Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

400 FXAK68 PAFC 290010 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 410 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... This afternoon has been mostly quiet across Southcentral Alaska with mostly to partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. This will be short lived, however, as a shortwave trough is progged to dig southeastward from the Interior tonight and into Tuesday morning. Increased cloud cover ahead of this feature will only allow temperatures to slowly cool tonight and most valley and lower elevation areas outside of the Copper River Basin are on track to see low temperatures 2 to 4 degrees F warmer than what was observed this morning. Along with precipitation chances increasing from Anchorage to the Susitna Valley, cold air advection working in aloft with this wave will lower snow levels to as low as 1800 to 2000 feet for the higher terrain of the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys, which will support a quick round of lower elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow before the wave lifts over the Copper River Basin. Gap winds up to small craft continue to gust around Kodiak Island as the remnants of Dujuan move east through the Gulf. Winds slowly diminish through mid-week as these final remnants dissipate. For Wednesday, a longwave trough will move over the area with a quasi-stationary surface low developing south of Seward. Weak lift and weak winds aloft should help to bring steady precipitation to the Sound and the population centers from the southern Matanuska and Susitna Valleys and southward down into the Kenai Peninsula. Even colder air will wrap in around the low bringing 850 mb temperatures down to a range of -2 to -5 C depending on the model. This would yield steady snow for areas like Thompson Pass and even South Fork Eagle River and portions of the upper Hillside. The NAM is a significant cold outlier and drops snow as low as 800 ft, but we will continue to watch the progression of temperatures aloft as we get closer in time. Overall confidence is moderate (40-60%) that some of the upper elevations of Anchorage and Eagle River will see some snow on Wednesday. Though winds will remain sub-small craft, they will be elevated over gap regions around Kodiak Island as this trough passes through. -AM/JAR && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... Key Messages: * Colder temperatures move into Southwest Alaska throughout the week. * A front brings rain and small-force winds in the western Aleutians starting Tuesday afternoon, spreading eastward on Wednesday. Discussion: An active pattern continues across the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska as a series of upper-level lows and shortwaves move across the region. A vertically stacked low is currently positioned over the western Gulf. Cyclonic flow associated with this feature has maintained showers across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen), with much of Southwest having cleared out. Some showers may linger in the Kilbuck Mountains through this evening. Breezy northwest winds continue in the eastern Bering and AKPen, especially through favorable gaps. The vertically stacked low continues to move east in the Gulf. With less support from cyclonic flow, any lingering showers in the AKPen should taper off by tomorrow morning. While the low in the Gulf continues to move away, another trough digs southward across western Alaska and the Bering Sea on Tuesday. This will allow a colder air mass to spread into Southwest Alaska, with temperatures trending noticeable cooler compared with recent days. Daytime temperatures will struggle to warm past the low 40s for Southwest and the mid 40s for the AKPen, while overnight temperatures become increasingly chilly throughout the week, especially across the interior portions of Southwest Alaska. Widespread low temperatures in the low 30s are expected for Southwest tonight, dropping to the upper 20s by tomorrow night. A weak surface low develops in the northern Bering tonight and moves through the eastern Bering Tuesday. This looks to bring some scattered showers across the Bering to the Pribilofs. Some isolated showers may reach the Southwest Coast, otherwise Tuesday looks to be dry for Southwest. This weak low moves towards the AKPen and eastern Aleutians Tuesday evening. Chances for light rain increase for places south of King Salmon. This system weakens as it moves into the AKPen on Wednesday. Chances of precipitation decrease throughout the day as showers become more isolated. The trough with this system will allow the cooler pattern to persist over western Alaska and the Bering, especially as more cold air is pulled southward. Overnight lows Wednesday night look to be cooler than earlier in the week, with high chances many locations across Southwest drop to the upper 20s, with inland locations down to the mid 20s. For the AKPen, cloud cover from the next Bering system should help temperatures stay above freezing. Farther west, the Aleutians currently sit underneath a weak ridge which has resulted in relatively quiet conditions. A front from a Kamchatka low moves into the western Aleutians Tuesday afternoon and pushes this ridge east. This front looks to stall Wednesday morning, though there is medium confidence on exact positioning between the western Aleutian Chain and the Southwest Bering. Nonetheless, showers and southeasterly to easterly small-craft force winds are expected to accompany the front, especially in the western Aleutians. The low eventually becomes elongated and catches up to the front Wednesday night. Higher chances for precipitation spread to the eastern Aleutians and eventually to the Southern AKPen on Thursday as the low continues east. The area of small- craft force winds also increases across the Aleutians and Bering Wednesday- Thursday. - PA && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... An active weather pattern will continue as we make our way into October. A cold upper level trough over the Interior on Friday will begin to move out of the region for the weekend. The departure of this low will bring a slight warming trend through the weekend. There are signs of slight ridging over Southcentral for Friday, which will be the best chance to see some sun. This will be short lived since a Gulf low is expected to bring rain and wind for the weekend. Looking at integrated vapor transport from the GFS, the values are low, so the low is not expected to generate a notable amount of precipitation. Using the GEFS member spread, the pressure gradient is nothing note worthy. No significant winds are expected at this time Friday through Monday. Another low from Kamchatka comes into the Bering Sea, then tracks over the Aleutian Chain through the weekend. There is growing model agreement of the low reaching peak intensity before going through the Bering Sea. There is low confidence of where the system goes after the weekend. Half of the members from the GEFS have the centers of the low track into the Gulf, crossing over the Alaska Peninsula. Other members have centers scattered around the Bering. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for most of the TAF period. There will be a potential for rain showers and lower ceilings (possibly as low as MVFR) to return to the terminal late Tuesday morning. && $$