Hickory Hills Snow Report

756 FXUS63 KAPX 020316 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1016 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue into mid week, with temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s - An initial wave of widespread light to moderate rain moves through Tuesday, with intermittent chances lingering through the end of the work week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Current advected layer PWAT imagery shows the deep sub tropical moisture plume flowing over the Desert SW, leading to widespread heavy rain and flooding there. At the same time, surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic is seeping south and beginning to surge lower level Gulf moisture northward into the central plains. In the upper levels, a long wave trough continues to deepen southward over the western US, which will amplify the pattern over the next several hours. Broad upper troughing exists over the central and eastern US with an embedded shortwave under the ridging, weakening as is continues east. Cloud cover will continue to move in this evening and tonight, which should limit fog development in most spots. Far southeast Chippewa county could see less cloud cover, resulting in a stronger surface inversion as warmer lake waters persist - leading to the best fog chances tonight. By Monday morning, the positive to neutrally tilted long wave troughing will reach the crest of the Rockies. A secondary piece of energy over the CAN/US border will keep this long wave troughing larger and curved. An upper jet streak rounding the base and extending into the central plains will work to enhance lee cyclogenesis over NE/SD. The secondary piece of upper energy will deepen and support this northern surface cyclone as it tracks towards MN Monday, while the long wave troughing still extends down to TX. Surface pressure falls will be seen on Monday over northern MI as the cyclone to the west deepens and reaches MN by late in the day. South winds will gradually become breezy by the late afternoon for northern MI, with mostly overcast skies. Temperatures will warm into the 60s, with the surface warm front lifting through the area Monday evening. Mild overnight temperatures will be seen as the rain shield associated with the cyclone approaches Lk MI`s eastern shores. There is increasing confidence that deep moisture will be present in the central to northern plains, thanks to the sub tropical plume of mid to upper level moisture meeting the lower level Gulf moisture. PWATs of 1.3 to 1.7" are within the most likely solution space for this plume, which the HREF takes as far north as WI by late Monday. This evident WAA will bring a LLJ of 30 to 40kts around 2 to 4 kft over MI by early Tuesday. Gusty south to southwest winds will be seen over the coastal and coastal adjacent areas Tuesday. The initial surge of the warm, moist airmass just after midnight Tuesday will result in a surge of the precip shield over the U.P. and parts of NW lower. Aloft, upper ridging continues to exist over the L.P.. which results in mostly stable layers and little to no jet dynamics to increase precip chances farther south. After the initial surge of light to moderate rain Tuesday AM, a few different surface features will battle for the upper troughs focus and energy.. Most guidance favors this resulting in a slowly weakening cyclone over MN/WI for the remainder of Tuesday into early Wednesday. A break in rain, with warm temperatures, cloud cover and breezy south winds will be seen during the second half of Tuesday. Here is where global models start to diverge. A certain group of ensembles generate a closed upper low over MN/IA by Wednesday morning, which would bring more favorable jet dynamics over norther MI for a return of light to moderate rain which would move over much of the area Wednesday (with shower chances into Thursday and Friday as it creeps over northern MI and eastward). Another solution keeps it an open wave, which results in less forcing available and leads to less overall precipitation. There are even variations on how the closed low is deepening, with WPC clusters showing only a couple of percentages difference between the first 3 for Wednesday (day 4). This confirms higher variation with how global guidance is handling the larger scale forcing Wednesday and beyond. With all of this said, we have higher confidence in some things; first it will rain at least a little for most of northern MI (with NW lower and eastern upper seeing the most), temperatures will warm to near records Tuesday behind the warm front, anomalous moisture will move into the region late Monday and linger through mid week, and south winds will be gusty Tuesday. The uncertainty is in how much rain, will there be showers and storm potential, and when will this moist/warm airmass move out. With that said, we can also say for certain that we do not see a significant cool down in the forecast any time soon as mild Pacific air continues to flood the CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Still expecting some IFR producing mist and stratus to develop early this morning at KCIU, with these low conditions lifting as we head further through the morning. VFR conditions elsewhere into at least early this afternoon under some passing mid level clouds. Deeper moisture and attendant MVFR producing cigs arrive from west to east across the taf locations later this afternoon through this evening. Some showers are possible as well this evening, but better rain chances look to arrive just after this taf period. Light winds will continue. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELD AVIATION...MSB