Missaukee Mountain Snow Report

916 FXUS63 KIWX 030551 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 151 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous swimming conditions are expected at Lake Michigan beaches along the La Porte County, IN and Berrien County, MI shoreline through Monday morning. Life-threatening waves and currents are expected. A beach hazards statement is in effect. For details, visit www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards - Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through the first part of the weekend. Otherwise, dry with mostly clear skies. - Conditions are expected to warm again next weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 The slow moving upper trough responsible for rain over past few days will become increasing sheared in nature into this evening and will become more progressive as it shifts to the eastern Great Lakes by Monday morning. Weakening nature of this trough has left an elongated mid level deformation zone across far NE IN/NW OH this afternoon which was a focal point for some locally heavy rainfall earlier this morning. Better deep column moisture axis is beginning to exit this area this afternoon and expecting these deformation-forced showers to continue to sag southeast and exit the area early this evening. The potential for flooding has diminished and the Flood Watch for NE IN/NW OH has been cancelled. An upper speed max diving across the Great Lakes region may aid in the development of a few isolated showers this afternoon, particularly along what appears to be a weak differential heating boundary across Lower Michigan downstream of this trough. With lessening deep layer moisture these showers are not expected to pose any significant hydro threat before diminishing early this evening. An overall quiet pattern will then take shape tonight through Wednesday. A longwave upper ridge building across the Mid/Upper MS Valley will allow an expansive low level anticyclone to overspread the Great Lakes on Monday. This should provide slightly below normal temperatures for Monday with some slight modification to near normal temps for Tuesday. Guidance has been fairly consistent in a stronger warm/moist low level advection push late Wednesday night into Thursday downstream of broad eastern Pacific wave. It appears as though local area may be located on southern periphery of stronger deep layer shear profiles, and possible late tonight/Thursday morning timing leads to low confidence in any isolated strong/severe threat. Likely PoPs have been maintained on Thursday, but still a good deal of uncertainty exists regarding instability magnitudes during the day Thursday depending on evolution of upstream convection late Wed night/Thu AM. Much of the long term period will favor a wavering baroclinic zone with periodic chances of showers and storms as the potential exists for several progressive waves to affect area in west-northwest upper flow into next weekend. Predictability is on the low side with 12- hour PoPs in this pattern, but medium range guidance does seem to suggest that longwave ridging may amplify across central CONUS for early next week with a transition back to above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 146 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals through the period, with MVFR conditions possible this morning at both sites due to BR development under mostly clear skies with light winds. For now, have both sites dropping to 4SM between 9-12/13z. BR is more likely at KFWA thanks to lingering low level moisture, with some models indicating drops to IFR/2SM briefly. Kept it conservative for now, will modify if it appears IFR conditions are more of a possibility. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 AM CDT this morning for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177- 277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...MCD