Andes Tower Hills Snow Report

321 FXUS63 KFGF 240446 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northern end of some convection has been tracking through the Devils Lake basin for the last couple of hours, with the main impacts being some rain up to 4 tenths of an inch so far and some lightning. Heavier cells tracking southeastward through Wells and Foster counties, but on a weakening trend as they move into less unstable air. Most of the CAMs have the complex weakening as it moves towards the Red River later tonight, although a few models break out some stronger convection again on the northwest side. Given cell currently tracking into northwestern ND from MT, will keep a close eye on the activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming zonal overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could work into parts of eastern North Dakota overnight as warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Upper flow then becomes slightly southwest late overnight into Monday morning. This will be in response to the shortwave and weak upper low moving across southern Manitoba late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the associated cold front sweeps across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Warm air advection ahead of the front will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 80s across most of the area. Slightly cooler temps return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances Late Tuesday through Thursday will be minimal, with PoPs increasing once more late Friday into the weekend. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main challenge throughout the TAF period will be shower and thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the Devils Lake Basin. This activity will continue pushing eastward overnight, impacting KDVL, KGFK and KTVF. Instability is greatest further west, therefore maintained a PROB30 for -TSRA at KDVL, while at the other two terminals maintained -SHRA. Clouds will thin out as showers/storms decrease in coverage on Monday morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 14 knots accompanied by a few gusts to 20 knots within the Red River Valley will prevail Monday afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Monday afternoon and evening, persisting into the overnight. At this time, low predictability in where storms form precludes any mention of them within the last few hours of the TAF. Once timing and location information becomes more clear, future iterations of the TAF will likely need PROB30s or TEMPOs for at least a handful of terminals. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Rafferty