Missaukee Mountain Snow Report

004 FXUS63 KIWX 240357 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1157 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy prior to sunset with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. - Dangerous swimming conditions through this evening on southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk. - Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity through Tuesday. - Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening (30-60% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on radar this afternoon as the system`s attendant mid level trough pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure settles over the Great Lakes this period and dry low levels will ensure VFR conditions. Expect just a SCT diurnal cu deck Monday afternoon with bases 4-5 kft. WNW winds gust up to 20 kts during peak afternoon mixing. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...AGD