Sheep Mountain Cross Country Ski Trails snow report

049 FXAK68 PAFC 032337 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 337 PM AKDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)... The weather pattern from yesterday, as far as the Southcentral Mainland is concerned, continues for the rest of today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Central and Western Copper River Basin as well as the Northern Susitna Valley the rest of this afternoon and into the evening. Storms will taper off to showers overnight tonight as the atmosphere stabilizes. The weather pattern across the Southcentral mainland, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf remains generally active tonight into the July 4th weekend. An upper-level low currently over Southwest Alaska will continue to dig southeast over the Southwest Mainland and Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) Saturday and eventually make it to Southwestern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday morning. This upper-low will send a few features northward across Southcentral. The first feature associated with this upper low is a frontal system that is currently draped across Southwest Alaska and stretches across the AKPEN to Kodiak Island. This front will lift northward bringing northern portions of Kodiak Island a round of light showers this evening. Rain then moves to Kachemak Bay and the Southern Kenai Peninsula by late tonight or early Saturday morning before advancing up the rest of the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys through the rest of Saturday morning. This batch of rain will taper off across Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys by Saturday afternoon The next feature associated with upper low across Southwest Alaska will be a strong shortwave rounding the base of the low that will cause cyclogenesis southwest of Kodiak Island Saturday morning. This surface will slowly track northeast to Shelikof Strait by Saturday afternoon as Kodiak Island sees steady rain for most of the day. As the front moves north, so does the rain. After a brief break between systems, steady rain reaches the Southern Kenai Peninsula/Homer/Kachemak Bay by Saturday afternoon and advances along the rest of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound by Saturday evening. Anchorage and the lee of the Kenai Mountains will remain mostly dry with weaker lift and southeast flow aloft with this system. However, hi-res guidance is indicating that rain will reform along the Cook Inlet Coast of the Western Kenai Peninsula Saturday afternoon into the evening. Convection-wise, lightning strikes are not as likely for Saturday as they are for the rest of today. If any lightning strikes do occur Saturday, along the Talkeetna Mountains looks to be the best spot and most unstable. Rain continues for Sunday across Kodiak Island and the Eastern Kenai Peninsula as interior areas remain free from steady rain. However, instability will build back across the Copper River Basin and Northern Susitna Valley with a better chance for diurnally- driven showers to produce a few lightning strikes. Chances are higher (30 to 50 percent) for isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon across portions of the Southcentral Interior with temperatures warming and instability able to build more efficiently during the day. Steady rain across Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound finally comes to an end late Sunday night into Monday as the surface low responsible for the wet and soggy July 4th finally pulls away to the Southcentral to Southeast Gulf of Alaska. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Monday)... The dominant weather feature for the day is a large elongated upper level low off the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A leading short- wave trough and surface front has been slowly tracking inland across Southwest AK today, leading to steady light rain and cool temperatures. The forward motion of the upper level low, short- wave and surface front are all slowing, so the area of steady rain will also begin to stall over inland areas of Bristol Bay, the Kuskokwim Valley, and the Kuskokwim Delta. Temperatures aloft with the low center are quite chilly; as low as -6 degrees C at 850mb and -25 degrees C at 500 mb. As a result, any precipitation behind the leading front is showery and ceilings are notably higher in the more unstable airmass. Meanwhile, a strong short-wave on the back side of the low is digging southward across the north-central Bering, helping to focus showers over the Saint Matthew Island waters. High pressure continue to prevail across the southern to western bering Sea and Aleutians, leading to benign weather. A series of storm systems and a tropical airmass is positioned just to the south in the North Pacific, slowly lifting northward toward the Aleutians. The upper level low will track to Bristol Bay Saturday afternoon, with the front and short-wave gradually weakening over interior Southwest AK and precipitation becoming more showery. The aforementioned short-wave on the back side of the low will dig southeastward around the south side of the low, leading to development of steady light rain along the southern Alaska Peninsula tonight, spreading north up the Alaska Peninsula to Naknek, Iliamna and interior Bristol Bay during the day Saturday. The entire storm system will exit eastward to the Gulf Saturday night through Sunday. High pressure and northerly low level flow will lead to warming and drying conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies. This will establish a thermal trough inland which will serve as the focus for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Out west, the ridge in place will gradually be squeezed out by the upper short-wave dropping southward across the central bering and the storm systems lifting northward out of the Pacific. Rain and elevated winds will overspread the Aleutians (from the Rat Islands eastward to Atka) late tonight through Saturday before quickly dissipating. An upper level low over the northwest Pacific combined with short-waves riding the subtropical jet from the Pacific up to the Aleutians will reinvigorate the leading front and help bring additional rainfall to portions of the Aleutians Sunday through Monday. The aforementioned "tropical airmass" will lead to an increase in low clouds and fog along the Aleutians and into the southern Bering Sea. -SEB && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... Sunnier and warmer weather on Tuesday for southcentral Alaska. Tuesday evening will begin to see mostly cloudy with chances of showers from an upper level low entering the Gulf, then exiting by Wednesday. A second upper level low shortly follows continuing the conditions, which is mentioned later. A Bering low north of the Aleutians and Saint Paul Island will progress toward the Bering Strait. The low reaches the eastern Bering by Wednesday and weakens over the Bering Strait before Thursday, bringing showers and wind to the Aleutian chain and Southwest Alaska. An upper level low develops from the weakened Bering low near Kodiak Island Wednesday afternoon. This progresses eastward and brings mostly cloudy skies with showers for the rest of the week for southcentral. -SS && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. Westerly winds pick up slightly this afternoon, with gusts 15 to 20 mph. Winds become southerly and diminish to 10 mph or less after 07Z tonight as a trough works north up Cook Inlet. Areas of rain showers move in with the trough, becoming steadier rainfall overnight into tomorrow morning. Ceilings drop below 5000 ft with the trough, and may drop to MVFR late tonight/early tomorrow morning as rain intensifies. && $$