Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

152 FXAK68 PAFC 200039 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 439 PM AKDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)... Generally speaking, the forecast expectations through the end of the week are little changed, with an overall cool and showery pattern expected to continue. Currently, low pressure resides over the southern AKPen with a shortwave ridge over the Copper River Basin. The Copper Basin has been relatively clear today underneath the ridge, whereas overcast conditions are seen across the rest of Southcentral. The low currently moving near the AKPen and Bristol Bay will crawl slowly east past Kodiak Island and cross the Gulf of Alaska over the next few days, and this will be the main focal mechanism for the continued wet and cloudy conditions. An initial frontal wave moving ahead of the occluded low passed over Kodiak Island this morning and continues northeast into the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su, and Prince William Sound through this evening. Bands of showers will continue along and behind the front as it moves from southwest to northeast throughout the evening. Places currently dry in the Kenai, Mat-Su, and Prince William Sound will see the onset of showers by early evening. For the Copper River Basin, frontal progression will push the ridge out by this evening and bring in more cloud cover. This will also push out any haze still lingering in the area. By early tomorrow morning, a weak low will attempt to form along the surface front`s triple point in the Gulf somewhere in the vicinity of the Barren Islands. A period of Small Craft winds still looks on track to develop along the front south of Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula on Thursday before the front reaches the coast and shears apart by Thursday evening. Farther north, showery conditions will continue for much of interior Southcentral through Friday as weak southerly flow ahead of the weak Gulf low continues to transport moisture into the region. Steadier rain will persist along the coast near Prince William Sound until the low finally begins to shift to the east into the northern Alaska Panhandle and Yukon Territory by late Friday evening. The next system moves into Southwest Alaska late on Friday and sends a front into Southcentral and the Gulf. With southerly upper level flow being maintained, mostly cloudy skies, seasonal temperatures, and additional chances for rain are likely for Southcentral starting Friday night and lasting through Saturday. The highest chances for steady rain Friday night through Saturday will be along the western Alaska Range and along the northern Gulf Coast, especially around and east of Prince William Sound. - PA/AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)... Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals low stratus across the Southwestern Mainland, the Pribilof Islands, the Bering Sea, the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and the Aleutian Chain. More plainly, there is low stratus everywhere this afternoon. A weak low pressure system currently just north of the southern AKPEN continues to slowly move east towards the waters of Bristol Bay. The system moves into Bristol Bay by Thursday morning and then transfers its energy to the western Gulf of Alaska through Thursday afternoon. Off and on showers will continue across Southwest through Thursday. A stronger and wetter system develops in the northern Bering by Friday. The main upper-level trough digs across Siberia Thursday afternoon as shortwave energy rides eastward into the Bering from Kamchatka. The NAM guidance has been aggressive with phasing these two energies together to produce a stronger surface low Friday. Meanwhile, other guidance such as the GFS, Canadian, and European all keep the shortwave energy from Kamchatka moving south of the main trough and out ahead of it as well. Therefore, there is less phasing and a resultant weaker system. The weaker solution is what this forecast package represents. Despite the weaker system, it will be a wet one. Light to moderate rain will arrive to the Pribilof Islands early Friday morning. This rain then moves to the Southwestern Mainland at the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by late Friday morning and across the rest of Southwest through the rest of the day. The low continues into Western Alaska as steady rain across Southwest tapers to showers from west to east. The low will depart Southwest and head for the Gulf through Saturday evening. Behind the low, northerly flow will develop across the eastern Bering as a ridge builds across the central Bering. The main Siberian trough will dig southward across Southwest and across the AKPEN Saturday morning through Saturday evening. This will cause enhanced winds through the gaps of the Eastern Aleutians and the gaps and passes along the Pacific-side of the AKPEN. There is not a lot of cold air expected to drop down from the north as the trough digs, so expect small-craft winds with some gale-force gusts through the gaps and passes of the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Another low pressure system lifts from the North Pacific to the western Bering and Western Aleutians Saturday morning upstream of the ridge in the central Bering. This system will bring in a push of warm and moist tropical to sub-tropical air into the western Bering through Saturday. Rain moves from Shemya Saturday morning to Adak by Saturday evening. By Saturday evening, expect sustained small craft winds across the western Bering. There are indications that winds will strengthen further as pieces of upper- level energy interact and potentially phase with one another towards the second half of the weekend. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the active weather pattern across Southwest and the Bering Sea continues to unfold. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... The long term forecast remains active over Southern Alaska. Sunday will see a low move into the Bering from Kamchatka, leading to gusty winds and rainfall over much of the Bering, including the Pribilof Islands. The Southwest mainland will have ridging over it and thus, weaker winds and low rain chances. There is a decent amount of uncertainty regarding intensity of rainfall and winds with the low. Southcentral will also have a low over the Gulf of Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, the low will have moved out east, with rainfall diminishing over Southcentral. By Monday, the low in the Bering will take a turn to the north due to ridging over the mainland. However, the low`s front will still progress eastward, pushing inland by Monday afternoon as the ridge moves east. This rainfall will last into Tuesday as a trough moves in and reinforces the rainfall. In Southcentral, ridging arrives on Monday, allowing for clearer skies and weaker wind speeds. This will last until Tuesday evening, when the aforementioned trough continues eastward and drapes over Southcentral. The trough will bring rainfall likely across the Susitna Valley and even into Anchorage and Western Kenai. Come Wednesday, uncertainty increases with the potential for a low to move into the Bering. This would bring gusty winds and rainfall across the Aleutians. Southcentral Alaska may see lingering rainfall if the trough moves out slower, otherwise, rainfall will diminish as zonal flow arises. Again, the exact track of features cannot be realized as of now, so the forecast is likely to change. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the period with the potential for some brief drops to MVFR in visibility and ceilings as scattered showers move across the area tonight. Showers will begin to wind down between 09-12Z, though VCSH still possible into the afternoon hours as showers linger along the higher terrain. Winds will remain light generally switching between SE and northerly. && $$