Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails snow report

539 FXAK68 PAFC 042337 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 337 PM AKDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A low shifting into the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure ridging building in the northern Interior, will start a warming/drying trend across Southcentral Alaska beginning this evening. Coastal areas will, as usual, remain in a wetter pattern as the trough lingers along the edge of the coast through tomorrow. Rain along the coast will taper off late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the low exits into the southeastern Gulf of Alaska. The warming trend will continue into Monday as the low drifts into the southeastern Gulf and as the ridge over the central and northern Mainland continues to build. Afternoon highs could breach 70 over interior valleys, and perhaps even 75 in a few spots. Potential for thunderstorms will also increase markedly once again as instability increases with the warming temperatures. The highest chance (around 70%) for isolated to widely scattered storms will be focused over the Talkeetnas and Susitna Valley. KM/AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)... A large upper level low centered over the Alaska Peninsula is slowly tracking eastward into the Gulf. Cool and cloudy conditions continue across Southwest Alaska today. Rain is mostly confined to the Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula area, with just a few showers elsewhere. A surface low has formed just ahead of the upper center south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Cold air advection across the Alaska Peninsula is leading to strengthening northwesterly flow, especially from wide bay to Chignik. Meanwhile, a weak low and warm front are lifting slowly northward along the Aleutian chain, leading to light rain and gusty easterly winds from Atka westward. Benign conditions prevail across the remainder of the forecast Bering/Aleutians under the influence of of a ridge of high pressure. A big change in the weather is in store for Southwest AK over the next couple days. As the upper low completely exits to the Gulf and Southcentral tonight through Sunday, ridging will begin to build down from northern AK and into Southwest AK. The strength of the ridge in model guidance is not as strong as in previous days. However, this does not fundamentally change the forecast. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures warming into the 60s to 70s, and development of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Convection will initiate along the thermal trough, which will roughly be centered over the Kuskokwim Valley, and will be aided by weak short-waves embedded in the upper level flow. Storm motion will cause showers and thunderstorms to track southward into the Bristol Bay region. This pattern will hold through Monday. Models are trending toward faster arrival of a trough from the Bering Sea. This will push the axis of greatest convection eastward on Monday, favoring the Kuskokwim Valley eastward to the western Alaska Range and northeastern interior of Bristol Bay. Model spread grows much larger for Tuesday, with differences in the progression of a storm system across the Bering Sea. If this storm reaches Southwest AK, would expect a return to cooler, cloudier, and more stable conditions with areas of rain. If the slower solution works out, there could be another day of convection. The pattern out across the North Pacific and Aleutians is fairly complex and model guidance has been shifting from day to day. However, the general weather trends remain the same. The weak surface low and front will continue to lift northward into the Bering tonight through Sunday, bringing with it a very warm and moist airmass. This will lead to areas of rain, low clouds, and fog. A large upper low southwest of the westernmost Aleutian Islands will track into the Bering by Monday. Models then vary on the interaction with a separate weaker upper low in the Bering and overall progression across the Bering toward Southwest AK. No matter what, expect reinvigoration of the current low and frontal system, with rain and stronger winds spreading eastward early next week. -SEB && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... Unsettled weather and increased winds expected midweek for the eastern Bering Sea, Southwest AK, and the AKPEN as an upper low traverses the Bristol Bay and AKPEN region. This low will then move out out into the western Gulf with increasing rainfall chances for Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. During this same time, a lingering trough over the Copper Basin looks to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms depending on residual cloud cover and instability. Scattered showers and generally cloudy conditions possible for the rest of Southcentral. The Gulf low will slowly meander eastward across the Gulf before gradually dissipating by next weekend. A secondary trough looks to move out of Kamchatka by late in the week with another round of showers possible for Southwest AK; however, long-range models differ significantly on the timing, position, and strength of this trough. Models are also hinting at ridging setting up over the western and central Aleutians with several shortwave troughs moving along the periphery of the ridge...which would allow for periods of showers by late in the week. -PP && .AVIATION... PANC...A front moving up Cook Inlet this afternoon will shift winds to the southeast late this afternoon after it passes over the airport. The rain showers in the vicinity should also taper off and ceilings increase with the trough passage and onset of the Turnagain Arm winds. These winds should then diminish by late in the evening and switch back to the northeast after midnight and remain northerly through Sunday morning. && $$