Andes Tower Hills Snow Report

049 FXUS63 KFGF 040815 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 315 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - No significant weather related hazards thru the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Updated key messages as all chances of t-storms have moved out of the forecast area as of 08z. Pretty quiet pattern begins today and lasts thru end of the week with no significant weather related hazards. UPDATE Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 Thunderstorms lingering in lakes country of central MN continue to migrate east and northeast. This is the last gasp of this evening`s potential severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail, of which is expected to exit our area by midnight. Otherwise, breezy winds will remain tonight within the post frontal air mass as well as widely scattered showers. Tuesday will feel like an early fall day - the first of the season. Breezy northwest winds with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures maxing out only in the low to mid 70s along with much less humidity. Tomorrow night/Wednesday morning will be crisp and cool with temperatures dipping into the 40s for several locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 ...Synopsis... SW flow ahead of a larger mid level trough is in place across the Northern Plains, with a PV height anomaly associated with a mid level shortwave ejecting into eastern ND within this flow. Higher level clouds in SD to the south of this PV anomaly could be the next area of forcing that could trigger initiation along the frontal zone in the 22-00Z period. The frontal zone is currently in place from Lake of the Woods to just south of Grand Forks and just west of Fargo and is starting to show signs of moving east-southeast on radar/satellite ahead of this mid level wave. Good forcing for ascent and at least elevated instability will continue to support showers and thunderstorms (some severe) into the evening before dry/stable air arrives later this evening/overnight. The larger scale trough/upper low becomes a more dominate feature for our region through the week as it stalls and deepens over the Hudson Bay region and flattens the larger scale ridging to the south. This results in either weaker NW flow or westerly flow and the stronger storm track mainly remaining in Canada. However, flow will at least periodically allow for some influence of waves rounding the mid/upper low and periodic shower/thunderstorm chances. The signal for PoPs is generally washed out by the variability of these features in Canada, and machine learning is not highlighting a specific period for impacts. After cooler than average temperatures Tuesday, this pattern will generally support temperatures in seasonal ranges for most days into the weekend (+/- 1 standard deviation of normal), and a break from the much hotter temperatures in the 90+ range. ...Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today.. Very high effective shear will be in place with values already in the 50-70kt range across our CWA. As deeper layer shear vectors will tend to be parallel or near parallel to the frontal zone there should be a tendency for clustering of thunderstorm activity that develops later this afternoon/evening. Severe mode and coverage will ultimately come down to timing of initiation and continued destabilization along/ahead of the frontal zone before sunset. Shear profiles support supercell development, however discrete mode may be hard to come by outside of the early part of initiation. Tornado threat will require surface based parcels which for now appear hard to come by, however with clearing that is just starting to occur in southeast ND/west central MN ahead of the front cap erosion could continue and create a window for this threat early in the event with right movers that do develop. More likely scenarios favor elevated cells and at least a window for transient elevated supercell threat which would primarily favor large hail as a threat. Whether clusters can grow upscale with strong enough cold pools in this shear profiles. Line normal vectors are going to tend to be towards the northeast (though the critical angle will be a bit higher due to the strong shear environment). Backward propagation or training potential along the frontal zone raises the potential for localized heavy rain threat particularly with PWATs exceeding 1.5" along the front. As the front should be progressing quickly eastward there shouldn`t be more than 1-3hr of this type of training, but this could be enough with higher rats for localized flash flood potential if this happens over a town/urban area where there is poor drainage. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 IFR ceilings at KBJI are the main impact within TAFs. These ceilings are forecast to remain in place through 12Z before lifting into MVFR and IFR by 15Z. Light rain/drizzle is also forecast underneath these IFR ceilings at KBJI as well. Widely scattered light rain showers are possible before 09Z. Winds will remain breezy out of the west and northwest, with gusts 15-20kt during the afternoon Tuesday. Fair weather cumulus rooted generally around 4kft are also forecast at all TAF sites. Fog is unlikely tonight due to winds remaining elevated. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Riddle DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...CJ