Caberfae Peaks Ski & Golf Resort Snow Report

213 FXUS63 KAPX 100657 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 257 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Seasonably warm temperatures continue through Monday. -Temperatures fall back to normal this Tuesday with periodic shower chances by midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Midlevel heights begin to rise across the central U.S, supporting subsidence aloft and overall dry and quiet weather to build this weekend. Surface analysis depicts 1032mb high pressure centered over Northern Ontario while 996mb low pressure over Manitoba pushes a weak warm front across Northern Michigan. Warm air advection combined with a moderate pressure gradient across the Great Lakes Region will support near record-breaking temperatures today along with highs in the 70s through Monday with breezy southern flow. The second half of the forecast period takes a sharp turn back to normal October temperatures as the aforementioned rigging pattern breaks down and quickly lowers heights across the Northern U.S. H8 temperatures, currently around 20 degrees, quickly fall back into the single digits, supporting highs in the 50s for most locations. At the same time, a small wave develops lee of the Canadian Rockies and progresses to the Great Lakes Region Monday night. Light showers will be observed across the CWA, but only a general tenth or less of QPF is expected. Another wave follows shortly behind and continues rain chances around the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Forecast Details: Today, Sunday, and Monday: Conditions remain dry through the entirety of the weekend as any rain potential from the northern extent of Isaia`s disheveled moisture plume remains confined to Southern Michigan and the Ohio Valley. Aforementioned warm air advection will commence this morning as pressure gradient force winds create breezy southern flow gusting well into the 20s. Temperatures appear to remain slightly lower compared to yesterday`s guidance as a more southerly oriented fetch leads to less downslope heating. Regardless, near record breaking heat builds this afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 70s. The apex of aforementioned ridging breaks down this Sunday and slightly lowers temperatures around 70 this Sunday and Monday. Tuesday through Friday Outlook: A midlevel weak wave originating from Northern Alberta develops surface low pressure with an apparent stationary boundary and digs across the Great Lakes region Monday night through Tuesday morning. Moisture tied to this system becomes cut off from its Pacific source and appears to be decaying as it transits across the Great Lakes Region, resulting in pretty marginal QPF amounts. Highest total rainfall amounts remain around a tenth inch for most parts of the CWA. Latest ensembles appear to have much less rainfall for beyond the midweek as longwave troughing with closed low pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest settles over the southwest U.S. next week and breaks down before reaching the northwoods. Some moisture and subsequent rainfall can still be expected at this time, but with much lower amounts compared to yesterday`s guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 VFR is expected through the entirety of the forecast period as a warm front moves this morning across Northern Michigan. No rainfall is expected with the front, but a brief period of 8000 ft cloud cover will move northward this morning followed by gusty winds building from the south. Surface gusts in the mid/upper 20s can be expected through this evening with SW wind shear developing overnight through Sunday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...SJC