading through the evening. This leads to some uncertainty as to whether or not the line can maintain its` intensity, especially by later in the evening. Current thinking is the line will maintain intensity as it nears or enters far western NY early this evening, then gradually weakens as it heads further east into our area as heating wanes. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. A large area of high pressure will build into our region in the wake of the cold frontal passage, bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler airmass back in across the area for the middle and later half of the week. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the holiday weekend with mainly 60s across the area, however an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring unsettled weather back into our region for at least a portion of this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found, and these conditions will be predominate through the TAF cycle. There will be a few exceptions. A consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots off the deck will bring limited LLWS concerns, as well as gusty winds later this morning through the afternoon, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach 30 to 35 knots. With a wealth of instability, there may be an inland lake breeze shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. The main concern during this TAF period will come in the final six hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into far western NY around 00Z this evening ahead of a strong cold front. A few storms will have the potential to produce strong winds and large hail. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger storms. Widespread IFR/MVFR is then expected for the second half of tonight along and just behind the cold front. Outlook... Wednesday...Improving to VFR. Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system brings rain to the region. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to gradually tighten through today. Winds will increase further this afternoon ahead of the aforementioned cold front, supporting winds and waves worthy of Small Craft Advisory criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by this afternoon, before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario late tonight through Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage this evening into tonight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing locally higher winds and waves, with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...EAJ/JM