Devil's Elbow Snow Report

396 FXUS61 KBUF 060748 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 348 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry uneventful weather expected today through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry uneventful weather expected today through Tuesday. A cool advection will continue with 850 mb temps getting down around +9C. With lake temps still sitting around +22/+23C, this will be enough to elicit a weak lake response. A NNE cross-lake flow over Lake Ontario will produce some lake clouds south of that lake, and with an added boost from upslope flow, there will also be a few light lake enhanced showers...with the best chances for these found across the Finger Lakes region through early this morning. Otherwise...surface high pressure over the upper Great Lakes builds south into the lower Great Lakes region today and into Labor Day. This will end any shower potential with dry weather expected through Monday, and even through the day Tuesday. We will also see a gradual warming trend as we work through the first half of the upcoming week. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will potentially arrive Wednesday as a low moves east across Ontario and Quebec while sending its trailing cold front across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cool NNE flow will support at time low VFR to MVFR CIGS and even some IFR-LIFR CIGS across the higher terrain, especially across the higher terrain of the S. Tier. Given the cool airmass flowing across the warm waters of the lake we will even see some lake driven showers through the early morning hours. Also...river valley fog will be possible across the S. Tier which may at times impact KJHW through 12Z. After sunrise, any lower ceilings and visibilities will improve as diurnal influences take over with VFR resuming areawide through the rest of the day. Tonight...high pressure will settle in across the region with mainly VFR across area terminals. River valley fog will again develop with the potential for IFR-LIFR conditions across the S. Tier. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Localized flight restrictions possible. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A NNE flow of 12-17 knots will be possible on Lake Ontario through this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient briefly tightens on the southeastern periphery of the high as it builds toward the lower lakes. Waves of 2-3 feet will be possible for the southcentral and southeastern portions of Lake Ontario during this time. High pressure settles over the lower Great Lakes for the first part of the new work week, with mainly light winds and little to no wave action through at least Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR/JM