Snow's Mountain - Waterville Mountain Bike Park snow report

429 FXUS61 KBOX 230716 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 316 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers expected to continue today with some embedded thunder and heavier downpours possible. - Drier through midweek. Turning mostly cloudy, humid and unsettled by late this week into the weekend. Though it won`t be raining all the time, chances for showers/storms will exist on most days Fri- Sat, but severe weather potential looks very limited. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers expected to continue today with some embedded thunder and heavier downpours possible. Showers will continue to impact southern New England today as another wave tracks over the region. Latest mesoanalysis has an area of increased moisture transport at 925 mb from the S/SW, so showers moving into this area over RI and SE MA may intensify and produce higher rainfall rates, especially as any pockets of MUCAPE are encountered. Based on the latest guidance, a more south track for the next wave is favored with heavier, more widespread rain remaining mostly to the south of southern New England. The exception would be along the south coast and into the Cape and Islands where heavier showers remain possible. PWATs over this area heading into the afternoon hours are also forecast around 2.0-2.10". High-res guidance also has some MUCAPE over much of SE MA into the Cape and Islands through the afternoon, which would help produce periods of heavier downpours and some embedded thunder within any showers that develop. The RAP also has a burst of some elevated MUCAPE values over Cape Cod early this morning that could favor thunder there. With the showers we`ve seen overnight producing occasional lightning and heavier downpours in CT and now heading into RI, this is not out of the question. With regards to totals, thinking has not changed much as totals in the 1-2" range remain the main expectation with this system. Flash flooding is not a widespread concern considering the drought conditions we`ve been experiencing, but flashier areas including urban and poor drainage areas may see some flooding under any heavier rainfall rates. With persistent cloud cover today, highs will likely not climb higher than the 70s. Rain should clear out of the region heading into tonight as the wave moves offshore, though showers may linger early tonight over the Cape and Islands. Winds shift NW and drier air makes its way into the region in the wake of the passing cold front, which will also aid in clearing remaining cloud cover heading into Wednesday. Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 50s and low 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier through midweek. Turning mostly cloudy, humid and unsettled by late this week into the weekend. Though it won`t be raining all the time, chances for showers/storms will exist on most days Fri-Sat, but severe weather potential looks very limited. After the cold front pulls away later tonight, we get into a drier weather pattern Wed onward thru the daytime hrs Thurs. Our weather pattern then turns more unsettled for late in the week into at least the early part of the weekend. Broadly-cyclonic, quasi- zonal pattern with enhanced westerly 500 mb flow stretches from the Gt Lakes region to the Northeast states in this period. Salient large-scale features in this period by early Thurs night include one mid-level shortwave trough over the Gt Lakes region, another weaker 500 mb disturbance near the central Plains, with an elongated, quasi- stationary frontal boundary draping itself from the OH/mid-MS Valley eastward to the mid-Atlantic/southern New England vicinity. Zonal regimes like this one are typically prone to timing errors when it comes to precip/thunder chances and are also sensitive to daily convective details which are unknown at this time horizon. Adding to that uncertainty is there are differences in the strength of the initial/lead Gt Lakes shortwave, which influence whether or not better rain chances move in by Thurs night. GFS guidance is weaker/broader and thus more progressive with rain chances into New England by Thursday night, while the international guidance feature a stronger trough and is slower to move PoP in until Fri. I would rate confidence in the timing of rain/thunder chances later this week into the weekend as lower than average, given the above sources of uncertainty. Forecast carries a rather non-descript Chance PoP for most of this timeframe; it won`t be raining/thundering the whole time, but ID`ing those periods is subject to the timing details become more in-focus. That said, an early estimate for rain/thunder chances is more centered into Fri aftn/Fri evening with the lead shortwave, then increasing again into at least the south coast to areas south of the Mass Pike Sat/Sat night as the central Plains shortwave moves through or just south of Southern New England. Although mid-level flow is seasonably strong, much of this period is mostly cloudy and rather humid, but also one with limited diurnal heating leading to weak instability. Indeed, NSSL machine-learning severe weather progs offer tempered severe weather probabilities on Fri. Wouldn`t rule out a strong storm or two on Fri, but early lean is that the prospects of storms becoming severe seem limited. High pressure and dry weather return for the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update Through 12z...Moderate Confidence. Areas of IFR/LIFR have developed and should continue spreading eastward heading into the morning hours. The risk for isolated embedded thunder remains as showers moving across the region continue to sporadically produce some flashes. Converted PROB30s to TEMPOs to account for this risk. Visibilities towards the Cape and Island terminals may periodically dip to 1/2SM or 1/4SM in showers heading into the early morning. Winds will continue to be mostly SE. Tuesday...Moderate Confidence. IFR/LIFR at least for the morning. Scattered showers through the day with a few embedded downpours possible. Embedded storms possible for SE MA terminals through mid-morning. Scattered showers continue through much of the day. There is another risk for an isolated storm by the afternoon into early evening; however, confidence remains lower on this potential. Wind NW 5-10 kts, shifting NE at BOS in the afternoon. Precipitation ends from west to east gradually by around 18Z, with improving ceilings after 20Z. Sub VFR conditions will linger the longest for Cape and Island terminals. Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence Confidence is lower regarding improvement to VFR from MVFR/IFR conditions. NW winds should aid in clearing, VFR should be common across the region by Wednesday morning. Light NW winds around 5 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence. Rain. Moderate to heavy at times. LIFR ceilings are possible. Potential for embedded thunder remains through 12Z. Scattered showers continue Tuesday with NW winds shifting NE in the afternoon at 8-12 kts. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday...High confidence. Rain and a few embedded storms continue before finally moving off to the east this evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall at times expected, resulting in poor visibility less than 1 mile at times. Seas 2-4 ft with SW winds at 10-15 kt shifting NW in the wake of a passing cold front this evening into tonight. Winds then shift more SW for Wednesday, remaining around 10 kt. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Hrencecin AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin