Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

631 FXAK68 PAFC 090058 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 458 PM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... A upper-level trough is driving southeast over Southcentral this afternoon, promoting the widespread continuous rainfall from Anchorage up the Susitna Valley and into the Copper River Basin. Gusty southerly gap winds are still holding on through the Copper Basin and along parts of the Turnagain Arm and Anchorage area, but they should trend down quickly as the incoming trough to our west erodes the coastal pressure gradient. In addition to the showers, there is the chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two (around a 30% chance) across parts of the northern Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su Valleys, and perhaps even Anchorage this afternoon, with the likelihood of these diminishing with the rain potential later this evening. This evening, westerly winds will increase into Kachemak Bay, rising the sea-state in the Outer Bay. This does not coincide with a high tide cycle so significant coastal erosion impacts are not expected. Looking ahead, the pattern will reset once again to something more akin to summer than to fall. By tonight, the main trough moving past us from Southwest will dip southeast into the Gulf as a strong ridge begins to build back into place across the Bering Sea and Southwest. This will put Southcentral back into a zone of brisk northwesterly flow aloft, supporting gusty offshore gap winds out of the typical valleys and fjords along the Gulf Coast starting late tonight into early Wednesday. Lingering showers will clear out overnight from west to east along with some of the cloud cover in place as drier air works in from the north. Temperatures will rebound back into the 60s for most lower elevations for Wednesday afternoon, especially where offshore winds and downslope warming in the lee of the mountains continues along the coast for spots like Whittier and Seward. Little in the way of significant meteorological impacts expected through the latter portion of the week with the shift towards drier and warmer weather. -CL && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today, Tuesday through Friday afternoon)... Key Messages: * Showers continue across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula today before gradually diminishing tonight as the upper low exits east. * A building ridge brings quieter conditions Wednesday, while a strong front moves into the western Bering and Aleutians. * Elevated water levels are expected along the Kuskokwim River and Kuskokwim Delta coast Thursday and Friday. High river levels combined with storm surge may produce bankfull conditions or minor flooding near Tuntutuliak, while strong onshore winds could produce coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding along the Delta Coast. * The strongest winds with the approaching system remain focused over the Bering and Aleutians as the front encounters a resistant ridge over Southwest Alaska. Discussion: For the remainder of this afternoon, the vertically stacked low continues to move east from Bristol Bay toward Southcentral Alaska. Scattered showers remain across portions of Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, with precipitation becoming increasingly focused along the western Alaska Range as westerly flow increases. An isolated lighting strike remains possible north of King Salmon, though limited instability will keep the threat low. Showers and winds gradually diminish this evening as the low continues east. A pronounced pattern change begins tonight into Wednesday as upper-level ridging builds across the Bering and expands east across Southwest Alaska. This will promote generally quieter and drier conditions across Southwest and the eastern Aleutians Wednesday, although areas of low clouds and fog will remain possible beneath the ridge. Meanwhile, a deep low tracking from Kamchatka toward eastern Siberia sends a strong front into the western Bering and western Aleutians. Increasing southerly winds and rain spread into the western Aleutians Wednesday and Wednesday night. The ridge remains rather stout across Southwest Alaska Thursday while the Bering front presses slowly eastward. Guidance continues to favor the ridge resisting the eastward progression of the front, keeping the strongest winds primarily across the western and central Bering. Nevertheless, periods of small-craft to gale- force winds and rain will accompany the front as it advances across the Aleutians and toward the Pribilof Islands. By Thursday night into Friday, the upper ridge begins to shift east as the front makes additional progress toward the eastern Bering and Southwest coast. Southwesterly winds increase along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, with rain spreading into western portions of Southwest Alaska. The combination of high water moving down the Kuskokwim River and storm surge moving upriver could result in bankfull conditions or minor flooding near Tuntutuliak during high tide Thursday and Friday. Along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, strong onshore winds could also result in coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding from Kongiganak northward through Toksook Bay and Tununak. A Hydrologic Outlook has been issued for these concerns. The front should continue to weaken as it encounters the ridge, with uncertainty remaining in exactly how quickly precipitation and stronger winds progress inland through Friday afternoon. LM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The low pressure system that is set to bring widespread gusty winds and rainfall across western Alaska this week will continue in its eastward track into the Beaufort Sea through this weekend. Its associated frontal system significantly weakens as it moves inland across interior Southwest Alaska with the strong upper ridge and drier conditions lingering across the Gulf and Southcentral for Saturday. Despite the weaker, more zonal flow, the pattern remains active through the weekend as an additional shortwave in the Bering quickly moves inland and across Southern Alaska. Despite models varying on the exact strength and timing, this system is generally expected to bring the next round of rainfall across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska Saturday. This system quickly shifts east and brings the potential for rainfall across much of Southcentral by late Saturday into Sunday. Despite increasing model spread heading into next week, confidence continues to increase for the pattern to once again become more amplified by the end of the weekend into early next week. The next shortwave emerges off of Kamchatka and enters the western Bering where it is expected to interact and phase with energy lifting north out of the Pacific. As a result, the next round of potentially strong southerly winds and heavy rainfall will be possible across the Aleutian Chain beginning Sunday through the early part of next week as a strengthening low moves into the southern Bering. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over the North Pacific and southern Gulf strengthens across the southern Mainland through early next week, bringing a period of drier weather. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday. However, lingering showers may allow for MVFR ceilings at times, especially between 00z and 04z as the upper-level trough responsible for the shower activity moves from the Susitna Valley into the Copper River Basin. Northwesterly winds at less than 10 kt this evening will diminish tonight with light and variable winds through mid-morning Wednesday. By late Wednesday morning, expect light northwesterly winds to redevelop. There is a chance (20%) for patchy fog to develop around the terminal by early Wednesday morning, especially if any lingering low cloud cover near the terminal diminishes after midnight and radiational cooling allows for colder overnight temperatures. -TM && $$