Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

645 FXAK68 PAFC 090406 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 706 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Key Messages: * Impactful storm system set to affect Southcentral Alaska Monday into Tuesday * Multiple Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across Southcentral from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A strong low continues to move toward the Southern Kenai Peninsula / Kodiak Island Region. This low will bring snow, freezing rain and rain to Southcentral through the next 48 hours. Initially, snow begins on the Eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula, City of Kodiak and Prince William Sound coast then, as warmer air arrives early Tuesday morning, this precipitation transitions to freezing rain and rain. For inland locations though, cooler air remains in place longer resulting in an afternoon snowfall start time for Western Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and the Matanuska Valley. Timing variations of a switch from snow to freezing rain and rain exist in throughout these areas Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon though the highest elevations have the greatest chance of prolonged period of snow before this precipitation change. The greatest chance for frozen precipitation is Tuesday morning as warm air slowly works its way to the surface. A prolonged period of northeast winds from the Matanuska Valley will keep colder air over the Glenn Highway south to Anchorage late Tuesday morning, thus slowing the warm air`s progression. Easterly winds out of Whittier and Eastern Turnagain Arm will also be gusty through Tuesday afternoon. Northerly winds out of the Copper River Basin coupled with steady snowfall and gusty winds are expected at Thompson Pass and points northward to Tonsina. Warmer air moves into the region Tuesday morning changing the wind direction to come from the south and the precipitation to freezing rain then rain. The greatest snowfall totals and ice accretion amounts will be from Thompson Pass to Tonsina. As the storm winds down Wednesday across Southcentral, gusty winds diminish and steady precipitation tapers to showers. Waves of moisture will continue across the coast of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound though additional weak shortwaves move northeastward. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Steady, northeasterly flow across the Bering continues this evening with a lack of significant pressure systems in the area. A widespread low-to-mid level stratus deck continues to blanket Southwest Alaska and the Bering. While Southwest Alaska is expected to remain dry, rain/snow showers are widespread over the Bering with cool air flowing in over the Sea. Chances for showers across the western Aleutians mainly falling as rain or rain/snow mix increase for today as a weak low tracks east in the North Pacific south of the Aleutian Chain. Snow showers over the Pribilofs this afternoon have diminished, and local areas of fog have lifted. This generally weak and showery pattern is expected to persist through Tuesday. By late Tuesday, a gale-force front associated with a North Pacific low lifts north towards the western Aleutians. This system is expected to bring widespread gusty winds and precipitation likely in the form of rain from the western Aleutians to Adak and Atka Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with confidence increasing for a period of gale-force winds for Adak and Atka. Confidence has increased that the low would stay south of the Chain, and shift eastward along the southern side of the Aleutians through midweek. Gusty, southeasterly winds will sweep the Chain as the low moves through, reaching Unalaska by Wednesday afternoon, but periods of rain and gusty winds are not expected to persist longer than 6 hours. Stay tuned for any updates as it looks like this will break our temporary quiet weather pattern. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska. Tuesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over the Aleutians accompany this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska sees light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak Island with inland areas remaining drier due to weak lows and waves over the region. Thursday sees the low move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska while the back end of the low allows for continued winds and rain/snow over the Aleutians and AKPEN. Friday has the low continue eastward, approaching the Alexander Archipelago. Rain/snow should clear out for much of Southcentral Alaska. Gap winds continue around the waters of Kodiak Island. A ridge builds over the Bering, leading to drier and calmer conditions over much of Southwest Alaska. However, northerly flow allows for gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas. Also, another low moves into the Shemya area from the west, bringing another round of gusty winds and rainfall. Saturday sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for the low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the Aleutians. Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians. The track of this low is uncertain at this point, so more or less rains and wind is possible depending on the true track of the low. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light north winds will become stronger and gusty by Monday morning, with gusts to around 20 kts or so likely to continue through Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance (20-30%) for light snow to move into the terminal near the end of the TAF period on Monday afternoon. -AS && $$