Mount Pakenham Snow Report

927 FXUS61 KBUF 050638 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 238 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer and increasing humidity today, with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. 2) The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday and Friday. Any stronger storms may produce locally heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Warmer and increasing humidity today, with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Any river valley fog that does form overnight will dissipate quickly after sunrise this morning. After that, we should see temperatures rapidly warm as we march through the morning hours. Expect a range of 80s across the region, with a few spots even touching 90F in the Genesee Valley during peak heating. We will also see an increase in humidity levels, this as moisture gets fed up around the western periphery of the Bermuda high. The combination of warming temps and increasing moisture will place heat indexes in the upper 80s to low 90s in the warmest spots this afternoon. With increasing moisture we could also see a few afternoon-eve showers and thunderstorms. Given PW values ramping up to 1.5-1.7 inches any storms that do form could produce locally heavy down pours. The best chance to see a storm will be across the western Southern Tier and Genesee Valley, with lesser chances for the eastern Lake Ontario region. A few showers may linger into this evening and tonight but should weaken with the loss of daytime heating. Key Message 2...The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday and Friday. Any stronger storms may produce locally heavy downpours. A shortwave trough and approaching front may bring better coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with another round on Friday. Guidance shows MLCAPE values of +1500 J/kg Thursday but relatively weak shear values (20-30 knots) which `may` limit the severe weather potential. That said...the main threat at this point appears to be localized heavy rainfall. WPC currently has placed all of New York in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A ridge of surface high pressure will continue to gradually exit east into New England through this evening, supporting predominately fair weather and VFR conditions. This being said, expect light variable surface winds into daybreak today before becoming south/southwesterly to around 5 to 10 knots throughout the rest of the day. Lake breezes are expected to develop this afternoon impacting KIAG, KBUF, KROC and KART with both stronger winds, and development of showers and thunderstorms along the convergence zone across the Niagara Escarpment this afternoon (19Z today through 00Z Thursday). Otherwise, some localized and shallow steam fog will develop early this morning mainly across the river valleys of the western Southern Tier. Winds around 10 to 15 knots at about 1kft to 2kft AGL should keep this fog shallow and prevent it from impacting KJHW. Any fog that does develop should dissipate within a few hours of daybreak. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Sunday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are expected, especially each afternoon through early evening. && .MARINE... An approach front and trough will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms beggining today through the rest of the week. Otherwise...light wind flow across the Lower Lakes will support minimal wave action through Friday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...AR